Honestly, if you thought the Juan Soto saga was going to be the only thing we’d be talking about this winter, you haven't been paying attention. Baseball is weird. We all spent months obsessing over whether Steve Cohen would actually drop a billion dollars on one guy, and while the Mets did eventually land their whale, the rest of the market moved in ways that basically nobody predicted.
It’s January 2026. The dust is finally starting to settle. We’re seeing a landscape where the "haves" and "have-nots" aren't just divided by payroll, but by who was willing to get creative with deferrals and who was brave enough to gamble on guys over 30.
The Juan Soto Aftermath and the New Reality
Let's just address the $765 million elephant in the room. Juan Soto is a Met. It happened. 15 years. It’s a number that feels fake, like something you’d see in a video game with the "budget" setting turned off. But the real story of mlb 2025 free agents isn't just Soto; it’s how his contract fundamentally broke the middle of the market.
When the Yankees "lost" Soto (if you can call a 16-year, $760 million final offer losing), they didn't just sit on their hands. They pivoted. Hard. They went out and grabbed Max Fried for $218 million over eight years. It was a classic Bronx move—if you can't have the best hitter, go buy the best lefty starter.
But look at the ripple effect. Because the Mets and Yankees were so focused on the top of the mountain, teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks found windows that usually aren't open for them.
Why the Diamondbacks Won the Pitching Lottery
Most experts—and I use that term loosely because, again, baseball is unpredictable—thought Corbin Burnes would end up back in a big-market city. Maybe a return to the Dodgers? Or maybe the Red Sox?
Instead, he went to the desert.
The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal. Why? Family. It’s easy to forget these guys are human. Burnes has lived in Arizona for years. His wife had twins recently. He took slightly less money—or at least a different structure—just to stay home.
"The family aspect of this was huge for us," Burnes said after the signing.
It’s a massive win for Arizona. They now have a rotation headed by Burnes and Zac Gallen. That’s terrifying for the rest of the NL West.
The Roki Sasaki "Cheat Code"
You can't talk about mlb 2025 free agents without mentioning the Dodgers’ latest move. It almost feels unfair at this point. After already having Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glassnow, they went and landed Roki Sasaki.
Since Sasaki is under 25, he didn't get a $300 million contract. He couldn't. He signed for a $6.5 million bonus. Think about that. The most electric arm in the world is making less than some middle-relief guys.
He’s 23. He throws 102 mph. And he chose the Dodgers because, well, of course he did. It’s the "Kevin Durant to the Warriors" moment of baseball. The Dodgers had to trade for extra international bonus pool space from the Phillies and Reds just to make the numbers work, but they got it done.
The Alex Bregman Pivot
Then there’s the Alex Bregman situation. He had a weird 2025. He spent a year in Boston on a "prove it" style deal after the 2024 market didn't give him what he wanted. He hit .273, dealt with some quad issues, and basically showed he’s still a top-tier third baseman.
The Chicago Cubs just made it official: five years, $175 million.
It’s a huge gamble for Chicago. Bregman is 31. By the time that contract ends, he’ll be 37. But the Cubs are desperate for leadership and a guy who doesn't strike out. Bregman’s 13.4% career strikeout rate is exactly what that lineup needed. Interestingly, the deal includes $70 million in deferred money.
Everyone is copying the Dodgers now. Deferrals are the new market currency.
Winners and Losers You Didn't Expect
Usually, the "winners" of free agency are just the teams that spent the most. Not this year.
- The Baltimore Orioles: They didn't get Burnes back, which hurts. But they landed Pete Alonso for $155 million. Pairing "The Polar Bear" with Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday? That’s a lot of home runs.
- The Boston Red Sox: They missed on Fried. They missed on re-signing Bregman. But they did extend Garrett Crochet (who they traded for) to a six-year, $170 million deal. It’s a "quality over quantity" approach.
- The Chicago White Sox: In a move no one saw coming, they signed Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to a two-year, $34 million deal. It’s a low-risk, high-reward power play for a team that really needs a spark.
What This Means for Your Team
If your team didn't spend $200 million this winter, it’s easy to feel like they failed. But look at the remaining mlb 2025 free agents. As of mid-January, guys like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger are still looking for homes.
The market has bifurcated. There is the "Soto Tier," and then there is everyone else.
Teams are becoming much more wary of the "aging curve." We're seeing fewer 10-year deals for guys in their 30s. Unless you’re a generational talent like Soto, the "standard" elite contract is shrinking to 5 or 6 years.
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Actionable Insights for the Rest of the Offseason
If you’re a fan or just a casual observer of the Hot Stove, here is what you should be watching as we approach Spring Training:
- The "Bellinger" Watch: Cody Bellinger is still out there. He’s the ultimate "wait-and-see" player. A team like the Blue Jays or Mariners could swoop in late and get him on a high-AAV, short-term deal.
- Trade Market Volatility: Now that the top starters are gone, teams that missed out (like the Orioles or Red Sox) are going to get aggressive in trades. Watch for names like Luis Castillo or Dylan Cease to pop up in rumors.
- The Luxury Tax Threshold: Several teams, including the Cubs, are hovering right near the tax line. Any more moves from them will likely involve shedding salary elsewhere.
Free agency isn't over just because the big names signed. The final weeks of January are where the smartest GMs build their benches and find the "one-year wonders" that actually win divisions.
Keep an eye on the smaller, one-year deals. In a world of $700 million contracts, sometimes the $8 million veteran catcher is the one who actually saves your season in August.
The landscape of mlb 2025 free agents has shifted the power balance in the National League significantly. With the Dodgers adding Sasaki and Snell, and the Mets locking up Soto, the NL is top-heavy. If you're an American League fan, the path to the World Series might have just gotten a little bit clearer—assuming you can get past the Yankees' new-look rotation.
Check the latest transaction wires daily as we head into February. The "bargain bin" phase of free agency is about to begin, and that's usually where the most interesting drama happens.