Missouri’s political landscape is a weird beast. If you just looked at the top-line numbers from the missouri senate race 2024, you might think it was just another sleepy win for a Republican incumbent in a deep-red state. Josh Hawley won. Lucas Kunce lost. Business as usual, right? Not exactly. Honestly, when you dig into the 1,651,907 votes Hawley pulled in versus the 1,243,728 that went to Kunce, there’s a story about a shifting state that the national pundits basically ignored.
The final tally landed at 55.6% for Hawley and 41.8% for Kunce.
On paper, that's a double-digit blowout. But in the world of Missouri politics, those numbers are actually kind of loud. You've got to remember that Donald Trump cleared the state by over 18 points on that same Tuesday night. Hawley? He won by about 14. That four-point gap represents thousands of Missourians who walked into a booth, checked the box for a Republican president, and then decided they weren’t quite sold on the guy who’s been their Senator since 2019. It's a fascinating bit of "split-ticket" voting that people usually say doesn't happen anymore.
The Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce Showdown
The vibe of this campaign was aggressive from the jump. You had Josh Hawley, the Ivy League-educated populist who loves talking about "manhood" and taking on Big Tech, going up against Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran who looks like he could bench press a small car and runs on a platform of "populism for the rest of us."
Kunce tried something different. He didn't run as a standard-issue Democrat. He didn't take corporate PAC money. Basically, he spent the better part of a year touring small towns that Democrats usually don't even bother to put on a map. He talked about "monopolies" and "corporate capture" more than he talked about standard partisan talking points. And for a minute there, it looked like it might actually make the missouri senate race 2024 a nail-biter.
Fundraising was wild. Kunce actually out-raised Hawley in several quarters, pulling in over $11 million by late summer. Hawley eventually caught up and then some, ending the cycle having raised over $22 million, but the fact that a Democrat in Missouri was even in the same financial ballpark was a shock to the system.
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It wasn't just about the two guys at the top, though. The energy on the ground was being fueled by things that had nothing to do with candidate bios.
The Ballot Initiative Factor
You can't talk about the missouri senate race 2024 without talking about Amendment 3. This was the measure to put reproductive rights back into the state constitution. It passed. Not by a lot—about 51% to 49%—but it passed in a state where abortion had been almost entirely banned.
Then you had Proposition A. That one was even more of a landslide, with about 58% of voters saying yes to raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and requiring paid sick leave.
Here is where it gets confusing:
- Missourians voted for a higher minimum wage.
- They voted to protect abortion access.
- They also voted for Josh Hawley, who generally opposes those specific policies.
This "Missouri Paradox" is something that drives political consultants crazy. It shows a state that is culturally conservative but economically—and on some social issues—way more progressive than the "red state" label suggests. Kunce tried to bridge that gap by leaning into the economic stuff, but at the end of the day, the Republican "R" next to Hawley's name acted like a massive safety net in the rural counties.
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Where the Race Was Won (and Lost)
If you look at the county map, it’s mostly a sea of red with a few blue islands. Hawley absolutely crushed it in places like Howell County (83%) and Texas County (85%). These are the regions where his message of traditional values and fighting the "woke" establishment resonates deeply.
Kunce did what he had to do in the cities. He won St. Louis City with over 80% of the vote and carried St. Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City). He even managed to win Boone County, home to the University of Missouri, with about 54%. But to win a missouri senate race 2024 as a Democrat, you don't just need to win the big cities; you have to not get totally obliterated in the "pink" suburbs.
St. Charles and Clay counties were the real killers for the Kunce campaign. These are the suburban battlegrounds where elections used to be won or lost. Hawley won St. Charles by 17 points and Clay by 6. If Kunce had been able to pull those within 2 or 3 points, we’d be talking about a very different Wednesday morning.
The Third Party Spoilers?
Usually, third parties are just a footnote. In 2024, they took up a small but notable chunk of the pie.
- W.C. Young (Libertarian): 1.2%
- Jared Young (Better Party): 0.7%
- Nathan Kline (Green): 0.7%
Combined, these candidates pulled about 2.6% of the total vote. In a race decided by 14 points, they weren't exactly "spoilers," but they do represent a growing group of Missouri voters who are basically exhausted by both major parties.
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Why Hawley Ultimately Held On
Hawley is a very disciplined campaigner. He knows exactly who his base is and he talks to them constantly. While Kunce was out there doing town halls in rural areas, Hawley was framing the race as a choice between "Missouri values" and a "radical" national agenda.
He also benefited from a massive incumbency advantage. People know him. They see him on the news. Even if they don't love every single thing he does, there's a certain level of "better the devil you know" that kicks in during a high-stakes presidential year. Plus, having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket was like a rising tide that lifted all Republican boats in the state.
One thing that kinda flew under the radar was Hawley's shift toward a more pro-labor stance on some issues, like his support for the UAW strikers. It was a smart move. It blunted some of Kunce's "working class" attacks and made it harder for the Democrat to paint him as just another corporate Republican.
What’s Next for Missouri Politics?
So, Hawley is back in DC for another six years. Kunce is... well, probably not going away, considering how much infrastructure he built. But the real "actionable" takeaway from the missouri senate race 2024 isn't about the candidates—it's about the voters.
If you’re looking to understand where Missouri goes from here, stop looking at the candidates and start looking at the ballot measures. The fact that Missourians will pass progressive policies through initiatives while electing conservative senators suggests a massive disconnect between party identity and actual policy preference.
Actionable Insights for the Future
- Watch the Courts: Now that Amendment 3 passed, expect a mountain of lawsuits as the state legislature tries to figure out how much they can still regulate. If you're a voter, keep an eye on your local reps; they’ve already signaled they want to "tweak" what the voters just approved.
- Wages and Business: If you own a small business in Missouri, you need to prep for the $13.75 minimum wage hike starting January 2025, eventually hitting $15 in 2026. This isn't a "maybe"—it's the law now.
- The Suburban Shift: If you’re a political junkie, keep an eye on Platte and Clay counties. These areas are getting younger and more diverse. They are the "canary in the coal mine" for whether Missouri remains a deep-red state or starts trending back toward "purple" status over the next decade.
The 2024 cycle proved that Missouri isn't a monolith. It's a complicated, sometimes contradictory state where people are perfectly fine voting for a Republican Senator and a $15 minimum wage on the exact same ballot. Hawley won the battle, but the war over the state's identity is clearly still going on.
Check the official Missouri Secretary of State website for the final certified precinct-level breakdowns if you want to see exactly how your neighborhood voted. It's usually the best way to see the real trends before the talking heads start spinning them.