If you’ve spent any time in Starkville lately, you know the vibe is... complicated. Honestly, it’s been a rollercoaster that mostly felt like it was stuck on the drop. We went into the Jeff Lebby era with these massive expectations for a "Showtime" offense, but the actual Mississippi State football results have told a much grittier, more frustrating story.
Between a brutal 2-10 finish in 2024 and a 2025 campaign that saw its fair share of heartbreaks before a Duke’s Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest earlier this month, the Bulldogs are in the thick of a massive rebuild.
The 2025 Campaign: Progress or Just More of the Same?
Let’s look at the most recent stretch. Most folks were looking for a leap in Lebby’s second year. We saw it, sort of. The Bulldogs finished the 2025 regular season with a 5-7 record. Better than two wins? Yeah. But that 1-7 mark in SEC play still stings like a sunburn.
The season actually started with a lot of juice. State ripped off four straight wins to open the year.
- A solid 34-17 road win at Southern Miss.
- An emotional 24-20 victory over No. 12 Arizona State at Davis Wade.
- A 63-0 blowout against Alcorn State.
- A 38-10 handling of Northern Illinois.
Then the SEC schedule hit. It was like running into a brick wall. The Bulldogs dropped a heartbreaker to Tennessee in overtime (41-34) and then got handled by Texas A&M. There was that one shining moment on November 1st where State went into Fayetteville and beat Arkansas 38-35—a game where Blake Shapen finally looked like the guy Lebby promised us. But the season ended on a four-game skid, including a 38-19 loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and that 43-29 bowl loss to Wake Forest on January 2nd.
Why the Defense is Still the Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about Mississippi State football results without mentioning the defense. Or the lack thereof. In 2024, State had the worst statistical defense in the SEC. They were giving up over 460 yards a game. It was a sieve.
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Lebby tried to fix it by bringing in former head coaches like Mike MacIntyre and Paul Rhodes as analysts to help Coleman Hutzler. Did it work? It was better, but "better" is a relative term when you're still giving up 40+ points to Georgia and Wake Forest. The pass rush was the biggest culprit. Last year, the unit finished dead last in the league in sacks. If you can't touch the quarterback in this league, you're basically toast.
Breaking Down the Jeff Lebby "Showtime" Offense
Everyone talks about the "Veer and Shoot." It’s supposed to be fast, vertical, and relentless.
When it works, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t? It’s a lot of three-and-outs that leave a tired defense on the field way too long. Blake Shapen’s health has been the pivot point for everything. In 2024, he went down after four games with a shoulder injury, leaving true freshman Michael Van Buren to fend for himself against the likes of Georgia and Texas.
In 2025, a healthy Shapen threw for over 2,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. But the consistency isn't there yet. We saw flashes from guys like Kevin Coleman Jr. and Davon Booth, but the offensive line—despite adding five transfers like Zach "Flap Jack" Owens—still struggled to protect Shapen in high-pressure SEC environments.
Mississippi State Football Results: The Stark Reality of the SEC
Look, the schedule is never going to be easy. State plays in the most unforgiving conference in sports.
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In 2024, the Bulldogs went 0-8 in the SEC. That hadn't happened since 2002. It was a wake-up call that the transition from Mike Leach’s Air Raid to the Zach Arnett experiment and now to Lebby’s system has left the roster in a state of flux.
The Egg Bowl Deficit
The rivalry with Ole Miss is the barometer for success in this state. Right now, Lane Kiffin has the upper hand. The Mississippi State football results in the Egg Bowl have been bleak lately:
- 2024: A 26-14 loss in Oxford where the Rebels pulled away late.
- 2025: A 38-19 loss at home that wasn't as close as the score looked.
It’s hard to recruit and build momentum when you’re losing to the school 90 miles up the road. Lebby, a former Ole Miss coordinator himself, knows the pressure is mounting to bring the Golden Egg back to Starkville.
What the Numbers Actually Tell Us
If you’re a stat person, the 2025 season had some weirdly specific trends.
- State was 4-0 when scoring first but 1-7 when trailing at the half.
- The rushing game actually improved, with Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels forming a decent 1-2 punch, but the team still averaged less than 4 yards per carry against ranked opponents.
- Third-down conversions remained a nightmare, hovering around 35% in conference play.
Basically, the Bulldogs can beat the teams they are "supposed" to beat, but they lack the depth to survive a four-quarter fistfight with the elite programs.
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The Path Forward for the Bulldogs
So, what now? The 2026 season is already looming. The transfer portal is currently a revolving door in Starkville.
Lebby has doubled down on recruiting size. He’s brought in nearly 30 transfers over the last year and a half. The focus has to be the defensive line. You can have the flashiest offense in the world, but if the opponent’s offensive line is moving your front four like a sled, you aren't winning in the SEC.
Actionable Insights for the Offseason:
- Roster Stabilization: The Bulldogs need to stop the bleeding in the portal. Losing key contributors every December makes it impossible to build chemistry.
- Defensive Identity: Whether it's a scheme change or more personnel shifts, the "bend-but-also-break" defense has to go.
- Quarterback Depth: With Shapen finishing up, the development of Kamario Taylor or finding a high-level portal QB is priority number one.
The reality is that Mississippi State football results are currently in a valley. The jump from five wins back to bowl eligibility and eight or nine wins requires a level of defensive consistency we haven't seen in Starkville since the Joe Moorhead or late Dan Mullen years. It's a long road back, but the "Showtime" era is only just getting started.