If you’ve lived in Minnesota for more than a week, you know the drill. We start checking the long-range forecasts in August, half-joking about whether we should buy a new snowblower or just move to Arizona. But the minnesota winter prediction 2024-2025 was a bit of a weird one from the jump. Last year, the "Lost Winter" of 2023-2024 left us with record-shattering warmth and basically no snow, so everyone was itching for a return to "real" Minnesota weather.
Honestly, the hype for a brutal 2024-2025 season was everywhere. You probably saw the headlines about a "polar coaster" or a "snowpocalypse" fueled by a developing La Niña. But as we sit here in January 2026 looking back, the reality was way more nuanced than those scary clickbait thumbnails suggested.
The La Niña That Sorta Happened (And What It Actually Did)
The backbone of the minnesota winter prediction 2024-2025 was La Niña. For the uninitiated, La Niña is basically the cool sibling of El Niño. It happens when the Pacific Ocean waters near the equator get colder than average. For us in the Upper Midwest, that usually means a more northerly jet stream, which should open the freezer door to the Arctic and pipe in more storms.
Except, this La Niña was a weakling.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Climate Prediction Center spent months tracking a "slow-developing" La Niña. Because it never really gained full strength, the predictable "cold and snowy" signal was muddled. Instead of a consistent deep freeze, we got a winter that felt like it had multiple personalities.
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Why the "Average" Numbers Lie to You
If you look at the final stats for the meteorological winter (December through February), the numbers don't look that crazy. In Rochester, the average temperature ended up just 0.3 degrees warmer than normal. La Crosse was about 0.9 degrees colder.
But averages are a trap.
Think about it like this: if your feet are in a bucket of ice and your head is in an oven, on average, you’re comfortable. Minnesota’s winter was exactly that. December 2024 actually started out pretty mild—Rochester was over 3 degrees above normal—before the floor dropped out in February.
What Really Happened With the Snowfall
This is where the minnesota winter prediction 2024-2025 really missed the mark for a lot of people. The Farmers’ Almanac and several local forecasters were calling for a "wetter than average" season. And while we did get some moisture, it didn't always come down as the fluffy white stuff we wanted for skiing or snowmobiling.
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- The December Tease: We had a decent dump around December 19-20. Most of the state saw about 6 to 8 inches, which gave us a White Christmas.
- The January Drought: January was weirdly dry. Rochester recorded only 0.4 inches of snow for the entire month. That is 11.8 inches below normal. It was officially the driest January on record for several spots.
- The February Rebound: Just when people were calling it another "lost winter," February showed up with a vengeance. We saw a series of clippers that brought the totals back up, but for many, it was too little, too late.
Total snowfall for the 2024-2025 season in the Twin Cities hovered around 30 to 34 inches. Compare that to the 1991-2020 average of about 51 inches, and you realize we actually had a significant deficit. We’ve had back-to-back years now where the shovel stayed in the garage more than we expected.
Expert Opinions: Why the Models Struggled
I talked to a few hobbyist meteorologists and followed the NWS updates closely during the season. There’s a growing consensus that the "old rules" of Minnesota winters are changing. Sven Sundgaard, a well-known voice in Minnesota weather, noted that "real" winters are becoming less reliable as the world warms.
Even when we have a La Niña, which is supposed to be our "snow insurance," the moisture keeps getting pushed further east toward the Great Lakes or further south. We're seeing a trend where the "snow drought" isn't just a fluke; it's a pattern.
The Polar Vortex Factor
We did get a couple of legit Arctic outbreaks. In mid-January and February, we saw temperatures dip well below zero. St. Cloud recorded a low of -20°F in December 2025 (looking at the start of the following season), but during the heart of the 24-25 winter, the "Polar Vortex" stayed relatively contained near the pole. When it did wobble, it hit New England harder than us.
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Actionable Tips for the Rest of This Year
Since we’re currently seeing a much snowier start to the 2025-2026 season (seriously, the Twin Cities have already doubled last year’s December totals), there are a few things you should do differently based on what we learned from the minnesota winter prediction 2024-2025 mess.
- Don't Trust the "Winter Outlooks" for Snow Volume: These forecasts are great for temperature trends but notoriously bad at predicting exactly how many inches of snow will fall. Use them to prep your heating bill, not your snow removal contract.
- Ice Management is the New Shoveling: With the "up and down" temperature swings we saw last year—like that 56°F day in late January—thaw-freeze cycles are becoming more dangerous than actual snowdrifts. Stock up on pet-safe salt early.
- Check Your Insulation Now: Even in a "mild" year, those -20°F spikes will find every gap in your window seals.
- Watch the 2026 Spring Thaw: Because the ground didn't have a deep snowpack for much of last winter, the moisture soaked in differently. This year, with a heavier snowpack already established, keep an eye on basement seepage when things finally melt in March.
The biggest takeaway from the 2024-2025 season? Minnesota winter isn't a monolith anymore. It’s a collection of erratic events. One month you’re wearing a light jacket to the grocery store, and the next you’re wondering if your car will ever start again.
Keep your emergency kit in the trunk, even if the "prediction" says it's going to be a mild one. As we saw last year, "mild" in Minnesota is still plenty cold enough to ruin your day if you aren't ready.
Next Steps for Minnesota Residents:
Check your vehicle's coolant levels and tire pressure immediately, as the current 2025-2026 season is already trending significantly colder and snowier than the 2024-2025 data suggested. If you haven't serviced your furnace yet, do it before the next February-style Arctic dip hits.