Honestly, if you’ve lived in Minnesota for more than a week, you know the drill. One day you’re walking the dog in a light fleece because it’s 45 degrees and sunny, and the next, you’re questioning every life choice that led you to a place where the air literally hurts your face. This week is that second kind of week.
Right now, the weather forecast in mn is doing that classic Minnesota "reality check." We just came off a bizarrely balmy start to 2026. Seriously, temperatures were running 9 degrees warmer than normal through January 13 in the Twin Cities. But that honeymoon phase is officially over. As of Wednesday night, January 14, 2026, the temperature in Minnesota has tanked to 8°F, with a wind chill that feels more like -1°F. If you’re heading out, that northwest wind at 5 mph doesn't sound like much, but it cuts through layers like a knife.
The Great Arctic Plunge of 2026
We are currently entering what meteorologists call a "cold snap," but locals just call "January." According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, a series of clippers is diving out of the Canadian Prairies. This isn't just one big blizzard; it’s more like a relentless barrage of cold air and "nuisance snow."
The high for today, Wednesday, struggled to hit 13°F. Tonight, we’re looking at a low of 1°F. It’s clear for now, but clouds are moving in. If you have errands to run, tonight is the time.
Why?
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Because tomorrow, Thursday, January 15, things get messy. We’ll see a high of 30°F, which sounds great until you realize it comes with a 65% chance of snow. This snow is expected to start hitting the Twin Cities right after the morning commute—roughly between 9 a.m. and noon. It’s going to make the evening drive a total nightmare. Expect slick roads and low visibility, especially in open areas where the wind can really whip that fresh powder around.
Is the "January Thaw" Actually Over?
Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the Minnesota DNR, recently pointed out that we get a January thaw—defined as two consecutive days above 32 degrees—about 82% of the time. We actually just had a massive one. Some parts of southwest Minnesota even nudged 50 degrees earlier this week.
But science tells us that when we lose our snowpack, the ground absorbs more heat, which can "snowball" into even warmer temperatures. This year, we’ve only had about eight-tenths of an inch of snow at MSP airport so far this month. That is way below the average of 5 inches.
Mother Nature seems determined to balance the books.
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What to Expect Through the Weekend
If you’re planning a weekend getaway or just trying to survive the grocery run, here is the breakdown of the upcoming "Arctic invasion":
- Friday, Jan 16: High of 16°F, low of -3°F. Expect snow showers and gusty northwest winds hitting 19 mph.
- Saturday, Jan 17: This is the big drop. The high is -2°F. Yes, a high below zero. The low will plummet to -12°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Not much better. High of 4°F and a low of -13°F.
The coldest night is looking like Saturday night into Sunday morning. We’re talking widespread lows of -5 to -10, and potentially much colder in northern spots like Duluth or International Falls.
Why This Winter Feels Different
There’s a lot of talk about the polar vortex returning. Basically, the jet stream is getting wavy, allowing those deep "lobes" of Arctic air to spill south. While 2026 started warm due to a shifting ENSO pattern moving toward El Niño, these short-term Arctic blasts are still the kings of the North.
Interestingly, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a "Chill, Snow, Repeat" pattern for this winter. They were pretty spot on about mid-January plummeting. They’re also calling for a very snowy February. So, if you haven’t tuned up the snowblower yet, you’re running out of time.
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Real-World Survival Tips for This Week
Don't just look at the thermometer. The humidity is sitting around 72% tonight, which makes that cold feel "damp" and bone-chilling.
- Check your tire pressure. These 30-degree swings in temperature will cause your "low tire" light to pop on faster than you can say "Uff Da."
- Layer, don't just bundle. A base layer of wool or synthetic wicking material is better than one giant heavy coat.
- Watch the wind. Friday's gusts could reach 40-50 mph in west-central Minnesota. That’s enough to cause significant drifting even with just an inch or two of new snow.
- Pet safety. If it's too cold for you to stand outside in your pajamas, it's too cold for the dog. Shorten those walks once we hit those subzero Saturday highs.
The weather forecast in mn shows a slight moderation starting next Tuesday, with highs getting back into the mid-teens. But until then, we are firmly in the grip of a classic Minnesota winter.
Next Steps:
Go check your car’s emergency kit tonight while it's still above zero. Make sure you have an extra pair of gloves, a blanket, and a shovel in the trunk before the snow starts falling mid-morning Thursday.