Wait, did that really just happen? Yeah, it’s official. Minnesota Senator Tina Smith announces she won't run for reelection, and the Twin Cities—well, the whole state—is basically in a tailspin trying to figure out what comes next.
Honestly, it feels like just yesterday she was appointed to fill Al Franken’s seat. That was back in 2018. Now, after winning a special election and then a full six-year term in 2020, she’s decided to call it quits when her current term ends in early 2027. She dropped the news through an op-ed in the Minnesota Star Tribune and a video that felt, well, surprisingly human for a politician.
Why is Tina Smith stepping down now?
People always look for some juicy, backroom political scandal when a sitting Senator decides to walk away. But Smith was pretty blunt about it. She’s 66. She’s spent two decades in the public eye, moving from being a VP at Planned Parenthood to Chief of Staff for Governor Mark Dayton, then Lieutenant Governor, and finally the U.S. Senate.
"Politicians are human beings," she said in her announcement. You don't hear that often. She basically admitted that while she loves the "velvet hammer" life—a nickname she earned for being quiet but effective—she wants to see her grandkids. Her family is all back in Minnesota now. Her dad is pushing 95. Sometimes, the "why" is just as simple as wanting to be home for dinner without a vote scheduled at 2:00 AM.
A look at the "Velvet Hammer" legacy
Smith wasn't a firebrand. You didn't see her screaming on cable news every night. Instead, she dug into the weeds. We’re talking about things like:
- Lowering insulin costs: She was a massive advocate for the $35 cap.
- Climate Action: She was a key architect of the Clean Energy Performance Program.
- Reproductive Rights: Given her history with Planned Parenthood, she was arguably the Senate's loudest voice for abortion access after Roe was overturned.
It’s easy to forget she was once considered a "placeholder" appointment. She proved everyone wrong by winning twice and becoming a powerhouse on the Agriculture and Health committees.
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The 2026 Scramble: Who's in and who's out?
The moment the words Minnesota Senator Tina Smith announces she won't run for reelection hit the wires, every ambitious politician in the 651 and 612 area codes started checking their donor lists.
Minnesota hasn't had an open Senate seat without an incumbent running since 2006. That is a long time. It creates a vacuum that is already being filled by some very big names.
The Democratic (DFL) Frontrunners
Peggy Flanagan: The current Lieutenant Governor didn't even wait for the ink to dry on Smith's announcement before signaling her intent. If she wins, she’d be the first Native American woman in the U.S. Senate. That’s a massive deal. She’s got the backing of the progressive wing and a very close relationship with Governor Tim Walz.
Angie Craig: Representing the 2nd District, Craig is a fundraising machine. She’s known for winning in tough, "purple" areas. She’s already got millions in the bank. If you want someone who knows how to fight in the suburbs, she’s the one.
The Republican (GOP) Challengers
Republicans see a glimmer of hope. Minnesota is "blue," sure, but it’s not that blue. Smith only won by about 5 points in 2020.
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- Royce White: The former NBA player and 2024 nominee is back at it. He has a very vocal, populist base.
- Adam Schwarze: A retired Navy SEAL who brings a completely different energy to the race.
- Joe Fraser: Another name often mentioned in GOP circles who could bridge the gap between the MAGA base and moderate suburbanites.
Why this matters for the national map
The Senate is currently on a knife's edge. Democrats are already defending seats in tough territory, and losing an incumbent like Smith makes Minnesota a "battleground" again.
National groups like the NRSC and DSCC are going to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into our local TV stations. Get ready for the non-stop commercials. It’s going to be exhausting.
But beyond the ads, it’s about the "bench." Smith mentioned in her op-ed that she wanted to "make room" for the next generation. In a Washington where most leaders are well into their 70s and 80s, her stepping aside is actually a pretty rare act of political self-awareness.
What happens for the next two years?
Smith isn't leaving tomorrow. She’s staying until January 2027. She’s promised "no senioritis," meaning she’s still pushing for the Farm Bill and housing affordability.
If you're wondering what you should do as a voter or just an interested observer, here’s the reality:
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- Watch the primary: The DFL primary between Flanagan and Craig (if both stay in) will be a massive ideological test for the party.
- Follow the money: Keep an eye on the FEC filings. In Minnesota, the candidate with the most "outstate" support usually has the edge.
- Check your registration: With an open Senate seat, the 2026 midterms in Minnesota will have record-high turnout.
It's a big shift. Tina Smith has been a steady, if quiet, force for Minnesota. Whether you agreed with her or not, her departure changes the gravity of Minnesota politics for a generation.
The 2026 race has officially started. It’s going to be a wild ride.
Next Steps for Minnesotans
Keep a close eye on the upcoming 2026 primary candidate filings at the Minnesota Secretary of State's office. If you're planning to participate in the caucuses, now is the time to identify which candidate's platform aligns with your priorities on rural development, healthcare, and labor rights.