You’ve seen the memes. The ones where a skeleton is sitting on a park bench covered in three feet of snow with a caption that says, "Waiting for spring in Minneapolis." Honestly, it’s funny because it’s true, but the minneapolis mn extended weather forecast for the back half of January 2026 is telling a much more nuanced story than just "it's cold."
Right now, we are staring down a classic Minnesota winter squeeze. As of January 17, 2026, the current temperature is sitting at a crisp 11°F. But if you actually step outside near the Chain of Lakes, that northwest wind at 14 mph makes it feel like -4°F. That’s the "sting" everyone talks about.
The biggest misconception about the extended outlook for the Twin Cities is that once the deep freeze sets in, it stays until March. Not this year. We’re seeing a jagged, teeth-like pattern in the temperature charts that’s going to keep everyone from the North Loop to Edina on their toes.
Reading the Minneapolis MN Extended Weather Forecast: The Next 10 Days
If you’re planning your week, don't put the heavy parka in the back of the closet just yet. Sunday, January 18, is looking like a bit of a mess with snow showers and a high of 14°F, but the real story is the overnight drop. We are plunging to -5°F. That is a 19-degree swing in a matter of hours.
By Monday, the clouds stick around, and the high barely scrapes 3°F. It’s one of those brittle, bright-gray days where the air feels thin.
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- Midweek Flurries: Tuesday through Thursday (Jan 20-22) brings a consistent cycle of light snow and snow showers. Highs will hover between 11°F and 16°F. It’s not a blizzard, but it’s enough to make the 35W commute "kinda" annoying every single morning.
- The Bottom Drops Out: Friday, January 23, starts a cooling trend that hits a wall on Saturday. We are looking at a high of exactly 0°F on January 24.
- The Sunday Rebound: By January 25, we get a little more moisture with a 35% chance of snow and a "balmy" high of 4°F.
Basically, we are in the heart of what the National Weather Service calls the "coldest third" of the winter. With the weak La Niña patterns we've been tracking, the Upper Mississippi Valley is favored for these below-average temperatures.
Why Does the Wind Direction Matter So Much?
Most people just look at the little sun or cloud icon on their phone. If you want to actually predict the minneapolis mn extended weather forecast like a local pro, you have to watch the wind direction.
When the wind comes from the northwest—which it's doing right now at 14 mph—it’s pulling dry, Arctic air straight down from the Canadian prairies. It’s why the humidity is at 64% but it feels like your skin is turning into parchment paper.
Later in the week, we see a shift. On Sunday, January 18, the wind moves to the southwest at 17 mph. Usually, a south wind means a warm-up, but in January, it often just brings more moisture. That’s why our snow chances jump to 35% that day. It’s a "wet" cold rather than a "dry" cold.
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The La Niña Factor in 2026
We can't talk about the extended outlook without mentioning the elephant in the room: the fading La Niña. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is about a 61% chance we transition to ENSO-neutral by the end of March.
What does that mean for your driveway?
It means the "predictability" of the winter is low. In a strong La Niña year, we’d expect a relentless "Polar Express" of storms. This year, it’s more of a stop-and-go. We get a few inches of light snow, then a two-day deep freeze, then a slight "thaw" back into the double digits.
The historical averages for Minneapolis in January usually see a high of 24°F. We are currently trending significantly below that. If you look at the data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, our average temperature so far this month has been closer to -5°F than 24°F.
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Snow Depth and Survival
As of mid-January, snow depth in the metro area is hovering around 3 to 5 inches depending on where the last band of flurries hit. This isn't "Snowmageddon" levels, but it’s enough to keep the ground insulated.
For the gardeners out there, this is actually good news. A steady snowpack protects the root systems of your perennials from the -8°F lows we are expecting on January 24. Without that snow, the frost line would dive much deeper into the soil, potentially killing off less hardy plants.
Actionable Steps for the Coming Week
Since the minneapolis mn extended weather forecast is showing a string of sub-zero nights and consistent snow chances, you need a game plan that goes beyond just "wearing a hat."
- Check Your Tire Pressure Now: Those 20-degree temperature swings between Sunday and Monday will cause your "low tire pressure" light to scream at you. Air contracts in the cold. Fill them up to the manufacturer's spec while it's still 11°F.
- The "Zero Degree" Rule: On Saturday, January 24, when the high is 0°F, limit outdoor exposure for pets to under 10 minutes. At those temps, frostbite on paws can happen faster than you'd think.
- Humidity Management: With the humidity dropping during the cold snaps (around 62% on Monday), keep your home humidifier running to prevent floorboards from shrinking and your throat from feeling like you swallowed sandpaper.
- Watch the Tuesday/Thursday Snow: These are high-frequency, low-accumulation events (10-25% chance). It’s the "dusting" that turns into ice on the ramps. Give yourself an extra 15 minutes for the morning commute.
Stay warm out there. The sun is setting around 5:00 PM now, so at least we’re gaining a few minutes of daylight every day, even if the thermometer hasn't caught the memo yet.