The streets of Yangon don't look like a war zone every single day. That's the first thing people get wrong. You might see a guy selling fried crickets or a woman carrying a tray of jasmine flowers, but look closer at the intersections. There are sandbag bunkers. There are soldiers with ruffled uniforms and nervous eyes holding submachine guns. Military rule in Myanmar isn't just a political shift; it’s a slow-motion car crash that has been unfolding since the early hours of February 1, 2021.
I remember the confusion that morning. People woke up, tried to check Facebook, and realized the internet was dead. Then came the announcement on Myawaddy TV. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing had seized power. They claimed the 2020 election—which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won by a landslide—was fraudulent. Independent observers like the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) said otherwise. They found the results were representative of the people's will. But in Naypyidaw, the generals didn't care about observers.
The Brutal Reality of the State Administration Council
The military calls itself the State Administration Council (SAC). Most people just call them the Sit-tat. Since the coup, the country has basically fractured into a million pieces. It’s not a simple "government vs. rebels" scenario anymore. It’s a messy, multi-front civil war.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) has been tracking the numbers, and they’re grim. Over 4,000 people killed. Tens of thousands arrested. But numbers are cold. They don't tell you about the midnight raids or the "clearance operations" in Sagaing Region where entire villages are torched to the ground.
The military uses a "Four Cuts" strategy. It’s an old doctrine. They try to cut off the resistance from food, funds, intelligence, and recruits. In practice? That means burning granaries and shooting anyone who looks like they might be carrying a radio. It’s brutal. It’s effective in terrorizing people, but it’s failing to actually win the war.
Why this coup was different from 1988 or 1962
Gen Z grew up with the internet. From 2011 to 2021, Myanmar had a "democratic opening." It wasn't perfect—the military still held 25% of parliament seats and three key ministries—but people tasted freedom. They had TikTok. They had international banks. They had hope.
When the military tried to shove the genie back in the bottle, the youth didn't just protest with signs. They started the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). Doctors walked out. Bank tellers stayed home. The economy seized up. Honestly, the military expected a few weeks of protests and then silence. They didn't expect a generation of gamers and poets to head into the jungle to learn how to assemble 3D-printed rifles.
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Operation 1027: The Turning Point for Military Rule in Myanmar
If you want to understand why the junta is currently panicking, look at late 2023. An alliance of ethnic armed groups called the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched "Operation 1027" in northern Shan State.
It was a disaster for the Sit-tat.
They lost hundreds of outposts. They lost key border crossings to China. Entire battalions surrendered without firing a shot. This was the first time in decades the military looked genuinely beatable. The myth of the invincible Burmese soldier shattered.
Now, the military is desperate. They've started enforcing a conscription law. Imagine being 20 years old in Mandalay and getting a letter saying you have to fight for the very generals who killed your friends in 2021. People are fleeing. They’re crossing into Thailand illegally or joining the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) because, frankly, they’d rather die fighting the junta than dying for it.
The Economic Meltdown
The kyat (the local currency) is in freefall. Before the coup, it was maybe 1,300 to the dollar. Now? It’s a disaster. Black market rates are wild.
- Prices for cooking oil have tripled.
- Electricity is a luxury, with rolling blackouts lasting 18 hours a day in some neighborhoods.
- International brands like TotalEnergies, Chevron, and Telenor have packed up and left.
Business owners are stuck. If they pay taxes, they’re funding the military’s airstrikes. If they don't, they go to jail. It's a lose-lose situation that has pushed half the population below the poverty line. UNDP reports basically suggest the middle class is being wiped out.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Resistance
A lot of Western media talks about the National Unity Government (NUG) as the "shadow government." They’re the diplomats. They’re the ones on Zoom calls with the UN. But the real power on the ground is decentralized.
You have the Karen National Union (KNU), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and the Chin Defense Force. They don't always agree with each other. Historically, there’s been a lot of friction between the Bamar majority and ethnic minorities. The military has spent 70 years using "divide and rule" tactics.
But something shifted.
The Bamar heartland is now feeling the same brutality the ethnic states have felt for decades. There’s a new sense of solidarity. It’s fragile, but it’s there. People are apologizing to the Rohingya. That was unthinkable five years ago.
The International Response (or lack thereof)
ASEAN has a "Five-Point Consensus," but it’s basically a piece of paper with no teeth. Russia and China keep supplying the junta with jets and ammo. Why? Because the military controls the ports and the pipelines.
The US and EU have slapped on sanctions, specifically targeting the Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). It hurts the junta's wallet, but it hasn't stopped the jets from taking off. The air campaign is the military's only real advantage now. Since they can't hold ground on the North or the East, they just drop bombs from 10,000 feet.
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How to actually track what’s happening
If you're trying to stay updated, don't just look at mainstream news. The situation moves too fast.
- Myanmar Witness: They use satellite imagery to verify village burnings.
- The Irrawaddy & Myanmar Now: These are local outlets (working mostly in exile) that have the best sources inside the country.
- Data for Myanmar: Essential for seeing the raw stats on the conflict.
The reality of military rule in Myanmar today is a stalemate that is slowly tilting against the generals. They are losing territory, losing soldiers, and losing the last shreds of legitimacy. But they have the heavy weapons. They have the prisons.
It’s a war of attrition.
Actionable Insights for Following the Crisis
If you're looking to understand the next phase of this conflict, watch the borders. The military’s ability to govern is tied to its ability to collect trade duties at places like Myawaddy and Muse. As those fall to the resistance, the junta’s bank account dries up.
Also, keep an eye on the internal desertions. When mid-level officers start defecting with their units, that’s when the house of cards finally falls.
For those wanting to support the people, direct humanitarian aid to local NGOs on the Thai-Myanmar border is far more effective than trying to send anything through official Naypyidaw channels. Organizations like the Free Burma Rangers provide frontline medics that actually reach the displaced.
The situation is grim, but for the first time in sixty years, there’s a real, tangible chance that the military's grip on power is breaking for good. It just comes at a staggering cost.
Stay informed by following the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, currently Tom Andrews. His reports offer the most comprehensive look at the legal and humanitarian violations being committed. Understanding the specific logistics of the military's supply chains, specifically aviation fuel, remains the most critical point for international policy intervention moving forward.