If you woke up this morning in Middletown and thought, "Hey, it’s not actually that bad out," you’re half-right. But honestly, don't let that initial 35°F fool you. Today, Thursday, January 15, 2026, is basically a meteorological bait-and-switch.
We’re coming off a night that was pretty much encased in clouds. Right now, the humidity is sitting at a thick 95%, which makes the air feel heavy even if it isn't actively dumping snow on your windshield. But the big story for weather in middletown ny today isn't where we're starting—it's the steep drop-off we're heading toward.
The Temperature Cliff and That West Wind
You’ve probably noticed the wind is currently a lazy 3 mph from the southwest. That’s going to change. As the day progresses, we're looking at a high of 36°F, but the atmosphere is shifting.
By the time the afternoon rolls around, the wind is expected to kick up significantly. We're talking 15 mph gusts coming straight out of the west. When you combine that with the forecasted low of 15°F for tonight, you realize the "milder" morning is just a memory.
Here’s the breakdown of what to expect:
The sky will stay mostly cloudy for the bulk of the daylight hours. While the chance of precipitation is technically low—only about 10%—that moisture is still hovering. If anything does fall, it’ll likely be a light snow or flurries. Don't expect to go sledding, but you might see a few flakes sticking to your coat.
Why Humidity Matters Today
Usually, when we think of 95% humidity, we think of sticky July afternoons at Fancher-Davidge Park. In January, it's a different beast. That high humidity coupled with temperatures near freezing means the air is holding a lot of moisture.
As the sun sets and the temperature starts its descent toward 15°F, any dampness on the roads could turn into those annoying icy patches.
It’s the kind of day where the UV index is a 1. Basically, the sun isn't doing any of the heavy lifting. You won't feel any warmth from the light, so you're entirely dependent on your layers.
What to Wear if You’re Heading Out
Since we’re dealing with a 36°F high and a 15°F low, dressing for weather in middletown ny today requires a bit of strategy.
- Morning: A standard winter coat and maybe some light gloves.
- Evening: You’ll want the heavy-duty parka, a scarf to block that 15 mph west wind, and actual thermal protection.
The drop from 36 to 15 is a 21-degree swing. That’s enough to catch you off guard if you leave the house in a light jacket and stay out past dinner.
Looking Toward Tonight
As we transition into the night, the clouds should break up a bit, moving from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. This clearing is actually what helps the temperature crater. Without the "blanket" of clouds, the heat escapes into the atmosphere faster.
The southwest wind that was barely a breeze this morning will have fully transitioned to a sharper western wind.
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Actionable Tips for Middletown Residents
If you’re commuting or just running errands around town, keep these points in mind:
Watch the sidewalks. With humidity that high earlier in the day, any moisture that hasn't evaporated will likely freeze as the sun goes down.
Check your tires. Rapid temperature drops like the one we're seeing today—down to 15°F—can cause your tire pressure light to pop on. It’s just physics, but it’s a headache you don't need.
Layer up for the evening. If you're heading to a game or a late dinner, pack the "real" winter gear in the car. The wind chill tonight is going to feel significantly colder than the raw number on the thermometer.
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Basically, enjoy the mid-30s while they last. The deep freeze is moving in fast, and tonight is going to be a reminder that winter in the Hudson Valley doesn't play around.