If you’ve lived in the Hudson Valley for more than a week, you already know the drill. You check the Middletown NY weather hourly report at 8:00 AM, see a clear sky, and by noon you’re sprinting to your car through a sudden slushy mix. It’s frustrating.
Honestly, the weather here in Orange County is famously fickle. We’re tucked right between the Shawangunk Ridge and the lower Hudson, creating a little pocket where the atmosphere loves to play games. One hour it's 44°F and feels like a crisp spring day; the next, the wind kicks up to 15 mph and you're shivering.
What’s Happening Today in Middletown?
Right now, as of Tuesday, January 13, 2026, we’re looking at a classic mid-winter rollercoaster. If you’re heading out toward Galleria at Crystal Run or grabbing a coffee downtown, here is what the actual hourly breakdown looks like for the rest of the day.
The morning started out cold, hovering around 29°F with a "feels like" temp of about 23°F because of a light southwest breeze. But things are moving. By the afternoon, we’re actually expecting to hit a high of 44°F. That sounds nice, right? Don't get too comfortable. Clouds are going to be persistent, covering about 55% of the sky throughout the day.
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As the sun dips—around 4:50 PM—the temperature will start its slide back toward 28°F. There is a small 20% chance of some light snow flurries tonight. It’s not going to be a "get the shovel" kind of night, but more of a "watch for black ice on the side streets" kind of night.
Why the Hourly Forecast Feels So Random
Have you ever noticed how the "Daily High" on your weather app never seems to match the highest number in the hourly list? It’s not a glitch. Meteorologists often track the absolute peak temperature and the top-of-the-hour readings separately.
Basically, the temp might spike to 44°F at 2:22 PM, but if the sensor only records 41°F at 2:00 PM and 40°F at 3:00 PM, the hourly list looks "wrong." In Middletown, this happens a lot because of our elevation changes. At 515 feet above sea level, we catch winds that the lower parts of the valley miss.
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Tomorrow’s Outlook: Wednesday, January 14
If you think today is weird, Wednesday is doubling down. We’re looking at a high of 49°F. It’s going to be overcast and gray, but unseasonably mild for January. Then, the hammer drops.
A cold front is moving in late Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, that mild rain is going to transition into snow. We’re looking at a sharp drop to 22°F by Thursday night. That’s a 27-degree swing in about 24 hours. Welcome to New York.
Navigating the January "Slump"
January in Middletown is usually our coldest month, averaging a mean temperature of around 27°F. We typically see about 2.5 inches of precipitation throughout the month. This year, the Almanac is suggesting we might stay slightly drier than usual, which is a win if you hate salt stains on your boots.
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But the wind is the real killer. In the winter months, Middletown averages about 9-11 mph winds. That’s enough to make a 35°F day feel like 20°F. If you're walking across the SUNY Orange campus or waiting for the bus on North Street, that wind tunnel effect is real.
Real Talk on Local Conditions
- Morning Frost: Expect it almost every day this week. The humidity is sitting at 70%, which means the moisture is just waiting to freeze on your windshield.
- Visibility: Usually stays around 9-10 miles, but keep an eye on Thursday morning. The transition from rain to snow can create that "white-out" mist that makes Route 17 a nightmare.
- Dress Code: Layers. Seriously. You need a wind-resistant outer shell but something light underneath for when you’re inside those blasting-hot local shops.
How to Actually Use This Info
Stop looking at the "Daily" icon. It tells you nothing. In a place like Middletown, the Middletown NY weather hourly data is the only thing that matters because the "average" temperature for the day usually only exists for about 15 minutes.
If you're planning a trip to Highland Lakes or just heading to the grocery store, check the dew point. When the dew point and the temperature get close, that’s when the fog and the "bone-chilling" dampness settle in. Right now, our dew point is at 19°F, which is pretty dry. That’s why the air feels "sharp" rather than "heavy."
Actionable Next Steps
To stay ahead of the curve this week, do two things. First, clear your gutters before Wednesday evening’s rain; you don't want that water freezing in there when the temp plummets on Thursday. Second, check your tire pressure. These 40-degree-to-20-degree jumps cause your PSI to drop faster than a New Year’s resolution.
Keep an eye on the sky toward the West—weather usually rolls into Middletown from the Gap, and if those clouds look heavy over the ridge, you’ve got about forty minutes before it hits the city limits.