Honestly, if you've spent any time in Northern Indiana during January, you know the drill. It’s that specific kind of cold that doesn't just sit on your skin—it actively tries to get into your bones. Right now in Middlebury, we’re looking at a current temperature of 16°F, but thanks to a 16 mph wind kicking up from the southwest, it feels like 1°F.
That’s basically the "don't leave the house without a scarf" threshold.
The sky is mostly cloudy, which is pretty standard for this time of year in Elkhart County. We've got about an 8% chance of snow flurries right now, though it's mostly just grey and biting out there.
The Week Ahead: Snow and Single Digits
If you were hoping for a break, you're gonna be disappointed. The next few days are looking like a classic Indiana winter rollercoaster.
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For Saturday, January 17, we’re peaking at 21°F under partly sunny skies before it drops to 12°F tonight. Expect more clouds to roll in as the sun goes down. Tomorrow, Sunday, the snow actually shows up. We’ve got a 20% chance of snow during the day and a 35% chance of snow showers at night. Highs will stay around 18°F.
But Monday, January 19 is where things get really "fun."
The high is only hitting 11°F, and the low is plummeting to a measly 2°F. Combine that with 21 mph winds from the west, and you’re looking at some serious wind chill issues. If you have to be outside, keep it brief.
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Mid-Week Fluctuations
Tuesday gives us a tiny bit of sun and a high of 23°F, but don't get used to it. By Wednesday, the temperature "climbs" to 31°F, which is the warmest we’ll see for a while. Of course, that warmth comes with a 35% chance of snow showers.
The rest of the week stays consistently cold:
- Thursday, Jan 22: High of 18°F, Low of 12°F (Snow showers possible).
- Friday, Jan 23: High of 28°F, Low of 17°F.
- Saturday, Jan 24: High of 17°F, Low of 3°F.
What Most People Get Wrong About Middlebury Winters
People think it's just about the snow. It's not. It's the wind.
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Because we're in such a flat, open area, the wind has nothing to stop it from picking up speed across the fields. A 15 mph wind here feels way different than it does in a city with buildings to break the gust. When you see a forecast for 15°F, you have to look at the wind speed first. That southwest or west wind is what turns a "cold day" into a "dangerous day."
Also, "lake effect" is a real thing. Even if the main weather system is missing us, we can get dumped on because of our proximity to Lake Michigan. It’s localized and weird. Your neighbor in Shipshewana might have two inches of snow while you're bone dry in Middlebury, or vice versa.
Staying Safe When the Mercury Dips
When we hit those single-digit lows like we’re seeing on Monday and Tuesday, you've got to be smart.
Pipe safety is huge. If your kitchen sink is on an exterior wall, leave the cabinet doors open so the house heat can get to the plumbing. Keep a tiny trickle of water running; it’s cheaper than a plumber.
And for the love of everything, check your car's emergency kit. You need a real shovel, not a plastic toy, a heavy blanket, and maybe some kitty litter for traction if you get stuck in a drift.
Actionable Next Steps
- Drip the Faucets: With lows hitting 2°F on Monday and Tuesday, start a slow drip on faucets located on outside walls.
- Vehicle Check: Ensure your gas tank is at least half full. Condensation in a near-empty tank can freeze your fuel lines in these temps.
- Pet Safety: If it's too cold for you to stand outside in a light jacket for ten minutes, it's too cold for your pets. Bring them in.
- Watch the Wind: Monday’s 21 mph gusts are the real threat—cover all exposed skin if you’re heading out to clear the driveway.