The stock market has a funny way of making you feel like you're late to the party. If you're looking at what is the current price of microsoft stock, you're seeing a number that has been through a wild emotional arc over the last few years.
Honestly, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. As of the close on Friday, January 16, 2026, Microsoft (MSFT) shares were sitting at $459.86.
That's a slight bump up of 0.70% from the previous day. But if you’ve been tracking this since the summer of 2025, you know that number doesn't tell the whole story. Back in July 2025, the stock hit an all-time high of $555.45. Since then, it’s been a slow, sometimes painful grind downward. We're talking about a 17% haircut from those peak levels.
So, why the drop? Basically, the "AI honeymoon" ended. Investors stopped cheering for every mention of "Copilot" and started asking, "Okay, but where’s the money?"
The Reality Behind Microsoft Stock Right Now
The current price of $459.86 puts Microsoft at a market capitalization of roughly **$3.42 trillion**. That is a massive number, but it’s no longer the absolute king of the hill every single day.
You've got to look at the P/E ratio, which currently hovers around 32.7. For a while there in 2025, it was north of 40. People were paying a massive premium because they thought AI was going to double the company's value overnight. Now, the market is being a lot more skeptical.
The OpenAI Factor
Most people don't realize how much the OpenAI relationship messes with Microsoft's official accounting. In the last quarterly report (Q1 FY2026), Microsoft’s GAAP net income was actually dragged down by about $3 billion because of their stake in OpenAI.
Why? Because OpenAI is spending money like water on compute power. Microsoft owns about 27% of the company, and they have to account for those losses. If you strip that out—the "non-GAAP" numbers—the company is actually healthier than the surface-level earnings suggest.
Azure and the Cloud Engine
Azure is still the beast in the basement. In the most recent quarter, Azure and other cloud services grew by 40%. That is nuts for a business of this size. It’s the primary reason why 55 out of 57 major Wall Street analysts still have a "Strong Buy" on the stock despite the recent price slide.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Microsoft is "failing" because it's down from $550. In reality, the company is making more money than ever. Revenue for the last quarter hit **$77.7 billion**. That’s an 18% jump year-over-year.
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The problem isn't the company; it’s the expectations.
Investors are worried about the "AI payback period." Microsoft is expected to spend roughly $121 billion on capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2026. Most of that is just buying GPUs and building data centers. It’s a huge bet. If companies don't start seeing a massive productivity boost from AI, that $121 billion starts to look like a very expensive paperweight.
Institutional Movement
Check out what the big players are doing. It's not all sunshine.
- BlackRock added about 10 million shares recently.
- The Gates Foundation Trust actually dumped about 65% of its holding (17 million shares) in late 2025.
- Satya Nadella has been a steady seller, offloading about 149,000 shares over the last six months.
When the CEO sells, people panic. But honestly? Nadella still owns a mountain of stock. Executives sell for all sorts of reasons—taxes, buying a new house, diversifying. It’s not always a signal the ship is sinking.
Where is the Price Heading?
If you're asking about what is the current price of microsoft stock because you want to buy in, you should know that the "median" price target from analysts is currently around $630.00.
That’s a lot of upside. Wedbush’s Dan Ives is even more bullish, recently sticking to a $625.00 target. But there’s a catch. The "low" estimate is $425.00. We are currently much closer to the floor than the ceiling.
Upcoming Catalysts
The next big date is January 28, 2026. That’s when Microsoft reports its next batch of earnings.
Wall Street is looking for an EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $3.86. If they miss that, or if Azure growth dips below 35%, we could easily see the stock test that $425 support level.
Is It a Buy at $459.86?
Honestly, it depends on your timeline. If you're trying to make a quick buck in three weeks, Microsoft is a gamble right now. The tech sector is in a "valuation reset" phase.
But if you’re looking at a five-year window?
Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO)—basically, the money companies have promised to pay them in the future—is $392 billion. That is a massive safety net.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking to move on MSFT today, here’s how to approach it:
- Watch the $450 Support: The stock has shown some "stickiness" around the $450–$455 range. If it breaks below that, the next stop could be $425.
- Focus on the "AI Run-Rate": During the Jan 28 earnings call, ignore the headline profit for a second and look for the "AI revenue run-rate." It’s currently around $13 billion. If that number jumps to $15B or $16B, the stock will likely pop.
- The Dividend Factor: It's small (around 0.79% yield), but Microsoft has $80 billion in cash. They aren't going broke. They returned $9.4 billion to shareholders last quarter alone through dividends and buybacks.
- Don't ignore the "Sovereign Cloud": Governments are starting to buy their own private versions of Azure to keep their data local. This is a massive, untapped market that could offset any slowdown in the private sector.
The current price of microsoft stock reflects a market that is currently "sobering up" after a long AI party. The company is fundamentally stronger than it was a year ago, even if the stock price doesn't show it yet.
To get the most out of your investment research, you should compare Microsoft's CapEx spending against Alphabet and Amazon's upcoming reports. If Microsoft is spending more but growing Azure faster, the premium price is justified. If Azure growth stalls while spending stays at $120 billion, that's your cue to be cautious.