Honestly, if you're looking at your screen wondering what's Microsoft stock price doing today, you aren't alone. As of mid-day trading on January 16, 2026, Microsoft (MSFT) is hovering around $461.54. It’s up about 1% for the day, which sounds like a quiet Friday, but there is a whole lot of noise under the hood.
The stock has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. It hit an all-time high of roughly $555 last summer before pulling back. Now, it's sitting in this middle ground where some investors are nervous and others are licking their chops.
What's Microsoft stock price really telling us?
The current price of $461.54 isn't just a random number; it's a reflection of a massive tug-of-war on Wall Street. On one side, you've got the AI bulls. They look at Azure and the OpenAI partnership and see a money-printing machine. On the other side, there's a growing crowd worried about "AI fatigue" and the sheer amount of cash Satya Nadella is burning on data centers.
Microsoft’s market cap is currently sitting at $3.43 trillion. That is a staggering amount of value. To put that in perspective, it’s larger than the entire GDP of many developed nations. But being the fourth most valuable company in the world (trailing slightly behind NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Apple) means the expectations are sky-high. If they don't beat earnings by a mile, the stock gets punished.
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The Q1 2026 reality check
We recently got a look at the fiscal Q1 2026 numbers, and they were actually pretty solid, even if the market didn't throw a parade.
- Revenue: $77.67 billion (up 18% year-over-year).
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.13, which handily beat the $3.65 analysts were expecting.
- Cloud Growth: Azure grew by 40%. That’s the big one.
The weird part? The stock hasn't skyrocketed. Why? Because Microsoft admitted they are "capacity constrained." Basically, they have more people wanting to use their AI tools than they have chips and server space to provide. It’s a high-class problem to have, but it means they might be leaving money on the table in the short term.
Why the "What's Microsoft stock price" search is spiking
People are searching for the price today because we are less than two weeks away from the next big earnings call. Mark your calendars for January 28, 2026. That is when Microsoft drops its Q2 results.
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The consensus among analysts is a "Moderate Buy," with an average price target of $630.37. If you believe those experts—and guys like Raimo Lenschow at Barclays or Kash Rangan at Goldman Sachs have been watching this closely—there is a potential 36% upside from where we are sitting today.
But you've gotta look at the risks. Microsoft is spending billions. Their capital expenditure (CapEx) rose 74% recently. They are building a massive AI data center in Wisconsin called "Fairwater," which is supposed to be the most powerful on earth. That costs a fortune. If the revenue from "Copilot" doesn't start showing up in a major way soon, investors might start losing patience with the spending spree.
The OpenAI connection
You can't talk about the MSFT stock price without talking about OpenAI. Microsoft has basically extended their rights to OpenAI's intellectual property through 2032. They are the exclusive cloud provider for ChatGPT. Every time someone pays for a pro subscription there, a little bit of that flows back to the Azure ecosystem.
Is MSFT actually "undervalued" at $461?
It feels crazy to call a $3 trillion company undervalued. But look at the P/E ratio. It’s sitting around 32.8. Compared to some other tech giants, that’s actually somewhat reasonable for a company growing its cloud business at 40%.
What to watch in the coming weeks:
- The $475 Resistance: Technically, the stock has struggled to break back above its 100-day moving average. If it clears $475, we might see a rally.
- Windows OEM Strength: Surprisingly, Windows sales have stayed strong because everyone is prepping for the end of Windows 10 support.
- Gaming Gains: With 500 million monthly active users across Xbox and PlayStation, the Activision-Blizzard deal is finally starting to look like a smart move rather than just a massive bill.
What you should do next
If you're holding MSFT or thinking about jumping in, don't just stare at the daily ticker. The real story is in the January 28th earnings report.
Keep a close eye on the "Azure and other cloud services" growth percentage. If that number stays at or above 40%, the capacity constraints might not matter as much to the big institutional investors. However, if that growth dips toward the 30s, expect some volatility.
Check the current "Relative Strength Index" (RSI). Right now, it’s bouncing back from near-oversold territory, which often suggests a short-term rebound is in the cards. Just remember, in the world of Big Tech, things can change with a single press release about a new AI model or a government regulation.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Verify the exact earnings release time on the Microsoft Investor Relations website to avoid being caught off guard by after-hours volatility.
- Compare the Forward P/E ratio of Microsoft against its peers like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) to see if you're paying a premium for the AI "hype."
- If you are a long-term holder, focus on the Commercial Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO)—it’s currently near $400 billion, which represents guaranteed future revenue.