You’ve probably been there. It’s the fourth round of your draft, you need a wide receiver, and Michael Pittman Jr. is staring you in the face. He’s the "safe" pick. The floor play. The guy who will get you 10 points even if the stadium is on fire. But then Sunday rolls around, and you’re watching a quarterback sail a pass three feet over his head while Pittman limps off with a back issue.
Honestly, the Michael Pittman Jr. fantasy experience has been a wild ride lately. One week he looks like a PPR god, and the next, he’s basically a cardio specialist running routes for an offense that can't decide who is playing quarterback.
If you want to win your league in 2026, you have to stop looking at Pittman as the player he was in 2023. The landscape in Indy has shifted, and the "boring but reliable" tag might actually be a trap.
The QB Carousel is Killing the Vibe
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Or rather, the revolving door at quarterback. In 2025, we saw Daniel Jones—yes, that Daniel Jones—actually spark a massive early-season run for Pittman. Through the first nine weeks of last season, Pittman was the WR11 in half-PPR. He had 52 catches and six touchdowns. It was glorious.
Then the wheels came off.
Jones got hurt, the Colts went 1-7 down the stretch, and Pittman’s production fell off a cliff. He finished the year with 80 catches for 784 yards. If you look at the total season stats, they look "okay," but the reality was a tale of two seasons. He scored a career-high seven touchdowns, but those mostly came in that early-season flurry.
The problem is consistency. You can’t win a championship when your WR1 or WR2 gives you 3.1 points in a must-win Week 18 game, which is exactly what Pittman did against Houston to close out 2025.
Why the "Alpha" Tag is Fading
For years, Pittman was the only show in town. He was the "X" receiver who demanded a 30% target share because, frankly, who else was going to catch the ball?
That isn't the case anymore.
- Alec Pierce actually took over as the top yardage threat in 2025.
- Josh Downs has become the preferred chain-mover in the slot.
- The emergence of Adonai Mitchell means there are more mouths to feed than ever.
Pittman is still a "dawg," as Colts fans love to say. He’s tough. He catches the ball in traffic. But in fantasy, toughness doesn't extra points. Targets do. And when those targets are being split four ways or being thrown by a backup quarterback, the ceiling collapses.
The Injury Factor Nobody Mentions
Everyone talks about Anthony Richardson’s injuries, but have we looked at Pittman lately? He played through a literal broken back for a huge chunk of 2024. In 2025, he dealt with a glute injury that hampered him mid-season and then a calf injury that knocked him out of the finale.
He’s 28 now. In WR years, that’s the start of the "wait and see" phase. He isn't the young breakout candidate anymore. He’s a veteran who has taken a lot of hits over the middle.
"Pittman is possibly dealing with spondylolysis, a back condition that never heals," noted some injury analysts last year.
That is terrifying for a guy whose entire game is built on physicality and winning at the catch point. If he loses even 5% of his explosion, he becomes a possession receiver who relies entirely on volume. If that volume isn't 10+ targets a game, he’s a fantasy WR3.
The Contract Drama and 2026 Outlook
Here is the part that might catch you off guard. Michael Pittman Jr. might not even be a Colt by the time you’re drafting for the 2026 season.
He has a massive $29 million cap hit this year. The Colts can save $24 million by releasing or trading him, and with Alec Pierce stepping up, the rumors are swirling. If he lands on a team with an elite QB? Buy, buy, buy. If he stays in Indy with a "bridge" QB or a struggling youngster? You might want to let someone else take that risk.
He's currently being drafted as a low-end WR2, but honestly, that feels like paying for past performance.
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How to Value Him Right Now
If you're in a dynasty league, you've got to be looking to sell on any "bounce-back" hype. In redraft, he’s a classic "dead zone" wide receiver. You’ll be tempted to take him because you know the name, but you’ll probably regret passing on the high-upside rookies for him.
Look at the splits. When Joe Flacco or Daniel Jones were playing well, Pittman was a star. When the QB play dipped, he vanished. Unless the Colts (or his new team) guarantee top-tier QB play, Pittman is a high-risk, moderate-reward asset.
What you should do next:
Check the final Colts roster cuts and the Week 1 starter announcement. If Pittman is still the clear WR1 with a veteran QB who loves short-area accuracy, he’s worth a look in the 5th round. If they are moving toward a youth movement or he's traded to a run-heavy system, drop him down your draft board and don't look back. Efficiency is the name of the game in 2026, and a 60% catch rate on bad targets won't win you a trophy.