Michael Moore was feeling "pretty damn good" last August. He really was. After weeks of what he called "elder abuse"—the Democratic Party’s insistence on keeping a clearly struggling Joe Biden at the top of the ticket—the sudden pivot to Kamala Harris felt like a miracle to him. He called it a "pink cloud," borrowing a term from recovery circles to describe that initial, intoxicating rush of hope.
For a few months, it seemed like Moore had his groove back. He’s the guy who famously predicted Trump’s 2016 win when everyone else was laughing at the idea. He’s the "Rust Belt whisperer." So when he started telling anyone who would listen that Harris was going to "nail" Trump, people paid attention. He loved the "weird" strategy. He loved the energy.
Then, Election Day actually happened.
The Warning Michael Moore Gave Kamala Harris (And Why It Was Ignored)
Moore wasn't just a cheerleader. He was actually pretty terrified that the Democrats would do what he thinks they do best: "blow it."
He spent a lot of time on his podcast and Substack practically begging the Harris campaign to stay away from the "centrist" trap. To Moore, the math was simple. You don't win by convincing three Republicans in a country club to change their minds; you win by getting young people, Arab Americans, and the working class to show up.
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Specifically, he sounded the alarm about Michigan.
"We are risking losing Michigan and the election. Kamala. Please."
That was Moore’s plea in October 2024. He was looking at the "uncommitted" movement—voters furious over the administration's support of the war in Gaza—and seeing a repeat of 2016. He knew that in a state like Michigan, a few thousand votes is the whole game. He wanted Harris to break from Biden on Gaza. He wanted her to talk about student debt and affordable housing with the same fire he used in Roger & Me.
She didn't really do that. She stayed the course. And Moore, despite his private fears, publicly doubled down on a win.
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"It's Raining Women": The Prediction That Aged Poorly
On the morning of the election, Moore was still projecting total confidence. He even tweeted, "Take a look out the window. It’s raining women." He believed a "tsunami" of female voters, angry over the overturning of Roe v. Wade, would carry Harris to the finish line regardless of the polling.
He wasn't the only one who got it wrong, but because he’s Michael Moore, the backlash was loud. Critics were quick to point out that while women did show up, they didn't show up in the monolithic block Moore expected. Especially not working-class women in the Midwest who were more worried about the price of eggs than "satire and irony" at a debate.
What Moore got right vs. what he missed
- The "Weird" Factor: Moore was right that calling Trump and JD Vance "weird" would get under their skin. It did. But "weird" doesn't pay the rent.
- The Gaza Effect: He was spot on here. The loss of support among Arab American and young voters in key precincts was a massive blow to the Harris ticket.
- The "Hidden" Vote: Moore thought there was a hidden pro-Harris vote. In reality, the "hidden" vote was once again for Trump—people who don't talk to pollsters but definitely show up at the ballot box.
The Silence After the Storm
Since the 2024 results solidified, Moore has been a bit quieter than usual. It's a sharp contrast to 2016, when he spent months saying "I told you so" to a party that ignored his warnings about the working class.
This time, he was part of the establishment's optimism. He had bought into the momentum. He thought the "joy" campaign was enough. Honestly, it’s gotta be a tough pill to swallow for a guy who built his career on being the one person who understands the "forgotten" voter.
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The reality is that Kamala Harris faced a unique set of challenges. She had to run a 100-day sprint while tethered to an unpopular incumbent's record. Moore thought she could "issue significant executive orders" and show she was "unstoppable," but the clock ran out before she could truly define herself outside of Biden's shadow.
What Happens Now?
If you're looking at the wreckage of the 2024 election and wondering where the progressive movement goes, you have to look at the data Moore used to cite. He’s right that the electorate is getting younger. He’s right that Gen Z and Millennials are becoming the dominant voting bloc.
But as we saw, you can't just assume they’ll vote for the "not-Trump" candidate.
Moving forward involves a few things:
- Economic Populism: If the left doesn't find a way to talk about the cost of living that resonates in a grocery store aisle, they will keep losing the "Blue Wall."
- Foreign Policy Accountability: The "uncommitted" voters aren't going away. Future candidates will have to address these concerns early, not in the final two weeks of an election.
- Authentic Engagement: Voters can smell a "scripted" video a mile away. Moore’s best work was always raw and unpolished; politics probably needs more of that and less "consultant-speak."
Moore might be "broken" for a bit, as some of his podcast listeners have suggested online, but he usually doesn't stay quiet for long. The next time he speaks up, he’ll probably be back to his old self: yelling at the DNC to stop acting like they’re in a West Wing episode and start acting like they’re in Flint, Michigan.
Next Steps for You
If you want to understand the shift in the Midwest better, you should look into the final precinct-level voting data from Wayne County, Michigan. It tells a much more detailed story than the national exit polls. You might also want to track Michael Moore's Substack for his upcoming "post-mortem" analysis, which he's been hinting at for weeks.