When you think about Florida football rivalries, your mind probably goes straight to the Gators and the Noles. Or maybe the Hurricanes. But honestly, the professional battle between the Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is one of the most underrated, weirdly competitive series in the NFL.
They don't play often.
Since they sit in different conferences—Miami in the AFC and Tampa in the NFC—they only cross paths in the regular season once every four years. Yet, every time they do, things seem to get weird. Just look at their most recent meeting on December 28, 2025. Miami walked away with a 20-17 win at Hard Rock Stadium, but that score doesn't even begin to cover the chaos of that afternoon.
The December 2025 Shocker: A Rookie's Statement
Most fans went into that Week 17 matchup thinking the Bucs would steamroll a Dolphins team that had already been eliminated from playoff contention. Tampa Bay was fighting for their postseason life. They had Baker Mayfield under center and a receiving corps that, on paper, should have dismantled Miami's secondary.
Instead, we saw the arrival of Quinn Ewers.
The Dolphins had recently benched Tua Tagovailoa, and Ewers, the rookie out of Texas, looked like he belonged. He wasn't throwing for 400 yards, but he was efficient. His 63-yard bomb to fellow rookie Theo Wease Jr. in the first quarter was the kind of play that changes a franchise's trajectory.
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Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers games usually hinge on one or two catastrophic mistakes. In 2025, those mistakes belonged to Tampa. Baker Mayfield threw two interceptions and lost a crucial fumble after getting rocked by Bradley Chubb. Even with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both finding the end zone, the Bucs couldn't overcome their own "self-inflicted wounds," as Brianna Dix noted in the post-game reports.
A History of One-Score Heartbreaks
If you look at the all-time series, the Buccaneers actually lead 7–6. It’s that close.
Since their first meeting back in 1976—a 23-20 Dolphins win—this series has been defined by late-game heroics and bizarre stat lines. Think back to 1985. Dan Marino was at the peak of his powers, throwing for 302 yards. On the other side, Steve DeBerg was matching him blow for blow. Miami won that one 41-38 on a last-second field goal.
It’s sorta become a tradition.
Out of the 13 times they’ve met in the regular season, nearly half the games have been decided by three points or fewer. It’s like the "Sunshine Series" (as some call it) refuses to be boring. Even when one team is significantly better than the other, the proximity—only about 200 air miles separate the two stadiums—adds a layer of "big brother vs. little brother" energy that keeps things tense.
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The Breakdown of Dominance
- The 70s and 80s: Miami owned the early years. With Don Shula at the helm, the Dolphins were a well-oiled machine while the Bucs were struggling through their early expansion growing pains.
- The Turn of the Century: Tampa Bay started flipping the script around 1997. The Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn era saw the Bucs win three straight against Miami.
- Modern Era: Before the 2025 upset, the Bucs had won three in a row, including a 45-17 shellacking in 2021 where Tom Brady threw five touchdowns.
Why the 2025 Matchup Flipped the Script
What’s wild is how the rosters have shifted. In the 2025 game, Miami’s defense didn't just survive; they dictated the pace. Ashtyn Davis was everywhere, recording seven tackles and a pick.
Meanwhile, the Bucs’ run game was nonexistent. Bucky Irving, who had been such a spark plug for Tampa earlier in his career, was held to just 19 yards on 9 carries. When you can't run the ball in South Florida heat, you’re basically asking for a long afternoon.
The Dolphins' offensive line deserves a ton of credit here too. Aaron Brewer has quietly become one of the best centers in the league—PFF had him graded as the second-best center in the NFL late in the 2025 season. He managed to neutralize Vita Vea just enough to let De'Von Achane rack up 83 yards on the ground.
Achane is the real deal. He’s not just a speedster; his vision in the 2025 game was the difference between punting and keeping drives alive.
The Preseason Paradox
One thing most casual fans get wrong is thinking these teams are strangers. Because they are so close geographically, they’ve played a staggering 32 times in the preseason.
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That is more than double the amount of times the Bucs have played any other team in exhibition games.
This means the coaching staffs usually have a much deeper book on each other than you'd expect for interconference rivals. Todd Bowles, for example, has deep ties to Miami, having served as their interim head coach back in 2011. These connections run deep, and they often lead to specific tactical "chess matches" that you don't see in a typical Week 17 game.
What This Means for Your Betting and Fantasy Strategy
If you’re looking at future matchups between the Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, stop looking at the overall record. Look at the defensive pressure rates.
Miami's ability to generate sacks—they ranked 11th in the league in sack rate during the 2025 season—is the kryptonite for the Bucs' timing-based passing offense. Conversely, if Tampa can't establish a run game early, they become one-dimensional, and that’s when Mayfield (or whoever is under center) starts pressing and making mistakes.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Watch the Turnover Margin: In this specific rivalry, the team that wins the turnover battle has won over 80% of the matchups. In 2025, Miami was +3 in turnovers, which was the entire game.
- Rookie Impact: Don't sleep on the "next man up" in Miami. The transition from Tua to Ewers showed that Mike McDaniel’s system is more about timing and spacing than pure veteran experience.
- The Heat Factor: Games in Miami during the late season still hit different. Tampa is used to humidity, but the sun-shading canopy at Hard Rock Stadium is designed to bake the opposing sideline while keeping the Dolphins cool. It’s a real home-field advantage.
Next time these two teams are scheduled to meet—likely not for a few more years unless they meet in a Super Bowl—don't just check the playoff standings. This is an in-state scrap where the records usually go out the window.
To stay ahead, keep an eye on the injury reports for the Dolphins' secondary and the Buccaneers' offensive line. Those two units usually decide who gets to claim "South Florida Superiority" for the next four years.