Buying tech stocks used to be simple. You looked at the user growth, checked if the ads were clicking, and rode the wave. But if you’re looking at the Meta stock price today, sitting around $620.25 as of mid-January 2026, you’re seeing a much weirder story.
Honestly, the numbers are kind of a head-scratcher if you only look at the surface.
Meta (the artist formerly known as Facebook) is currently trading well off its 52-week high of $796.25. Why? Because Mark Zuckerberg has decided to spend money like it’s going out of style. We’re talking about a capital expenditure (CapEx) plan that’s hitting $70 billion to $72 billion for 2025 and is projected to climb even higher in 2026.
The market is, predictably, a little spooked. But here’s the thing: while the stock price has stumbled, the underlying business is actually a beast.
The Weird Reality of the Current Meta Stock Price
Let’s talk about the "shellacking" that happened recently. Back in late 2025, Meta shares took a hit after their Q3 earnings. On paper, it looked like a disaster—Net Income dropped 83%.
But you've gotta look at the fine print. That massive drop was mostly due to a one-time, non-cash tax charge of $15.93 billion related to something called the "One Big Beautiful Bill" act.
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If you strip that out, Meta’s adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) was actually $7.25, beating what the experts expected. Basically, the company is making more money than ever, but the "price" of the stock is being weighed down by two things:
- That one-time tax hit.
- Fear that the AI spending won't pay off fast enough.
By The Numbers: Where We Stand Today
- Current Price (Jan 16, 2026): $620.25
- 52-Week Range: $479.80 – $796.25
- Market Cap: ~$1.56 Trillion
- Forward P/E Ratio: Roughly 21.5x (based on 2026 estimates)
Why Is Everyone So Obsessed with CapEx?
In the investing world, "CapEx" is basically the money a company spends on "stuff"—in Meta's case, that "stuff" is massive data centers filled with Nvidia chips.
Zuckerberg is essentially building a "Superintelligence Lab." He’s told investors that he’s building an industry-leading amount of compute. For the year 2026, management warned that spending growth will be "notably larger" than in 2025.
That’s a lot of billions.
The fear is that Meta is turning into a "utility" for AI—spending all its cash just to keep up, which eats into the profit margins. However, if you're a "glass half full" kind of person, you see that Instagram engagement is up 30% because of these AI recommendations. Reels is now hitting a $50 billion annual run rate.
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The AI isn't just a futuristic dream; it’s the engine currently making your feed more addictive.
The Analyst Divide: Is it a "Buy" or a "Wait"?
Despite the price dip, the pros are surprisingly bullish. Out of about 56 brokerage firms tracking the stock, nearly 80% still have a "Strong Buy" rating.
Analysts like Deepak Mathivanan from Cantor Fitzgerald and the team at Rosenblatt have set price targets as high as $1,117. The average target is floating around $835. That’s a massive gap between the current price and where they think it’s going.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think Meta is still just a "social media company." It's not.
It's effectively an AI-infrastructure company that happens to own the world’s most valuable digital real estate. They are moving toward a "unified AI system" that runs Facebook, Instagram, and Threads all at once.
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And then there's the hardware. Reality Labs—the metaverse division everyone loves to hate—actually saw revenue jump 74% in Q3 2025. Those AI-enabled Ray-Ban glasses? They’ve been flying off the shelves.
The Risks: What Could Actually Break the Stock?
It's not all sunshine and hardware. There are real reasons the Meta stock price isn't at $1,000 yet.
- Regulatory Headwinds: The EU and U.S. are still breathing down their necks regarding privacy and antitrust.
- Asian Ad Spend: There’s been a noticeable fluctuation in ad spending from Asian companies (like Temu or Shein), which have been huge drivers for Meta’s revenue lately.
- The "Margin Squeeze": If expenses grow at a "significantly faster rate" than revenue in 2026—as the CFO warned—those 40% operating margins are going to shrink.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at Meta right now, don't just stare at the daily ticker. It’s too volatile. Instead, keep an eye on these three signals over the next few months:
- Watch the Jan 28, 2026 Earnings Call: This is when they’ll likely give the "hard numbers" for the 2026 spending plan. If the number is even higher than $100 billion, expect a dip.
- Monitor "DAP" (Daily Active People): As long as this number (currently around 3.43 billion) keeps growing, the ad machine stays alive.
- Check the P/E Ratio: At a forward P/E of ~21x, Meta is actually trading at a "discount" compared to some other big tech peers like Microsoft or Nvidia.
Next Steps for You: Start by reviewing your current exposure to the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. If you decide to move on Meta, consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy over the next quarter to hedge against the volatility expected during the 2026 infrastructure ramp-up. You should also set price alerts for the $600 support level; if it breaks below that, it might signal a deeper market correction that provides a better entry point.