Buying Meta today feels a lot like staring at a magic eye poster. If you squint too hard at the daily tickers, you just see a messy blur of red and green. But if you relax your eyes and look at the actual plumbing of the business, a much bigger picture starts to emerge.
As of the market close on Friday, January 16, 2026, the current Meta stock price sits at $620.25.
It’s down slightly—about 0.09%—on the day. That tiny dip is basically noise. If you’ve been watching the stock for the last month, though, you’ve noticed it’s been a bit of a bumpy ride, down roughly 5% over the past week. Wall Street is currently playing a high-stakes game of "wait and see" as we approach the Q4 2025 earnings call on January 28.
The Massive AI "Tax" Everyone Is Worried About
Honestly, the biggest thing weighing on the stock isn't whether people are still using Facebook. They are. It’s the spending. Mark Zuckerberg has basically told investors to buckle up because the 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) is going to be "notably larger" than the $70-72 billion they spent in 2025.
We are talking about potentially $100 billion a year just on data centers and AI chips.
That is a staggering amount of money. To put it in perspective, that’s more than the entire market cap of some Fortune 500 companies being spent every single year on hardware. Skeptics like the folks at Trefis are worried this could lead to "multiple contraction." Basically, they fear that if Meta spends all its cash on AI and doesn't show a clear, direct profit from it immediately, the stock price won't be able to sustain its current valuation.
But here is where most people get it wrong: the AI is already paying for itself.
The Invisible Money Maker
While everyone is looking for a "Meta GPT" subscription or some flashy new consumer app, the real money is being made in the basement.
- Advantage+: This is Meta’s AI ad engine. It basically automates the hard work for advertisers.
- Reels Monetization: Remember when everyone thought TikTok would kill Instagram? It didn't. AI-driven recommendations have turned Reels into a massive revenue funnel.
- The $60 Billion Run Rate: Analyst Barton Crockett from Rosenblatt Securities pointed out something huge. Meta’s AI-enhanced ad tools are already driving an annualized revenue run rate of over $60 billion.
So, while the $100 billion CapEx number for 2026 sounds scary, Meta is one of the only companies on earth actually generating tens of billions in extra revenue because of the AI they’ve already built. It's not a "bet" anymore. It's an optimization.
What Analysts Are Actually Saying
If you look at the consensus, the "smart money" is surprisingly bullish despite the price volatility. Out of 69 analysts tracking the stock, about 88% have a BUY rating.
| Metric | Current Value (Jan 2026) |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $620.25 |
| 52-Week High | $796.25 |
| Average Target Price | $835.59 |
| P/E Ratio | 27.47 |
Piper Sandler recently named Meta their "top large-cap pick for 2026." They’re looking at revenue guidance that could hit $53 billion for Q1 alone. That’s 25% year-over-year growth for a company that is already a titan. You just don't see that often.
The Stock Split Rumors
You've probably heard the chatter about a potential stock split. Meta is the only one of the "Magnificent Seven" that has never done one. With the price hovering in the $600s and having touched nearly $800 in the last year, a 10-for-1 or 4-for-1 split is the talk of the town.
Does a split change the value of the company? No.
But it does make the stock "feel" cheaper for retail investors. It’s psychological. If Zuck decides to pull the trigger on a split in 2026, expect a lot of retail hype to flood back into the ticker.
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The Reality Labs "Problem"
We can't talk about the Meta stock price without mentioning Reality Labs. This is the division making the Quest headsets and those Ray-Ban AI glasses. It has lost over $73 billion since 2021.
That is a lot of zeros.
However, the narrative is shifting. We’re seeing Meta pivot away from the "pure" VR metaverse and toward Augmented Reality (AR) and AI-powered wearables. The Ray-Ban Meta glasses have been a surprise hit. Bloomberg recently reported that Meta is doubling production for the next version of these glasses. If Meta can prove that they own the "face" the way Apple owns the "pocket," the losses in Reality Labs will suddenly look like the best investment of the decade.
Why the Next Two Weeks Matter
The January 28 earnings report is the big catalyst. Analysts are expecting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $8.29. If they beat that—and they’ve beaten estimates for the last four quarters straight—the stock could easily snap back toward that $700 mark.
But watch the guidance.
If Zuckerberg talks too much about "long-term" spending without showing more "short-term" ad growth, the market might get cranky. Wall Street has a very short attention span.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at Meta right now, don't just trade the headlines.
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- Watch the $600 Support: The stock has shown some historical support around the $600 level. If it holds there through the earnings volatility, it's a sign of institutional strength.
- Monitor Ad Load: Keep an ear out for "ad impressions" in the earnings call. The AI has allowed Meta to increase the number of ads people see without making them leave the app. That’s a delicate balance, but it’s their biggest growth lever.
- The Regulatory Wildcard: The EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) is the "boogeyman" in the room. New ad models launching this month in Europe are under fire. Any massive fines or forced changes to how they target ads in Europe could shave 5-10% off the price overnight.
Meta isn't just a social media company anymore. It’s a massive AI foundry that happens to have four billion customers. The current price reflects a lot of fear about spending, but the underlying engine is still screaming.
Next Steps for You:
Check the Meta Investor Relations site on January 28 at 4:30 PM ET for the live Q4 results. Specifically, look for the "Family of Apps" operating margin—if that stays above 40% while they're spending billions on AI, the "spending problem" isn't actually a problem at all.