Honestly, if you're looking at the Mesa weather 14 day forecast and expecting a standard "winter" experience, you're in for a bit of a shock. Most people hear "January" and think of parkas and snow shovels. But here in the East Valley, January 2026 is feeling a lot more like a long, drawn-out spring break.
Right now, as of Friday, January 16, the current temperature is sitting at a crisp 47°F. It’s sunny, the wind is barely a whisper from the east at 4 mph, and the humidity is hanging out at 50%. Basically, it’s that perfect "hoodie morning" that turns into a "short-sleeve afternoon."
The Mid-January Heat Wave (Sorta)
You've probably noticed that the desert doesn't do "cold" like the rest of the country. Today’s high is hitting 76°F. That’s not a typo. While the Northeast is likely digging out from under three feet of slush, we’re looking at a UV index of 3. It’s sunny and clear, with a low tonight of 46°F.
Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, keeps the streak alive. We're looking at a high of 75°F and a low of 49°F. The wind picks up slightly—about 8 mph from the northeast—but it’s nothing that’s going to ruin your tee time at Longbow or Las Sendas.
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Is Rain Actually Coming?
The biggest misconception about Mesa is that it never rains. It does, eventually. If you look closely at the Mesa weather 14 day forecast, there’s a little wobble starting around Sunday, January 18. We’re still hitting 75°F during the day, but the clouds are moving in. There’s a 10% chance of rain Sunday night through Monday.
I know, 10% sounds like nothing. In Arizona, that usually means a few "Arizona raindrops"—those giant, dusty drops that just make your car look like it’s been through a mud wrestling match.
- Monday, Jan 19: Cloudy, high of 74°F, low of 49°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Mostly sunny again, high of 75°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Temps start to dip. We’re looking at 72°F.
The Late-January Cool Down
By the time we hit next Thursday, January 22, the "chill" actually arrives. And by chill, I mean the high drops to 70°F. For locals, this is when the North Face jackets come out. For visitors, it's still paradise.
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The real shift happens on Friday, January 23. We're looking at a mostly cloudy day with a high of 69°F and a 20% chance of rain. This is the coolest day in the immediate outlook. If you’re planning a hike at Usery Mountain, this might be the day to bring an extra layer.
Breaking Down the Numbers
I’ve seen a lot of people get confused by how fast the temperature drops once the sun goes behind the Superstitions. It’s a desert thing. You can lose 30 degrees in a matter of hours.
| Date | High Temp | Low Temp | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16 | 76°F | 46°F | Sunny |
| Jan 17 | 75°F | 49°F | Sunny |
| Jan 24 | 67°F | 49°F | Sunny |
| Jan 26 | 75°F | 57°F | Sunny |
Wait, look at Monday, January 26. The high bounces back to 75°F, but the low stays way up at 57°F. That’s a unusually warm night for late January. If you’re out at Downtown Mesa for dinner, you won’t even need a patio heater.
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What You Actually Need to Pack
Don't be the person who brings a heavy wool coat. You'll look ridiculous and be miserable by noon. Honestly, Mesa weather this time of year is all about the "onion method"—layers, people.
- The Base: A breathable t-shirt.
- The Mid: A light flannel or a hoodie for the 8:00 AM coffee run.
- The Shell: Maybe a denim jacket, but you’ll likely leave it in the car by 11:00 AM.
- Sunscreen: Even with a UV index of 2 or 3, the desert sun is deceptive. It'll crisp you up while you're thinking it's "too cool" to burn.
Final Reality Check
The Mesa weather 14 day forecast shows a remarkably stable pattern. We aren't seeing the wild swings or the "freeze warnings" that occasionally haunt the valley in early January. The wind is staying low, mostly between 4 mph and 8 mph, so there’s no major threat of those nasty dust storms (haboobs) that we usually save for the summer monsoon.
If you’re planning outdoor events, the window between January 24 and January 26 looks like the "sweet spot." You've got highs in the high 60s to mid 70s and almost zero chance of rain. It’s basically the reason everyone moves here.
Your Next Steps:
Keep an eye on the humidity levels if you have respiratory issues; it’s dropping from 50% today down to 15% by tomorrow. Start hydrating now. Even if you aren't sweating, the desert air is literally pulling moisture out of you. If you’re heading out for a long walk or a bike ride, double your water intake starting today to stay ahead of the curve.