Right now, if you're looking at Merck & Co., you’re probably seeing two very different stories. On one hand, you have the Wall Street narrative: a pharmaceutical titan staring down a massive "patent cliff" in 2028 when its golden goose, Keytruda, loses its protection. On the other, you have a company moving so fast and spending so much money that it’s almost hard to keep track.
Honestly, the Merck in the news cycle this January has been kind of a whirlwind. Between massive acquisition rumors and new drug launches, the company is basically trying to reinvent itself in real-time.
That $30 Billion Rumor and Why It Matters
The biggest thing buzzing in the industry right now is the report from the Financial Times that Merck is in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines. We are talking about a deal valued somewhere between $28 billion and $32 billion. That’s not pocket change, even for a company worth over $270 billion.
Revolution Medicines isn't some household name yet, but they are doing some pretty wild things with RAS inhibitors—specifically targeting "undruggable" KRAS mutations that drive cancers like pancreatic and lung cancer. If this deal goes through, it’s a clear signal that Merck isn't just worried about 2028; they are planning to dominate the next decade of oncology.
But here’s the kicker: Revolution doesn't even have a commercial product yet. It’s a pre-commercial biotech. Merck is essentially betting $30 billion on trial data and potential. Some analysts think it’s a masterstroke, while others are biting their nails over the price tag.
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The Keytruda "Sequel" is Already Here
You can’t talk about Merck without talking about Keytruda. It’s the best-selling drug in the world, pulling in nearly $30 billion last year alone. But the "cliff" everyone keeps mentioning? It’s real. In 2028, cheaper biosimilars (basically generic versions of biologics) will start hitting the market.
To fight this, Merck just launched Keytruda Qlex. This is the subcutaneous version of the drug.
Think about it this way: instead of sitting in a chair for 30 to 60 minutes getting an IV infusion, patients can get a shot that takes about two minutes. It’s better for the patient, sure, but it’s also a huge business move. Because Qlex has its own set of patents, it could effectively extend Merck’s market share way past the 2028 deadline.
Interestingly, recent Phase 3 data showed Qlex had a 45% overall response rate in certain lung cancers, which actually slightly edged out the 42% seen in the original IV version.
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Fresh Moves from Early January 2026
While everyone is focused on the big cancer deals, Merck has been quietly busy elsewhere. Just last week, they wrapped up the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics.
This wasn't a mega-deal like the Revolution rumor, but it’s strategically huge. They picked up a candidate called CD388, which is a drug-Fc conjugate designed to prevent the flu for an entire season with one dose. It’s not a vaccine; it’s a long-acting biologic. If you’re someone who is immunocompromised and doesn't respond well to traditional flu shots, this could be a literal lifesaver.
Also, the FDA just accepted a New Drug Application (NDA) for pimicotinib. This is for patients with tenosynovial giant cell tumors (TGCT), a rare and often painful type of tumor. It’s another example of Merck diversifying away from just "the Keytruda company."
What’s Coming Next?
Mark your calendars for February 3, 2026. That’s when Merck is scheduled to hold its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call.
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Wall Street is expecting earnings per share (EPS) to land around $2.07. But honestly, the numbers might take a backseat to the Q&A session. Everyone wants to know if the Revolution Medicines deal is happening and how the launch of Winrevair (their new blockbuster for pulmonary arterial hypertension) is scaling. Winrevair already cleared nearly $1 billion in its first nine months of 2025, and 2026 is expected to be its breakout year.
Actionable Insights for Investors and Observers
If you are tracking Merck's trajectory, keep these specific points in your sights:
- Watch the RAS Pipeline: If the Revolution deal closes, Merck becomes the undisputed leader in RAS-targeted therapies. This is the "new frontier" of cancer treatment.
- Monitor Subcutaneous Uptake: The success of Keytruda Qlex is the single most important factor for the stock's stability heading into 2028. If doctors and patients switch rapidly, the "patent cliff" becomes more of a "patent slope."
- Earnings Day (Feb 3): Listen for updates on Winrevair sales. This drug is their primary hedge against oncology fluctuations.
- Regulatory Milestones: Keep an eye on pimicotinib's FDA decision date, likely coming mid-2026.
Merck is currently trading around $108-$112. It’s a premium valuation for a reason—they are aggressively buying their way out of a future crisis. Whether that $30 billion gamble pays off is the only question that really matters.