You've probably seen the headlines. Merck & Co Inc stock price is doing this weird dance where it hits a 14-month high one week and then everyone starts panicking about "cliffs" the next. Honestly, it’s enough to give any retail investor a bit of whiplash. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $108 or $109. That’s a decent recovery from the mid-$80s we saw late last year, but there’s a massive shadow looming over the ticker symbol MRK.
People keep talking about 2028 like it’s the end of the world. Why? Because that’s when Keytruda, their absolute monster of a cancer drug, starts losing its patent protection.
The Keytruda Addiction
Basically, Merck is a one-trick pony that’s trying really, really hard to learn new tricks before the audience leaves. Keytruda brought in something like $29 billion in 2024. That was nearly half of the company’s total revenue. Imagine if half your paycheck just... stopped coming in two years. You'd be scrambling too.
The market knows this. It’s why the P/E ratio feels a bit suppressed compared to some of the high-flying biotech stocks. Investors are pricing in the "crater" that research firms like Valens Research are predicting for 2029.
But here is the thing most people miss: Merck isn't just sitting there waiting for the inevitable.
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The $70 Billion Pivot for Merck & Co Inc Stock Price
At the JP Morgan Healthcare conference earlier this month, CEO Rob Davis dropped a pretty bold claim. He thinks they can hit $70 billion in revenue by the mid-2030s. That’s not just "surviving" the patent cliff; that’s growing right through it.
How? It’s a mix of internal "homegrown" science and a massive shopping spree. They've spent over $60 billion since 2021 buying up smaller biotechs. They’re currently looking at a $20 billion deal for Revolution Medicines. They aren't just buying companies; they're buying time and diversified revenue.
What the Analysts are Whispering
If you look at the big banks, the vibe is... mixed. You've got UBS raising their target to $130, while Zacks recently slapped a "strong sell" on it.
- The Bulls: They love the dividend. A 3.1% yield is nothing to sneeze at when the stock price is also moving up. They also point to Winrevair, which is showing huge promise for pulmonary arterial hypertension.
- The Bears: They see the Gardasil sales slump in China—down 41% recently—and they worry the new pipeline won't mature fast enough.
- The Realists: Most are at a "Hold." The consensus price target is sitting right around $112.87.
The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($101.65 and $89.82, respectively). That’s technically a "constructive" setup. It means the momentum is upward, at least for now. But in pharma, one bad FDA readout can wipe out months of gains in a single afternoon.
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More Than Just Cancer Meds
We can't ignore the animal health side of the business. It grew about 5% to $1.6 billion in the first quarter of last year. It’s a boring, steady business, but in a world of patent cliffs and high-stakes oncology trials, "boring and steady" is actually a beautiful thing for the Merck & Co Inc stock price.
Then there’s the "subcutaneous" play. Merck is trying to develop an injectable version of Keytruda that’s easier to administer. If they can get patients onto that version before the 2028 patent expiration for the IV version, they might be able to protect a huge chunk of that revenue. It’s a classic pharma move called "product hopping," and it’s a key part of their survival strategy.
Is the Dividend Safe?
Short answer: Yeah, probably.
The payout ratio is around 42.6%. That’s actually quite healthy. It means they’re only using about 43% of their earnings to pay those dividends, leaving plenty of cash to keep buying those $15 billion biotech startups. They’ve increased the dividend for 16 years straight. For a "widows and orphans" type of stock, that’s the main attraction.
$3.40 per share annually. That’s the current payout.
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Why 2026 is the Real "Make or Break" Year
Davis said they want to "de-risk" $35 billion of their $70 billion goal by the end of this year. That means we’re going to see a ton of Phase III trial data coming out in the next 12 months.
- Watch the Oncology ADCs: They’ve got a big partnership with Daiichi Sankyo for antibody-drug conjugates. This is the "smart bomb" of cancer treatment.
- Cholesterol: Their oral PCSK9 inhibitor (MK-0616) could be a $5 billion drug. Most people hate needles, so an oral pill for high cholesterol is a potential game-changer.
- The M&A Engine: Keep an eye on the news for any more $10B+ acquisitions. They need to fill the gap left by Keytruda, and they need to do it fast.
Honestly, investing in Merck right now is a bet on their scientists and their checkbook. If you think they can buy enough innovation to offset the 2028 cliff, the stock looks cheap. If you think they're just delaying the inevitable, you're probably looking at the "Sell" button.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you're holding MRK or thinking about jumping in, here’s how to actually play this based on the current data:
- Check the RSI: The 14-day Relative Strength Index is around 55. That’s neutral. Don't chase it if it spikes toward 70, as that usually signals the stock is overbought and due for a pullback.
- Watch the $105 Support: If the price dips back toward $105, that’s where historical support has been. It might be a better entry point than buying at the top of a rally.
- Monitor the Pipeline: Specifically, look for data on "subcutaneous Keytruda." That is the single most important binary event for the long-term health of the company.
- Reinvest the Dividends: If you’re a long-term bull, using the 3% yield to buy more fractional shares is the only way to counteract the "choppy" sideways movement we've seen in the broader healthcare sector.
The Merck & Co Inc stock price isn't going to double overnight. This is a slow-motion transformation of a legacy giant. You're either in it for the steady income and the "shallow" transition through 2028, or you're better off looking at high-growth biotechs with less baggage.