Honestly, if you've been watching the merck & co inc share price lately, you’ve probably felt a bit of whiplash. One minute it’s a boring dividend play, and the next, it’s a high-stakes bet on the future of cancer treatment and cardiovascular health. As of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing the stock (ticker: MRK) hover around $108.84.
That’s a slight dip from the recent close of $110.97, but don't let the daily noise distract you. The real story isn't in the decimal points. It's in the massive shift happening behind the scenes at the Rahway, New Jersey headquarters.
The Keytruda Cliff and Why It’s Not a Disaster
Everyone keeps talking about the "patent cliff" in 2028. That's when Keytruda, the absolute titan of oncology drugs, loses exclusivity. It’s scary because Keytruda makes up over 40% of their revenue. Basically, it's the sun that the entire Merck solar system revolves around.
But here is the thing: Merck is already moving the goalposts. They just got FDA approval for a subcutaneous version—essentially a shot instead of an IV—which should extend their patent protection. Plus, they’re pairing Keytruda with everything from mRNA vaccines (shoutout to the Moderna partnership) to new LAG-3 inhibitors.
The market is starting to realize that 2028 might be a "slope" rather than a "cliff." Management recently dropped a massive "confidence bomb" by projecting that their next-gen pipeline could hit $70 billion in sales by the mid-2030s. That is a bold number. It’s significantly higher than what analysts were expecting just a year ago.
The Gardasil Hiccup in China
If you’re wondering why the merck & co inc share price hasn't rocketed even higher, look at China. Gardasil sales, the HPV vaccine that usually prints money, took a massive 40% hit recently.
- Economic slowdown in China is killing demand.
- Local competition is getting more aggressive.
- Inventory levels were basically a mess.
It’s a localized headache, but for a global giant, "localized" still means billions of dollars. CEO Rob Davis has been pretty blunt about it: 2026 is going to be a "recovery year" for the vaccine business in Asia. It’s not a permanent break, but it’s definitely a bruise on the balance sheet.
Is the Current Valuation a Steal?
Let's talk numbers without sounding like a textbook. Right now, Merck is trading at roughly 14 times forward earnings. Compare that to the broader pharma industry, which often sits closer to 20x.
Some analysts, like those over at Simply Wall St, argue the stock is actually undervalued by nearly 45%. They look at the discounted cash flow (DCF) and see a "fair value" closer to $200. I’m not saying it’s going to hit $200 by next Tuesday, but the gap between the current price and the intrinsic value of their pipeline is hard to ignore.
Winrevair: The New Secret Weapon
While everyone watches the cancer drugs, Winrevair is the one quietly changing the game. It’s a treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).
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This isn't just another "me too" drug. It’s a first-in-class therapy that actually addresses the underlying cause of the disease rather than just the symptoms. Uptake has been faster than a lot of people predicted. It’s the kind of high-margin specialty drug that helps investors sleep better when the Keytruda patents eventually expire.
Dividends and the "Safety First" Crowd
If you’re here for the yield, you’re in good company. Merck just paid out its Q1 2026 dividend of $0.85 per share on January 8th. The current yield is sitting around 3.06% to 3.12%.
- Consistency: They’ve been paying dividends since the 70s.
- Growth: They’ve been raising that payout steadily.
- Cash Flow: Even with big R&D spending, they’re pulling in $13 billion-plus in free cash flow.
It’s a "bond-substitute" for many, but with the added upside of a biotech pipeline. If the stock price stays flat, you’re still getting paid to wait. If the pipeline hits, the dividend is just the cherry on top.
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What to Watch Next
If you’re holding or thinking about buying, don't just stare at the ticker. Watch the upcoming clinical trials for their oral GLP-1 (the weight loss space is crowded, but Merck has a different angle) and the progress of their TUSA acquisitions.
The merck & co inc share price is currently caught in a tug-of-war between the "China-is-slowing" bears and the "pipeline-is-huge" bulls. Most of the bad news—the Gardasil slump and the 2028 patent fears—seems to be priced in at $108. The surprises from here are more likely to be to the upside.
Your Action Plan
Keep an eye on the next earnings report for any signs of the China vaccine market stabilizing. If Gardasil sales start to bottom out, that might be the signal the market needs to re-rate the stock higher.
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Don't ignore the macro environment either. As interest rates settle, high-yielding, stable companies like Merck often become the "safety net" for portfolios that got too heavy in tech. Basically, it’s a defensive play with an offensive pipeline.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
- Check your exposure: Ensure pharma doesn't exceed 10-15% of your total holdings to manage sector-specific risk.
- Monitor the "Sub-Q" Keytruda trials: Any delay in the subcutaneous formulation's rollout is a red flag for the 2028 transition.
- Verify the ex-dividend dates: If you're chasing the 3% yield, make sure you buy at least two business days before the next record date in March.