You’ve lived in the Bluff City long enough to know the deal. One day you're walking down Beale Street in a light hoodie, and the next, you're scraping a quarter-inch of sleet off your windshield with a credit card because you can't find the real scraper. Memphis weather is basically a mood ring.
Looking at the memphis weather 21 day forecast, we’re staring down a classic Mid-South transition. Honestly, January in Memphis isn't just "cold." It’s a messy mix of humidity, sudden arctic drops, and that weird Southern phenomenon where the air feels "heavy" even when it's 30 degrees.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we are sitting in a pocket of "partly sunny" reality with a current temperature of 50°F. It feels more like 45°F though, thanks to a northwest wind clipping along at 14 mph. If you’re heading out to Overton Park today, keep the jacket handy.
The immediate 10-day breakdown: Buckle up
The first half of our 21-day window is a bit of a rollercoaster. We aren't seeing a massive blizzard—not yet—but the temperatures are doing that thing where they can't decide if they want to be winter or early spring.
- Wednesday, Jan 14: High of 51°F, low of 27°F. Sunny, but there’s a 35% chance of rain during the day.
- Thursday, Jan 15: It drops. Hard. High of 39°F and a low of 26°F. Watch for a tiny 10% chance of snow overnight.
- Sunday, Jan 18: This looks like the coldest afternoon of the bunch, with a high of only 32°F. That’s a "stay inside and eat Central BBQ" kind of day.
By the time we hit next week, the script flips. On Friday, January 23, we are looking at a high of 62°F. That is a 30-degree swing in less than a week. This is why everyone in Memphis has sinus issues. It's the "yo-yo" effect.
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Why the 21-day window matters for your pipes
Most people check the forecast to see if they need an umbrella. In Memphis, you check the memphis weather 21 day forecast to see if you need to drip your faucets.
We have several nights coming up where the lows are hitting 21°F or 22°F (specifically Jan 18 through Jan 20). When the mercury stays below freezing for more than 24 hours, MLGW starts getting nervous, and you should too.
What the "Long-Range" experts are seeing
If we look beyond the immediate 10-day data and into the full 21-day outlook—taking us into early February—historical patterns and long-range models suggest a "warmer than normal" February. But "warmer" is a relative term.
According to the Farmers' Almanac and climatology data from the Memphis International Airport (KMEM), late January often brings "showers north, rain south." We typically see about 10 days of rain in January total.
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The real danger in the 21-day window isn't the snow. It’s the ice. Memphis sits right in that "choo-choo train" path where moisture from the Gulf hits cold air from the Plains. If that high of 62°F on Jan 23 crashes into another arctic front by the end of the month, we get that "grey glaze" on the trees.
Rain vs. Everything Else
We’ve got a big rain event signaled for Saturday, January 24. The humidity is expected to spike to 93%, and there’s a 65% chance of rain that night.
Is it going to turn to ice? Probably not that night, since the low is 38°F. But it’s Memphis. Keep your eyes on the "feels like" temperature.
Practical survival steps for the next 3 weeks
Don't just look at the numbers; prepare for the swing.
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First, check your tire pressure. These 30-degree temperature drops will make your "low pressure" light pop on faster than a pothole on I-240.
Second, manage your layers. If you're out on Jan 23 when it’s 62 degrees, don't leave your heavy coat at home. By the time the sun goes down, it’s dropping back into the 30s or 40s.
Finally, don't trust the "sunny" icons too much. On Saturday, Jan 17, it’s listed as "cloudy" with a high of 38°F, but the wind is coming from the west at 13 mph. That wind chill will make it feel like the mid-20s.
Basically, the next 21 days are a test of your patience and your closet's versatility. Stay warm, keep an eye on those overnight lows for your pipes, and maybe keep an extra blanket in the trunk. You never know when a 10% chance of snow turns into a Memphis miracle (or a traffic nightmare).
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the Wednesday, Jan 21 transition. That’s when we move from the freezing daytime highs back into the 40s and 50s. If you’re planning any outdoor work or travel, that's your window of opportunity before the rain moves back in for the weekend.