March Madness usually produces some pretty wild scripts, but honestly, the Memphis vs Colorado State matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament was one of those games that just felt different from the jump. You had Memphis, sitting pretty as a No. 5 seed with a shiny 29-5 record, coming off an American Athletic Conference (AAC) title. Then you had Colorado State, a No. 12 seed that many pundits thought was overseeded or just lucky to be there.
Everyone expected Penny Hardaway’s squad to stroll through the first round at Climate Pledge Arena.
It didn't happen.
The Rams pulled off a 78-70 stunner that left the Tigers wondering what went wrong with a season that looked so promising. If you’re looking at the history of these two programs, you’ll see they don't cross paths often. But when they do, specifically in basketball, the stakes have been massive. Before this 2025 clash, they met in the 2021 NIT semifinals where Memphis actually dominated with a 90-67 win. It’s funny how the roles flipped so aggressively in just a few years.
The 12-Over-5 Myth in Memphis vs Colorado State
Most people think a 12-seed beating a 5-seed is a massive fluke. In the case of Memphis vs Colorado State, the betting lines actually told a different story. Despite the seeding, the Rams were actually favored by 2.5 points in some spots. Why? Because Memphis was walking into Seattle severely short-handed.
Missing Tyrese Hunter was the killer. He was their leader, their "vocal engine," and their best perimeter defender. When you take the head off the snake, the rest of the body tends to wiggle aimlessly. Baraka Okojie tried to fill those shoes, and he actually started the second half with a beautiful steal and layup, but you can’t replace 15 points and lockdown defense overnight.
Colorado State’s Kyan Evans basically turned into a flamethrower. The kid went 6-of-9 from three-point range. He finished with 23 points, a career-high. Every time Memphis tried to claw back—and they did, they actually led 36-31 at halftime—Evans or Jalen Lake would just sink a soul-crushing triple from the wing.
Breaking Down the Paint Battle
Despite the loss, Memphis actually won the "physicality" battle. They outscored the Rams 32-22 in the paint. Dain Dainja was a literal monster, putting up 22 points and 12 rebounds. He looked like a man playing against boys for most of the first half.
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But basketball is a game of math.
Memphis shot a miserable 26.1% from beyond the arc. You can’t win in modern college hoops if you’re trading two-point layups for three-point daggers. Colorado State didn't have the size to stop Dainja, but they had the shooters to make his points irrelevant.
- Memphis Turnovers: 16 (Leading to 14 CSU points)
- CSU Three-Pointers: 11 makes on 30 attempts
- Free Throws: CSU went 19-of-25, sealing the game late
Honestly, the second half was a disaster for the Tigers. They got outscored 47-34. That’s a 13-point swing in twenty minutes. PJ Haggerty, who broke the AAC single-season scoring record during this game, just couldn't find his rhythm. He finished with 18 points, but it took him 23 shots to get there. That’s not efficiency; that’s desperation.
Football History: A Different Story
It's weird to think about, but these schools have a football history too. It’s tiny. Like, microscopic.
They’ve played exactly once on the gridiron. Back in 1974, Memphis (then Memphis State) squeaked out a 20-18 win. That’s it. That is the entire football history. While Colorado State has a long-standing, blood-soaked rivalry with the Colorado Buffaloes (the Rocky Mountain Showdown), and Memphis has their "Battle for the Bones" with UAB, these two are essentially strangers in helmets.
What This Means for the Future
The 2025 game shifted the narrative for both programs. For Niko Medved and Colorado State, it proved the Mountain West wasn't a "one-bid" or "weak" conference. It gave them their first tournament win since 2013. For Memphis, it added fuel to the fire for critics of Penny Hardaway.
You've got a coach who recruits at a top-five level but keeps hitting roadblocks in the first weekend of the Big Dance.
If you're following the Memphis vs Colorado State dynamic, keep an eye on the transfer portal. These two programs often compete for the same type of "undervalued" mid-major talent. The Rams’ success in 2025 makes them a much more attractive destination for guards who want to play in an open, three-point-heavy system.
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Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If these two meet again in the 2026 season or beyond, don't just look at the seed.
Check the injury report first. The loss of Tyrese Hunter changed the entire geometry of the court for Memphis. If the Tigers are healthy, they are a Final Four caliber team. If they are missing their primary ball-handler, they are a "fade" candidate against any team with a disciplined backcourt.
Also, watch the three-point volume. Colorado State lives and dies by the jump shot. In their 2025 win, they took 30 threes. In their subsequent loss to Maryland, they only managed to get off 18. If you can run them off the line, you win. If you let Kyan Evans get comfortable, you're going home early.
Next time you see this matchup on a bracket, remember: size in the paint (Dainja) looks good on highlights, but guard play (Evans/Clifford) wins tournament games. Keep your eyes on the 2026 recruitment cycles for both schools, as Memphis is looking to overhaul their bench depth to avoid another "short-handed" exit. CSU is trying to maintain that 11-game winning streak momentum into the next season's non-conference schedule.