Mel Kiper Jr. has been doing this since before most current NFL players were born. Seriously. He’s the guy who basically invented the draft industry, and when he talks, the league listens—even if they pretend they don't. Right now, everyone is buzzing because he just flipped the script on his mel kiper qb rankings for the 2026 class.
If you haven’t been watching Indiana football, you’re missing out. Fernando Mendoza is the name on everyone’s lips. Kiper just moved him to the number one spot, and honestly, it’s hard to argue with a Heisman Trophy winner who’s got his team playing for a national title.
The Fernando Mendoza Takeover
Mendoza is a wild story. He was at Cal, didn't do much, then transferred to Indiana and turned into Joe Burrow 2.0. Kiper is obsessed with his "A-plus" mental makeup. He’s 22, he’ll be 23 by the time he hits an NFL training camp, and that maturity is exactly what Kiper loves.
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In the latest update, Mendoza jumped over Oregon’s Dante Moore. Why? Because Mendoza did it when it mattered most. While Moore struggled with turnovers in the College Football Playoff semifinals, Mendoza was surgically dismantling defenses. He’s got 41 touchdowns this year. He’s completing 73% of his passes. Those aren't just college numbers; those are "I'm ready for the Raiders at pick number one" numbers.
It's about growth. Mendoza cut his sacks in half from 2024 to 2025. That tells scouts he’s processing the game faster. He isn't a "dual threat" in the way we think of Lamar Jackson, but he’s mobile enough to move the chains. Kiper thinks he’s the safest bet in the draft.
Why Dante Moore Slipped (But Stayed High)
Dante Moore is still Kiper's QB2, and for good reason. The kid resurrected his career at Oregon after that messy freshman year at UCLA. He threw for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns this season. He’s got the arm talent that makes GMs drool.
But those interceptions.
Kiper is a stickler for "ball security," and Moore’s performance against Indiana in the Rose Bowl was a red flag. He looked rattled. Despite that, Kiper still has him as a top-five overall prospect on his Big Board. He thinks Moore has the highest ceiling in the class, even if Mendoza has the higher floor.
The Rest of the Top 10 Shakedown
The middle of the mel kiper qb rankings is where things get really interesting. You've got guys like Ty Simpson at Alabama who finally got his shot and looked like a pro. He’s sitting at QB3. Then there’s Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss. Talk about a rise—the guy came from Division II! Kiper has him at QB4 because of that "it" factor he showed leading the Rebels to the playoffs.
Here is how the top ten looks currently in Kiper’s eyes:
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) - The Heisman winner and new king of the board.
- Dante Moore (Oregon) - High ceiling, but needs to fix the turnover bug.
- Ty Simpson (Alabama) - The blue-blood prospect who lived up to the hype.
- Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) - The D-II transfer who became a superstar.
- Drew Allar (Penn State) - Rising again (up from No. 8) despite some injury concerns.
- Carson Beck (Miami) - The six-year veteran who provides stability.
- John Mateer (Oklahoma) - A transfer who battled through hand injuries to make the CFP.
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) - A bit of a faller after a disappointing season, but the talent is there.
- Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) - The gritty winner who finished second in Heisman voting.
- Taylen Green (Arkansas) - The raw, dual-threat prospect with massive upside.
What History Tells Us About These Rankings
Look, Kiper isn't a psychic. Last year, in the 2025 draft, he was banging the drum for Shedeur Sanders as QB1. Most of us remember how that ended—Sanders slid all the way to the 5th round to the Cleveland Browns. Kiper was furious on the broadcast.
But then you look at 2024. He was dead-on with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. He’s usually right about the elite guys. When there’s a consensus "superstar," Kiper is on it. When the class is murky, like this 2026 group, that’s when his rankings get polarizing.
The big debate right now is whether a guy like John Mateer or Garrett Nussmeier will actually go before Mendoza. Some scouts think Mendoza’s lack of a "cannon" arm will hurt him in the pre-draft process. Kiper disagrees. He thinks "ball placement" is the most underrated trait in the NFL.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans
If you're trying to stay ahead of the curve on the 2026 draft, here is what you need to do:
- Watch the National Championship. Mendoza vs. Miami's defense (and Carson Beck) is the ultimate litmus test. If Mendoza wins it all, his status as QB1 is locked in.
- Ignore the "Arm Talent" Obsession. NFL teams are moving back toward guys who can process quickly. Don't let people tell you Mendoza is "too weak" for the pros.
- Keep an eye on the declarations. John Mateer and Dante Moore still have eligibility. If they go back to school, this whole list gets nuked.
- Watch the Senior Bowl. This is where Kiper gets his final "feel" for the middle-tier guys like Pavia and Green.
The draft is a three-month-long job interview. Kiper’s board is the syllabus. You don't have to agree with everything he says, but you're definitely going to be talking about it. The Mendoza era in Indiana might just end with him wearing a Raiders jersey, and if that happens, Mel will be the first one to say "I told you so."
Next Steps:
- Compare these rankings against the current Vegas odds for the #1 overall pick to see where the betting value lies.
- Track the official NFL Combine invite list which will be released next month to see which of Kiper's "under-the-radar" picks made the cut.