It is mid-January, and college basketball is officially in that weird, chaotic "moving day" phase. If you haven't been paying attention to the MBB AP Top 25, you've missed a complete overhaul of what we thought we knew back in November. Forget the preseason hype. The poll that dropped on January 12, 2026, has turned the hierarchy on its head, and honestly, it’s about time.
Arizona is sitting at the top. 17-0. They aren't just winning; they’re essentially "bully-balling" the rest of the country into submission. Tommy Lloyd has built a roster that looks like a collection of semi-pro gladiators. When you have a 7-foot-2 human like Motiejus Krivas anchoring the middle and a freshman class that Auburn’s Steven Pearl literally described as "grown-ass men," you’re going to stay at No. 1 for a while.
But the real story isn't just at the top. It’s the sheer randomness happening in the middle of the pack.
The MBB AP Top 25 Shakeup: Unbeatens and New Blood
If you told me in October that Nebraska and Vanderbilt would both be in the top 10 by mid-January, I probably would’ve laughed. Yet, here we are. Nebraska (16-0) has clawed its way to No. 8, matching a program high they haven’t seen since the Lyndon B. Johnson administration. They are fundamentally sound, boringly efficient, and totally terrifying for the rest of the Big Ten.
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Then there’s Vanderbilt. Jerry Stackhouse’s former program has undergone a transformation that has them at 16-0 and No. 10 in the country. They haven't been this high since 2011. It’s weird. It’s great. It’s exactly why the MBB AP Top 25 exists—to give us something to argue about when the traditional blue bloods start tripping over themselves.
Who's Actually Moving?
The movement in the latest poll was aggressive. Take a look at the shifts that actually matter:
- Arizona (No. 1): Locked in. They took 60 of 61 first-place votes. They are the standard.
- Iowa State (No. 2): They jumped up a spot because Michigan finally blinked. The Cyclones are 16-0 and playing defense that feels like a felony.
- UConn (No. 3): Dan Hurley’s group is 17-1. They’re just... there. Always lurking. Waiting for March.
- Michigan (No. 4): They fell two spots after Wisconsin finally figured out how to slow them down.
- Florida (No. 19): Talk about a rollercoaster. They were preseason No. 3, fell out of the rankings entirely, and now they’re back. Todd Golden’s group is the "I can fix him" of college basketball teams.
Why the Analytics Hate the Poll (And Vice Versa)
There is a massive disconnect right now between the human voters and the "math guys." If you look at KenPom or the NET rankings, they still love Michigan. They think Michigan is the best team in the country based on efficiency. But the MBB AP Top 25 voters—the humans who actually watch the games—see Arizona's physicality and Nebraska's win streak and say, "Nope, the eye test wins."
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It’s a classic conflict. Does a loss to an unranked Wisconsin team matter more than a season-long data set? The AP voters say yes. The computers say no.
The Mid-Major Stealth Attacks
We need to talk about Utah State (No. 23) and Seton Hall (No. 25). Seton Hall's return to the rankings is a massive win for the Big East, especially considering they’ve been out of the mix for about four years. They’ve got a massive game coming up against UConn that will probably decide if they stay ranked or fall back into the "others receiving votes" abyss.
And BYU. Don’t sleep on BYU at No. 11. They have AJ Dybantsa, who is basically a walking bucket (23.1 points per game). He’s a projected lottery pick for a reason. Watching him navigate the Big 12 is like watching a professional play against high schoolers some nights.
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The Reality of the "Blue Blood" Struggle
Kansas is currently a mess. Well, a mess by Bill Self standards. They’re sitting at 12-5 and actually fell out of the MBB AP Top 25 this week, only receiving 60 votes in the "others" category. It’s jarring. Between losses to North Carolina, Duke, and UConn, the Jayhawks are searching for an identity that isn't just "we have a nice jersey."
North Carolina (No. 14) and Duke (No. 6) are holding steady, but they don't feel invincible. Duke’s loss to West Virginia earlier in the season proved that if you can match their talent with pure grit, they’ll fold.
What to Watch This Weekend
If you’re trying to track how the MBB AP Top 25 will look next Monday, Saturday is your Super Bowl.
Arizona goes to UCF. Usually, that’s a cakewalk, but UCF has been playing "spoiler" lately. If the Wildcats slip, the No. 1 spot is wide open for Iowa State. Also, watch the Vanderbilt vs. Florida game. It’s the ultimate "are you for real?" test for the Commodores. If they beat a surging Gators team, they might actually be a Final Four threat.
Actionable Strategy for Following the Polls
- Ignore the "Preseason" stats now: We are deep enough into conference play that a team's record against Quad 1 opponents is the only thing that matters.
- Watch the NET movement on Sundays: The AP voters are heavily influenced by how the NET rankings shift the day before the poll comes out.
- Check the "Others Receiving Votes" list: That’s where the value is. Teams like Saint Louis and Miami (Ohio) are right on the cusp. If they win their Friday/Saturday games, they’ll be the new names you see on Monday morning.
The landscape is shifting. Arizona is the king for now, but in this season of unbeatens like Nebraska and Vanderbilt, the throne is a lot more crowded than usual. Keep an eye on the Saturday slate—it’s going to get messy.