Maui's weather isn't just one thing. Honestly, if you're looking at a generic "Maui" forecast on your phone, you're probably getting about 10% of the actual story.
Right now, as of Sunday, January 18, 2026, the island is sitting in a weirdly comfortable pocket. It’s 66°F out there with a "feels like" of 77°F because the humidity is hanging around 57%. But if you’re in Kapalua, you might be seeing clouds, while someone in Kihei is getting baked in the sun. That’s just how this place works.
Basically, the maui weather 14 day forecast is a game of two halves. We’ve got a high-pressure system moving north of us right now, which is keeping things dry-ish and bringing in those classic trade winds. But there’s a cold front lurking. It’s expected to hit the island chain around Wednesday or Thursday, and that’s when things get soggy.
The 14-Day Breakdown: What’s Actually Happening?
Most people see a rain icon and cancel their luau. Don't do that. In Hawaii, "rain" usually means a ten-minute sprinkle followed by a rainbow.
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- Sunday & Monday (Jan 18-19): We're looking at highs of 67°F to 68°F. It’s mostly sunny, especially on the South Side. Wind is light, coming from the south/southeast at about 5 mph. Perfect beach weather.
- Tuesday (Jan 20): Clouds start to stack up. Highs around 69°F. The humidity starts to climb toward 69%, which is the atmosphere’s way of saying "get ready."
- Wednesday & Thursday (Jan 21-22): This is the wet window. A cold front is moving in. We’re expecting light rain and overcast skies. Temperatures will actually dip—Thursday’s high is only 66°F. If you’re Upcountry, it’s gonna be chilly.
- The Weekend Outlook (Jan 24-25): We bounce back. Saturday looks partly sunny with a high of 69°F. Sunday might see some light rain again, but nothing that should ruin a day of exploring.
- Next Week (Jan 26-30): The sun returns in force. By Tuesday, Jan 27, it’s full-on sunny with a high of 72°F and 0% chance of rain.
The Microclimate Trick
You’ve probably heard people talk about the "wet side" and the "dry side." They aren't kidding. If the maui weather 14 day forecast says it’s raining, it’s almost certainly raining in Hana or the West Maui Mountains.
South Maui (Kihei/Wailea) is a desert. It gets maybe 10 inches of rain a year. If you’re staying there and see clouds, just wait twenty minutes. Or drive ten miles north. The island’s topography—big volcanoes like Haleakalā—literally blocks the clouds. This creates "rain shadows."
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Honestly, the best advice for the next 14 days? Follow the sun. If the North Shore is getting hammered by the incoming cold front on Wednesday, head to South Maui. The "Makena Cloud" might be hanging out, but you’ll likely find a pocket of blue.
Wind and Waves: The Real Danger
The weather isn't just about what’s falling from the sky. The wind is shifting. Right now, we’ve got south winds, but they’ll veer northeast by the end of the week.
There’s also a massive northwest swell hitting right now. We’re talking "dangerous sizes" on the North Shore. If you’re looking at the maui weather 14 day forecast to plan a snorkel trip, stick to the South Shore or protected spots like Ka'anapali for the next few days. The North Shore is currently under a High Surf Advisory, and it's not for beginners.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Trip
Don't let the "light rain" forecast for Wednesday and Thursday bum you out. Here is how to actually handle the next two weeks on Maui:
- Book your snorkel tours for Monday or Tuesday. The winds are lightest then (around 4-5 mph), and visibility will be best before the cold front stirs up the water.
- Pack a light jacket. No, seriously. With highs in the mid-60s on Thursday and lows hitting 57°F, you will be cold, especially if you go to the Haleakalā summit where it's significantly frostier.
- Monitor the North Shore swell. If you aren't a pro surfer, stay out of the water on the north side through Tuesday. Watch from the safety of the beach at Ho'okipa instead.
- Plan your "Hana Highway" day for the second week. The forecast for Jan 26-28 is much drier and sunnier, which makes those narrow, winding roads a lot less stressful than driving them in a downpour.
The weather here changes by the mile and the minute. A 14-day forecast is a guide, not a rulebook. Keep your plans flexible, watch the clouds, and you'll find the sun.