If you’d checked the polls back in late 2024, you probably would’ve bet the house on a Conservative landslide. It felt inevitable. Pierre Poilievre was everywhere, hammering away at "Axe the Tax" and capturing a mood of deep frustration. But then, politics happened. Specifically, a wild series of events that basically rewrote the script for Canada’s future.
On April 28, 2025, the Liberal Party didn't just survive; they pulled off a stunner. Mark Carney, the former central banker who many dismissed as "too elite" for the average voter, led the Liberals to their fourth consecutive term.
He didn't just win; he reshaped the House of Commons.
The Night the Map Turned Red (Again)
It was a nail-biter. Honestly, for the first few hours of election night, the vibe was tense. The Liberals ended up with 169 seats. If you’re keeping score at home, that is just shy of the 172 needed for a "true" majority in the newly expanded 343-seat House.
The Conservatives, led by Poilievre, actually had a massive night too in terms of raw numbers. They picked up 144 seats and snagged about 41% of the popular vote. In many ways, it was a two-horse race that squeezed everyone else out. The NDP? They got hammered, dropping to just 7 seats and losing official party status.
Why did this happen?
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Basically, the "Carney Factor" met the "Trump Factor." When U.S. President Donald Trump started talking about trade wars and—bizarrely—threats of annexation, Canadians got spooked. They wanted a steady hand. Carney, with his resume as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, suddenly didn't look like an "elite outsider" anymore. He looked like the adult in the room.
Who is Mark Carney, anyway?
For those who haven't followed his career, Carney is a bit of a statistical anomaly in politics. He was sworn in as Canada's 24th Prime Minister on March 14, 2025, after Justin Trudeau stepped down following months of sagging approval ratings.
- The Background: Born in the Northwest Territories, raised in Edmonton.
- The Education: Harvard and Oxford (PhD in Economics).
- The Resume: Former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.
- The Jump: He took over the Liberal leadership on March 9, 2025, winning over 85% of the party's vote.
He called a snap election almost immediately. It was a gamble. It worked.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2025 Result
There’s this narrative that Poilievre "blew it." That’s a bit of an oversimplification. Honestly, Poilievre grew the Conservative base significantly. He tapped into the housing crisis and the cost-of-living struggles that are still very real for millions of us.
But Carney did something clever. He neutralized the Conservatives' biggest weapon by axing the carbon tax himself early in his short stint as interim PM. He stole the "change" narrative.
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By the time the actual election rolled around, the choice wasn't "Trudeau vs. Poilievre" anymore. It was "Carney’s Economic Stability vs. Poilievre’s Populism."
The 2026 Reality: A Minority That Feels Like a Majority
We’re now into 2026, and the dust is still settling. While the Liberals technically have a minority, they’ve been playing a very aggressive game of "floor-crossing."
Since the election, two former Conservative MPs—Michael Ma and Chris d’Entremont—have jumped ship to join the Liberals. This has brought Carney within a hair’s breadth of a majority.
- Liberal Seats: 171 (including recent floor-crossers)
- Conservative Seats: 142
- Bloc Québécois: 22
- NDP: 7
- Green: 1
It’s a fragile peace. The government survived a massive budget vote in November 2025 only because a few opposition members abstained or voted with them.
What this means for your wallet
Carney’s "One Canadian Economy Act" has been the centerpiece of his first year. It’s a bit of a mix of old-school Liberal social spending and very disciplined fiscal management. He’s been obsessed with building a "sovereignty-first" economy to buffer against whatever comes out of Washington.
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If you're looking for actionable takeaways from how this election changed things:
- Trade focus: Expect more diversification. Carney is currently in China (as of January 2026) trying to open up energy and agri-food markets.
- Housing: The focus has shifted from "subsidies" to "supply-side" fixes, basically trying to force cities to build faster.
- Stability: The "Trump-proofing" of the Canadian economy is the top priority.
Next Steps for Following Canadian Politics
If you're trying to stay ahead of what’s coming next, keep your eyes on the Conservative Party Review in Calgary at the end of January 2026. Poilievre is facing a leadership review. If he stays, the 2026-2027 sessions will be a total war. If he goes, the Conservatives will be in the wilderness for a while.
Also, watch the NDP leadership race in March. With only 7 seats, they are fighting for their life. Whether they pick a radical like Avi Lewis or a pragmatist like Heather McPherson will determine if the "progressive" side of Canadian politics stays split or starts to consolidate under Carney.
Keep a close watch on the CUSMA (trade agreement) review later this year. That is where Carney’s "central banker" skills will be put to the ultimate test.