Honestly, looking at a map of Texas wildfires during the dormant season feels a bit like watching a slow-motion fuse. People usually associate "fire season" with the blistering heat of August, but right now, in mid-January 2026, the real threat is hiding in the "freeze-cured" yellow grass across the Rolling Plains and the Hill Country.
It’s bone-dry out there.
If you’re checking the trackers today, you’ll see the Texas A&M Forest Service is currently at Preparedness Level 2. That doesn't sound like a "code red," but for the firefighters on the ground, it means they are leaning forward. A dry cold front is sweeping through today, Friday the 16th, and it’s bringing those nasty 20-25 mph north winds that can turn a cigarette butt or a dragging trailer chain into a thousand-acre problem in about twenty minutes.
Why the Current Map Looks "Quiet" (But Isn't)
The thing about a map of Texas wildfires is that it only shows what has already happened. As of this morning, the Madley Fire over in Sabine County is sitting at about 674 acres and is 95% contained. It’s basically a non-issue now. But the map doesn't show you the "potential" fire that hasn't started yet.
Texas has a weird double-peak fire season. Most people don't realize that February through April is often more dangerous than July. Why? Because the grass is dead. It’s dormant. It doesn’t hold moisture like green summer grass does. When a "blue norther" blows in, the humidity drops to 15%, the wind gusts hit 40 mph, and the landscape basically becomes a giant tinderbox.
The Big Players in the 2026 Outlook
According to the latest National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) outlook, we are dealing with a weak La Niña. For Texas, that’s usually bad news. La Niña typically means a warmer, drier winter for the southern tier of the U.S.
- The Panhandle: High grass loading from last year’s rains is now totally dry.
- Central Texas: The "Wildland-Urban Interface" (basically where the Austin suburbs meet the cedar breaks) is always at risk.
- East Texas: They’re seeing "low to moderate initial attack potential" because of the dry post-frontal air.
Don't Rely on Just One Tracker
You've probably noticed that different maps show different things. Some show "hotspots" from satellites, which might just be a farmer burning a brush pile (hopefully with a permit). Others only show fires where the state was called in for help.
💡 You might also like: Tulsa Public Schools Audit: What Really Happened Behind the Scenes
If you want the truth, you have to look at the Texas Wildfire Viewer. It’s the official tool from the Forest Service. It separates the "active" fires from the "contained" ones. If an icon is red, it’s still running. If it’s black, they’ve got a line around it.
There is also the TxWRAP (Texas Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal). This isn't for tracking active flames; it’s for seeing if your house is in a "red zone." They recently updated it with 10-meter resolution data. That is incredibly detailed. You can basically see the risk level for your specific street.
The "Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak" Risk
We haven't seen a massive outbreak yet this year, but the conditions for a Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak (SPWO) are starting to align. This is a specific weather pattern: a deep low-pressure system, high winds, and bone-dry air coming off the Rockies.
📖 Related: How to Stream Fox 25 News Boston Live Without a Cable Bill
Think back to the Smokehouse Creek Fire in 2024. That burned over a million acres and became the largest in state history. It happened in late February.
We are entering that window right now. Governor Greg Abbott actually renewed the disaster proclamation for fire weather conditions earlier this month, covering a huge list of counties from Andrews to Bexar. That’s not just paperwork; it allows the state to pre-position bulldozers and "Single Engine Air Tankers" (SEATs) before the smoke even starts.
How to Actually Use This Information
Kinda scary, right? But you're not helpless.
If you live in a high-risk area—especially along the I-35 corridor or out west—don't just stare at the map of Texas wildfires and hope for the best.
Watch the wind, not the temperature. In January, a 50-degree day with a 30 mph north wind is much more dangerous than a 100-degree day with no wind. If you see "Red Flag Warnings" on your weather app, that is your signal to stop any outdoor work that could cause a spark. No welding, no cedar clearing, and definitely no "controlled" burns.
Clean your gutters. Most homes that burn in wildfires aren't hit by a wall of flame. They’re ignited by "embers" or fire brands that fly a mile ahead of the main fire and land in a pile of dry leaves on your roof. Basically, your gutters act like a fuse for your attic.
Get the right app. The Frontline Wildfire Defense app is decent for alerts, but for the most "official" data, bookmark the Texas A&M Forest Service incident viewer.
👉 See also: Is Trump Trying to Ban Birth Control? What Most People Get Wrong
Immediate Action Steps
- Check the Burn Ban Map: Over 80 counties currently have active burn bans. If yours is one of them, "I didn't know" won't stop a fine or a felony charge if a fire gets out.
- Set Up "Ready, Set, Go": Have your "Go-Kit" (papers, meds, pet supplies) by the door. If the map shows a fire moving your way, don't wait for the sheriff to knock. Just leave.
- Monitor the NWS "Fire Weather" Page: The National Weather Service in Norman and Amarillo are the best for Panhandle updates, while the Austin/San Antonio office covers the Hill Country.
The 2026 dormant season is just getting started. The map looks mostly green and white today, but with the dry air pushing in this weekend, that could change by Monday. Stay frosty, keep your gas tank full, and keep an eye on those north winds.