The rain is probably lashing down on the M62 right now. It's Saturday, January 17, 2026, and if you’re anywhere near Manchester, you know exactly what’s happening. Old Trafford is currently the center of the universe. Michael Carrick, who was basically just handed the keys to the United kingdom after Ruben Amorim was sacked earlier this month, is standing in the technical area for his first real test. And what a test it is.
Manchester City vs United isn't just another game on the calendar. It’s a 145-year-old argument that never actually ends.
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Most people think they know this rivalry. They think it’s just the "noisy neighbors" finally getting their way or United clinging to the ghost of Sir Alex Ferguson. Honestly, it’s way messier than that. Did you know that back in the early 1900s, fans would literally go to see United one week and City the next? They just wanted to see good football. That kind of local camaraderie feels like an alien concept today when you see the vitriol on social media.
The Carrick Gamble and the 198th Derby
Today’s match marks the 198th time these two have locked horns in a competitive setting. The vibes at United are... well, they're complicated. Amorim’s departure left a bit of a power vacuum, and Carrick has been tasked with steering a ship that’s been taking on water for a while. United sits 7th. They've won only once in their last five. They just got dumped out of the FA Cup by Brighton.
On the other side, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City is doing Manchester City things. They’re 2nd, chasing an Arsenal side that seems intent on ruining everyone’s fun. City is coming off a 10-1 (yes, ten) demolition of Exeter City and a clinical 2-0 win over Newcastle. They also just signed Antoine Semenyo, who has already scored twice in two games. It feels a bit like a David vs. Goliath scenario, but in a derby, those labels usually end up in the bin by the fifth minute.
Why Manchester City vs United Still Matters
You’ve got people saying the derby has lost its edge because the gap in quality is too wide. Those people are wrong. The 2024 FA Cup final proved that when United—major underdogs—stunned City 2-1 with goals from the kids, Garnacho and Mainoo. That’s the thing about this fixture. Form is a liar.
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The Statistical Reality
If we look at the raw numbers, United still leads the all-time head-to-head.
- Total Wins for United: 80
- Total Wins for City: 63
- Draws: 55
But that’s a legacy stat. If you only look at the last 15 years, the blue half of the city has been dominant. City has won 21 of the last 40 encounters. They've turned Old Trafford into a bit of a playground recently, winning 12 of their last 28 visits there in the Premier League.
What Most People Get Wrong About the History
There’s this myth that City didn't exist before the 2008 takeover. Tell that to the fans who remember the 5-1 win at Maine Road in 1989. Or the 1974 derby where Denis Law—a United legend playing for City—scored a backheel that helped relegate his former club. He didn’t even celebrate. He looked like he’d just accidentally run over his own dog.
Then there’s the "Homegrown" debate. People love to say City just buys success. While they’ve spent a fortune, look at Phil Foden. He’s a Stockport lad who has been in the system since he was a kid. He’s already scored 8 goals in derbies. He’s closing in on Wayne Rooney’s record of 11. Erling Haaland is also on 9 goals in this fixture despite only being in the league for about three seasons. He’s a freak of nature.
Iconic Moments You Might Have Forgotten
- The 6-1 (2011): The "Why Always Me?" game. This wasn't just a win; it was a cultural shift.
- Rooney’s Bicycle Kick (2011): Probably the most famous goal in Premier League history. Even if it did come off his shin a little bit (don't tell United fans I said that).
- The Glyn Pardoe Injury (1970): A George Best tackle that almost cost Pardoe his leg. The 70s were different, man.
The Tactics: What to Watch For Today
Carrick is likely going to park the bus. It’s what you do when you’re facing a City team that has Rodri and Bernardo Silva pulling the strings. United's lineup today features Senne Lammens in goal and Bryan Mbeumo leading the line. It's a "new look" United, for better or worse.
City is playing their usual 4-3-3. They have Gianluigi Donnarumma in net now, and a backline that includes Abdukodir Khusanov and Nathan Ake. They look balanced. They look terrifying.
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The key battle? Kobbie Mainoo vs. Rodri. The apprentice vs. the master. If Mainoo can’t disrupt City’s rhythm in the middle of the park, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Stretford End.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're watching the game or betting on it, keep these things in mind:
- The First 15 Minutes: City tends to choke teams out early. If United survives the first quarter-hour without conceding, the crowd gets involved and things get weird.
- The "New Manager Bounce": It's a real thing. Carrick knows this club better than anyone. He won't overcomplicate it. Expect United to be more direct than they were under Amorim.
- Watch the Subs: In 2026, depth is everything. City’s bench could likely finish in the top four on its own. If it’s level at 60 minutes, Pep will bring on world-class talent to kill the game.
Final Thoughts on the Rivalry
Manchester City vs United is a reflection of the city itself—constantly evolving, slightly rainy, and fiercely proud. Whether it's the 1st derby or the 198th, the stakes never actually change. It's about who owns the pubs on Monday morning.
To stay ahead of the curve on this rivalry, you should track the "Expected Goals" (xG) trends from the last three meetings. City has consistently outperformed their xG against United, suggesting a level of clinical finishing that United hasn't matched since the 2024 FA Cup win. Also, keep an eye on injury reports specifically regarding Rodri; City's win percentage drops significantly when he isn't starting, making United much more viable as an underdog. For the best tactical breakdowns, follow independent analysts like Tifo Football or Michael Cox, who avoid the sensationalist headlines of mainstream media.