Honestly, trying to predict a Pep Guardiola starting XI is usually like trying to guess the lottery numbers while wearing a blindfold. But today is different. The Man City lineup for today is basically being written by the club’s medical staff rather than the tactical genius himself. As City prepare to head across town to Old Trafford for this January 17, 2026, Manchester Derby, the vibes are... let’s just say "tense."
Michael Carrick is sitting there in the United dugout with a fresh start, and Pep is looking at a bench that’s mostly teenagers. It’s wild. If you’d told me a year ago that City would be heading into a derby with this many defensive holes, I wouldn't have believed it.
The defensive crisis is real
You've probably heard the news by now, but Josko Gvardiol is out for months with that tibial fracture. Ruben Dias? Hamstring. John Stones? Still dealing with that nagging thigh issue. It’s a total disaster at the back.
Basically, the "safe" pairing of Dias and Gvardiol is a memory right now. Instead, we’re looking at youngsters like Max Alleyne and Abdukodir Khusanov. Khusanov has been a bit of a revelation, hasn't he? Pep called him "special" and "coachable," which in Pep-speak means he’s likely to start every game until his legs fall off.
Max Alleyne is the one everyone's talking about, though. The kid was on loan at Watford about five minutes ago, got recalled, and now he’s winning 92% of his duels in the Premier League. Starting a 20-year-old in a Manchester Derby is a massive gamble, but what choice does the boss have? Nathan Ake is the only "senior" center-back left standing, but Pep might actually need him for his experience elsewhere.
Predicted Man City lineup for today
If I had to put money on it—and given Pep's history, this is still a gamble—here is how they likely shape up.
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Gianluigi Donnarumma will almost certainly be back in goal. James Trafford did a job in the FA Cup against Exeter (that 10-1 win was a fever dream, wasn't it?), and he played the Carabao Cup first leg against Newcastle, but for the derby? You go with the big Italian.
The back four is where it gets weird. Matheus Nunes has been filling in at right-back, which is such a Pep move it hurts. In the middle, I'm expecting Abdukodir Khusanov and Max Alleyne. Yes, two youngsters. Nico O'Reilly likely drops back to left-back. He played midfield against Newcastle and was brilliant, but with the injuries, he’s the utility man now.
Midfield is the only place where City look like "City" again. Rodri is back. Seeing him hoist the Ballon d'Or recently just reminds you how much they missed him during his layoff. Alongside him, Bernardo Silva will do his usual "run 15 kilometers and annoy everyone" routine.
Then you've got the new star. Antoine Semenyo. The £64m man from Bournemouth has scored two in two. He’s got that raw power that City sometimes lacks when they're just passing the ball into a coma. Expect him on one wing, with Phil Foden in the middle and maybe Rayan Cherki on the other side.
And, obviously, Erling Haaland up top. He’s been "exhausted" according to some reports, but he’s still Haaland. He’s got 11 goal involvements in derbies already. He doesn't need to be rested; he needs to be fed.
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Why Semenyo changes everything
Sorta feels like Semenyo was the missing piece. Most people thought City didn't need another winger, but he brings a directness that Jeremy Doku sometimes struggles to turn into end product.
Semenyo's debut goal against Exeter was a beauty, but it was his strike against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup that really showed his worth. He’s strong. He doesn't get bullied. In a derby, where things get physical, he’s going to be a nightmare for United’s full-backs.
Key Match Details
- Match: Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Kick-off: 12:30 PM local time
The Carrick factor
We can't ignore that United aren't the same mess they were six months ago. Michael Carrick has them playing a 4-2-3-1 that actually makes sense. They’ll look to counter-attack through the middle, specifically targeting the lack of experience in City’s central defense.
If Rodri isn't at 100%, City could get overrun. It’s weird to say, but for the first time in years, the Man City lineup for today feels vulnerable.
Actionable insights for fans
Keep a close eye on the team sheet exactly one hour before kick-off. If Nathan Ake starts at center-back over Alleyne, it means Pep is prioritizing safety over the "duel-winning" stats.
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Also, watch the movement of Semenyo. He likes to swap sides with Foden. If he starts on the right, he'll be cutting inside to test whatever makeshift left-back United are running out there.
Check the weather too. If it's a typical Manchester downpour, that slick surface at Old Trafford will favor Haaland’s runs behind a young defense, but it could also lead to more slips for City's inexperienced backline.
Don't expect a tactical masterclass today. Expect a scrap.
Monitor the late fitness tests for Rico Lewis. He's been City's Swiss Army knife this season, and if he's fit enough to start, it gives Pep way more flexibility to move O'Reilly back into his natural midfield habitat. Either way, this isn't your standard stroll for the Blues. It's going to be a long 90 minutes.
To prepare for the game, make sure you have your streaming service logged in early, as the high traffic for the 2026 derby season has been causing some lag issues on major platforms. If you're betting, the "Both Teams to Score" market looks juicy given City's defensive injuries and Haaland's inevitable presence on the scoresheet.