Things are moving fast in West Africa. If you’ve been scrolling through international news lately, you’ve probably seen the names Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso lumped together in headlines about coups, Russian mercenaries, or gold mines. But honestly? Most of the coverage misses the point. It’s not just about "instability" as a vague concept. We are watching a fundamental breakup of the old world order in the Sahel.
The map is being redrawn.
For decades, these three landlocked nations were the backbone of French influence in Africa. Now? That influence is basically gone. In its place, we have the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pact that has effectively told the rest of the world to stay out of their business while they try to figure out a path that doesn't involve Paris or Washington. It’s messy. It’s risky. And for the people living in Bamako, Niamey, or Ouagadougou, it’s the most consequential moment since the 1960s.
The Alliance of Sahel States: More Than Just a Military Pact
When Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter in late 2023, it wasn't just a photo op. They were creating a mutual defense pact because they felt abandoned. You have to understand the frustration. For years, thousands of French troops under Operation Barkhane and UN peacekeepers in MINUSMA were on the ground. Despite this massive international presence, the security situation didn't just stay bad—it got worse.
Jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS kept gaining ground.
So, the military juntas—led by Assimi Goïta in Mali, Ibrahim Traoré in Burkina Faso, and Abdourahamane Tchiani in Niger—decided to kick everyone out. They left the G5 Sahel. They left ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States), which was a huge shock to the regional economy. They are essentially trying to build a fortress. It's a "we'll do it ourselves" approach, even if "ourselves" includes a healthy dose of help from the Russian Wagner Group (now rebranded as Africa Corps).
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The "French Exit" and the New Players
France's departure wasn't a polite goodbye. It was a chaotic, bitter divorce. In Niger, the standoff over the French ambassador and the eventual withdrawal of troops felt like the final nail in the coffin for Françafrique. But don't think for a second that a vacuum stays empty for long.
Russia is the obvious substitute, but it's not the only one. Turkey is selling drones—specifically the Bayraktar TB2, which has become a bit of a celebrity in Sahelian military circles. China is looking at the oil and the mines. Even Iran is sniffing around. This isn't just a local skirmish; it's a geopolitical marketplace.
The Reality of Life in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso Today
Statistics are easy to fake, but the ground reality is hard to ignore. Burkina Faso is currently facing some of the worst internal displacement in the world. We're talking about over two million people forced from their homes. In Mali, the fight isn't just against insurgents; it’s a complex three-way war involving the government, jihadists, and Tuareg rebels in the north who feel the central government in Bamako has failed them again.
It’s tough.
But there’s also this weird, palpable sense of pride in the capital cities. You see it on social media and in the streets. There’s a "sovereignty" movement that is incredibly popular among the youth. They’re tired of being a "project" for Western NGOs. They want to control their own gold (Mali is a top producer) and their own uranium (Niger is vital for European nuclear power).
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Why the Gold and Uranium Matter
Gold isn't just jewelry here. It’s the lifeblood of the rebellion and the state. In Mali, artisanal gold mining is huge. Sometimes the government controls it; sometimes the "bad guys" do. It’s how groups fund their operations without needing a bank account.
Niger’s situation is even more pointed. For years, the Orano group (formerly Areva) mined uranium in the desert near Arlit. Nigeriens saw their lights go out in Niamey while their uranium powered lightbulbs in Lyon. That kind of inequality creates a resentment that lasts for generations. When the junta took over, they used this exact narrative to consolidate power. And it worked.
Misconceptions About the Sahelian "Coup Belt"
People call this the "Coup Belt" like it’s a contagious disease. It’s more like a systemic failure of the previous democratic models. These weren't just "power-hungry soldiers" (though some definitely are); these were military officers who saw their comrades dying in the desert without proper boots or ammunition while politicians in the capital got rich off aid money.
Is the military rule better? That’s the big question. Human rights groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented pretty horrific abuses by both the insurgents and the national armies. The "liberation" comes with a heavy price.
The Climate Factor No One Mentions
You can't talk about Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso without talking about the dust. The Sahara is moving south. It’s called desertification, and it’s a slow-motion disaster.
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Farmers and herders are fighting over shrinking patches of green land. This isn't "ancient ethnic hatred." It’s a fight for water. When a young man can’t grow crops because the rain never came, and a recruiter from an extremist group offers him a motorbike and a monthly salary, the choice isn't about ideology. It's about lunch.
What This Means for the Future of West Africa
The exit from ECOWAS is a massive gamble. By leaving the regional bloc, these three countries are walking away from a free-trade zone and a common currency (the CFA Franc, which they also want to ditch). They are betting that they can survive as a landlocked trio.
They’re talking about a common passport.
They’re talking about a common investment bank.
They’re talking about a unified military command.
If it works, it’s a blueprint for a new kind of African regionalism that doesn't rely on Western approval. If it fails, we’re looking at a massive humanitarian crisis that will spill over into coastal countries like Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Togo. Those countries are already nervous. They’re seeing the violence creep toward their northern borders.
Actionable Insights for Following the Region
If you want to actually understand what’s happening in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso without the fluff, you need to look at specific indicators.
- Watch the Drone Strikes: The use of Turkish drones in Burkina Faso and Mali has changed the tactical landscape. It allows the armies to hit targets deep in the bush, but it also increases the risk of civilian casualties that fuel more recruitment for the insurgents.
- Track the Currency: If the AES actually launches its own currency to replace the CFA Franc, it will be a massive financial earthquake. It would signal the end of the last major colonial-era financial structure in Africa.
- Follow Local Journalists: Media freedom is under fire in all three countries, but local outlets and analysts on the ground provide far more nuance than the big international wires. Look for reports that differentiate between the different "flavors" of insurgency—they aren't all the same.
- Monitor the Borders: The real story of the Sahel is told at the border crossings. If trade continues to flow despite the "official" exit from ECOWAS, it means the regional economy is more resilient than the politicians think.
The Sahel is no longer a "distanced problem." It's a laboratory for a new kind of geopolitics where the old rules simply don't apply. The transition from French dependency to whatever comes next—be it Russian-backed military rule or a truly independent regional bloc—is the most important story in Africa right now. It is a raw, unpolished attempt at sovereignty, and while the human cost is high, the momentum seems irreversible.
Keep an eye on the mining legislation coming out of Bamako and Niamey over the next year. That’s where the real power shift is being codified. When the laws change, the money changes. And when the money changes, everything else follows.