If you still think the worst team in baseball automatically gets the first pick, I have some news for you. That era is basically dead. It ended with the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, and honestly, the new system is a lot more like a high-stakes casino than a simple reverse-standings list.
Take the 2026 draft cycle. The Chicago White Sox were historically bad in 2025. They were the kind of bad that makes you want to look away, yet they still had to sweat through a lottery just to secure the top spot. They eventually won it, but it wasn't a guarantee. The system is designed to stop teams from "tanking," or losing on purpose to nab a superstar, and it's created a web of rules that would make a tax attorney dizzy.
How the Major League Draft Order Actually Works Now
The draft order isn't just one long list. It's a puzzle.
First, you have the lottery. This involves all 18 teams that didn't make the postseason. The top six picks are decided by ping-pong balls. If you're a non-playoff team, you've got a chance at the number one overall pick, even if you just barely missed the Wild Card. For the 2026 draft, the White Sox had the best odds at roughly 27.7%, followed by the Twins and Pirates.
But there’s a catch. A big one.
You can't just live in the lottery forever. The league implemented "anti-tanking" rules that specifically target teams that stay bad for too long. If you're a team that receives revenue sharing—basically the "small market" clubs—you can't be in the lottery more than two years in a row. If you're a "payor" club (the big spenders like the Yankees or Dodgers), you can't be in the lottery in back-to-back years.
This is why the Colorado Rockies, despite having the worst record in baseball in 2025, were ineligible for a top-six pick in 2026. They had already been in the lottery too much. Instead, the highest they could pick was 10th. It's a brutal reality for a rebuilding franchise.
The Postseason Pecking Order
Once you get past the lottery and the 18 non-playoff teams, the order is determined by how far you went in October.
Teams that lose in the Wild Card round pick before teams that lose in the Division Series. Within those groups, the order is settled by revenue-sharing status and then winning percentage. The World Series winner always picks last in each round—unless they lost a pick due to luxury tax penalties or signing certain free agents.
Why Some Teams Move Down 10 Spots
Money talks in baseball, but it also carries a stick. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) is the league's version of a luxury tax, and if you blow past it, the league hits your draft stock.
For 2026, teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Yankees are facing a 10-pick penalty on their first selection because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold. This means if the Yankees were supposed to pick 25th, they're suddenly sliding down to 35th. It’s a massive blow to the farm system, but that's the price of a $300 million roster.
There is one weird loophole. If a team like the Mets had actually won a top-six lottery pick, they would have kept that pick, and the 10-spot penalty would have applied to their second highest selection instead.
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Bonus Picks and the PPI
Sometimes the draft order grows. You might see "PPI" picks or "Prospect Promotion Incentive" selections. These are basically rewards for being good at developing talent.
If a team puts a top prospect on their Opening Day roster and that player goes on to win Rookie of the Year or finish high in MVP/Cy Young voting, the team gets an extra pick after the first round. In the 2026 order, the Atlanta Braves landed one of these because Drake Baldwin won the NL Rookie of the Year. The Houston Astros got one too, thanks to Hunter Brown's Cy Young finish.
Sorting Through the Chaos of 2026
If you're looking at the list for this summer, here is the basic layout of the top of the first round.
- Chicago White Sox (Lottery Winner)
- Tampa Bay Rays (Lottery)
- Minnesota Twins (Lottery)
- San Francisco Giants (Lottery)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (Lottery)
- Kansas City Royals (Lottery)
After those six, the order reverts back to the reverse standings for the rest of the non-playoff teams. Then come the compensation picks for losing big free agents, followed by Competitive Balance Round A.
Competitive Balance picks are special because they are the only picks in the entire draft that can actually be traded. Every other pick is locked to the team that earned it. If you see a team "buying" a draft pick, it’s always one of these.
The Human Element: Who Are They Picking?
The major league draft order is just a sequence of numbers until you put names to them. In 2026, the talk of the town is Roch Cholowsky, a shortstop from UCLA. He’s basically the consensus number one. Behind him, you’ve got guys like Grady Emerson and Justin Lebron.
When a team like the White Sox wins the lottery, they aren't just winning a slot; they're winning the right to pay a kid a record-breaking signing bonus to hopefully save their franchise.
The draft isn't just a talent grab. It's a math problem. Teams have to balance their "bonus pool"—the total amount of money they are allowed to spend on signing players. If you pick first, you have the biggest pool. If you're the Dodgers and you’re picking late and getting penalized, your pool is tiny.
What You Should Do Next
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just look at the standings. You've got to track the "lottery eligibility" of your favorite team.
Check if they’ve been in the lottery the last two years. If they have, and they aren't a "payee" team, they're going to slide down the board regardless of how many games they lose. Also, keep an eye on the "qualifying offers" in free agency. When a big star leaves a team, that team gets a "sandwich" pick, which shifts the entire order of the second round.
The draft officially kicks off on July 12, 2026. Between now and then, the order will shift slightly as teams fail to sign players or as the final luxury tax calculations come in.
To get a real sense of where your team stands, look up the "Competitive Balance Tax tracker" to see if your first-round pick is at risk of sliding. You should also verify your team's revenue-sharing status; if they're a "payor" club, they have zero margin for error in the lottery cycle. Understanding these tiers is the only way to make sense of why the draft board looks the way it does.