You've probably heard the story before. Every six years, political pundits in D.C. look at Maine and decide that Susan Collins is finally, definitely, 100% toast. They point to the fact that Maine is a blue-leaning state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the 80s (at least statewide). They look at her approval numbers and start writing the political obituary. And then, every single time, she wins by double digits or close to it.
But looking at the maine senate race 2026 polls that have started trickling out, things feel... different. Honestly, the vibe in Maine right now is a mix of fatigue and high-stakes anxiety. We’re still a long way from November 2026, but the early data suggests the "invincible" Susan Collins might be facing her toughest map yet.
The Numbers Everyone is Obsessing Over
The polling right now is kind of all over the place, which is typical for Maine. We’re a quirky state. We like to split our tickets and we absolutely love ranked-choice voting, which makes standard polling a nightmare to get right.
If you look at the Pan Atlantic Research data from late 2025, it tells one story. They had Collins in a dead heat with Governor Janet Mills—both sitting right around 43%. But then you look at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center, and the numbers get way more brutal for the incumbent. Their April 2025 survey found that a staggering 71% of Maine voters believe Collins doesn't deserve another term. That includes a majority of Republicans.
Let that sink in.
The Approval Gap
- Morning Consult: 38% Approve / 54% Disapprove (A record low for her).
- Zenith Research: 40% Favorable / 47% Unfavorable.
- UNH Survey Center: 12% Favorable / 58% Unfavorable (This one is the outlier, but it's a loud one).
Now, does a 12% favorability rating mean she’s going to lose? Not necessarily. People can dislike a politician and still vote for them because they dislike the alternative even more. It happens all the time. But it shows the "brand" of Susan Collins as the moderate, reliable bridge-builder is under a ton of pressure.
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The Janet Mills Factor
The biggest shift in the maine senate race 2026 polls happened when Governor Janet Mills finally stopped playing "will-she-won't-she" and jumped into the race in October 2025.
Mills is a heavyweight. She’s term-limited as Governor, she has high name recognition, and she has a massive fundraising machine. National Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, basically begged her to run. Why? Because she’s the only person who can match Collins’ "Maine-first" aesthetic.
The primary isn't a walk in the park for Mills, though. She’s facing a real challenge from the left. Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran from Sullivan, has turned into a bit of a progressive folk hero. He’s running a populist, "New Deal Democrat" campaign that has caught fire with younger voters.
Early primary polls from December 2025 showed Mills leading Platner 47% to 37%. That’s a lead, sure, but a 10-point gap for a sitting Governor against a political newcomer is actually kind of wild. It shows there’s a real hunger for something new in the Maine Democratic party.
Why 2026 is a Different Beast
Maine is the only state in the country represented by a Republican Senator that went for Kamala Harris in 2024. Collins is the last of a dying breed: the "blue-state Republican."
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Usually, she survives by convincing enough Democrats and Independents that she’s a check on her own party. But in a mid-term year with a Republican back in the White House, that "check and balance" argument is getting harder to sell.
Basically, the 2026 race is becoming a referendum on the national GOP. Collins has tried to maintain her independence—voting against some of the more controversial cabinet picks and high-profile bills—but the "middle ground" is getting awfully narrow.
The Independent Streak
- She voted against Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary.
- She voted against Kash Patel for the FBI.
- But she also voted for a majority of the administration's other picks.
This "split the difference" strategy is making both sides mad. Hardline Republicans think she’s a traitor, and Democrats think her "no" votes only happen when they don't actually change the outcome. It's a tough spot to be in when you're 73 and asking for a sixth term.
The Ranked-Choice Wildcard
We can't talk about maine senate race 2026 polls without mentioning Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV). It changed everything here.
In 2020, Collins actually won a majority on the first round, so RCV didn't even kick in. But if the 2026 race is as tight as the polls suggest—with 14% or 15% of voters currently undecided—we could see a scenario where nobody hits 50% on election night.
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If there's an Independent or a third-party candidate in the mix (like David Evans), those second-choice votes are going to decide who goes to Washington. In a state that's trending blue, that usually favors the Democrat.
What’s Actually Going to Happen?
If you’re looking for a certain answer, you won't find one yet. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both shifted this race to a "Toss-up" recently. That’s a big deal. Usually, Collins starts the cycle as "Leans Republican."
Her campaign is already sitting on nearly $7 million in cash as of late 2025. She’s going to spend a fortune to remind Mainers of all the federal money she’s brought home as Chair of the Appropriations Committee. For a lot of voters, that "seniority" argument is more important than national politics.
But Janet Mills and Graham Platner are also raising millions. This is probably going to be the most expensive election in Maine history.
Actionable Insights for Following the Race
- Watch the Primary: If Graham Platner keeps gaining ground on Mills, it could force the Governor to move further left, which might help Collins in the general election.
- Ignore National Polls: Focus on Maine-specific pollsters like Pan Atlantic or UNH. National firms often miss the nuance of the 2nd Congressional District vs. the 1st.
- Follow the Money: Collins usually wins the fundraising battle, but if Mills stays competitive, it’s a sign the "seniority" advantage is fading.
- Check the Undecideds: That 15% of undecided voters in the current polls are the ones who will actually decide this thing. They tend to be late-breakers who value local issues over DC drama.
The 2026 Maine Senate race is going to be a long, messy, and incredibly expensive fight. Whether Collins can pull off one more "miracle" win remains to be seen, but for the first time in a decade, the data suggests her seat is truly up for grabs.
Keep an eye on the voter registration numbers in the 2nd District; if the Republican lead there softens, Collins loses her primary base of support. You should also watch for any potential Independent candidates who might enter the race by the June deadline, as they could trigger the ranked-choice redistribution that traditionally hurts Republican incumbents in blue-leaning states.