If you’re staring at your suitcase right now wondering if "sunny Spain" is a lie, I get it. Madrid in mid-January is a bit of a mood. Honestly, most people show up here expecting Mediterranean breezes and end up shivering in a light denim jacket because they didn't realize the city is basically sitting on a giant plateau.
It’s high. It’s dry. And right now, it’s kinda chilly.
The current Madrid 10 day forecast is showing us a bit of a rollercoaster. We are moving away from the bone-dry clear skies of early January and heading into a stretch that’s going to require an umbrella, which, for Madrid, is actually a bit of a rarity. If you're planning to be in the city between now and January 24th, here is the ground truth on what you’re actually going to feel when you step out of your hotel.
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The Immediate Outlook: Rain is Coming
Let's look at the next few days. Today, Wednesday, January 14, we’re seeing a high of about 52°F (11°C). That’s actually pretty decent for a Madrid winter afternoon if the sun is out. But don’t get too comfortable.
Tomorrow, Thursday the 15th, and Friday the 16th are looking damp. We’re talking light rain through most of the day with highs dropping slightly to 47°F and 49°F. It’s not a monsoon, but it’s that annoying, misty Spanish rain that makes the granite sidewalks in Malasaña super slick.
Humidity is hovering around 86%. In a dry city like this, that much moisture in the air makes the 40-degree nights feel significantly colder than the number suggests.
Weekend Vibes: Saturday and Sunday
By the time we hit Saturday, January 17th, the rain starts to taper off, but the mercury isn't going back up. We’re looking at:
- Saturday: Partly sunny, high of 45°F, low of 35°F.
- Sunday: Clouds moving back in, high of 46°F, low of 35°F.
There is a tiny, tiny chance of some "frozen precipitation" (let's not call it a blizzard, it’s more like slushy rain) on Saturday night. If you're heading out to celebrate the Fiestas de San Antón, which starts around the 15th, you'll definitely want a heavy wool coat.
The Second Half: Freezing Temps and FITUR
As we move into next week, things get interesting. Monday the 19th and Tuesday the 20th are going to be some of the coldest days of the year so far. We’re looking at overnight lows hitting 31°F (around -1°C).
Basically, if you’re leaving a tapas bar at midnight, you’re going to see your breath.
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Then we have FITUR. This is the massive International Tourism Fair at IFEMA, and it kicks off on Wednesday, January 21st. If you’re one of the 150,000+ professionals heading to the fair, the forecast for that opening block (Jan 21-23) is calling for more light rain and highs stuck in the high 40s.
Friday, January 23rd, looks particularly messy. We're seeing a mix of rain and snow with a high of only 44°F. It’s unlikely to stick in the city center—Madrid’s urban heat island usually prevents that—but it’ll be a cold, wet slog if you’re commuting to the pavilions at IFEMA.
Why the Madrid Forecast is Often Misunderstood
Madrid's climate is "Continental-Mediterranean." That’s a fancy way of saying it has the hot summers of the south but the biting winters of the north.
The biggest mistake travelers make is checking the "average" and thinking it applies to the whole day. In Madrid, the diurnal temperature swing is huge. It might be a gorgeous 55°F at 2:00 PM when you're eating cocido madrileño in the sun, but by 6:00 PM, that temperature drops like a stone.
The Wind Factor
You also have to account for the wind coming off the Sierra de Guadarrama. The forecast might say 45°F, but if there's a 9 mph breeze from the northwest (which is exactly what's predicted for Saturday the 24th), it’s going to feel like 35°F.
The local saying is: "El aire de Madrid es tan sutil que mata a un hombre y no apaga un candil." (The air of Madrid is so subtle it kills a man but doesn't blow out a candle.) It’s a bit dramatic, sure, but it perfectly describes that piercing, thin winter air.
Packing for This Specific 10-Day Window
Don't bring your heavy-duty Arctic parka unless you really run cold, but don't think a hoodie will cut it either.
- Waterproof Footwear: With rain forecast for 5 of the next 10 days, leave the suede boots at home. You want something with grip.
- The "Capa" Strategy: Layers are everything. A thermal base layer, a sweater, and a windproof/waterproof outer shell.
- Scarves are Mandatory: Look at any local at a bus stop right now. They are all wearing scarves. It’s the unofficial uniform of a Madrid January.
Real-World Travel Impact
If you're planning to visit the Royal Palace or the Prado, the next 10 days are actually great because the rain keeps the outdoor crowds thin. Just be aware that the Chamartín station expansion is still in full swing. If your travel involves high-speed trains to the north, give yourself an extra 20 minutes; the construction combined with a rainy commute can turn the station into a bit of a maze.
Navigating the Next 10 Days
If you're looking for the "sweet spot" in this forecast, aim for Sunday, January 18th or Monday the 19th. These days look the driest, even if they are cold. It’s the perfect weather for walking through El Retiro park—the light in Madrid during a crisp winter afternoon is actually some of the best you'll see all year.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the AEMET (Spanish State Meteorological Agency) app daily, as they are the most accurate for local micro-climates.
- If you’re attending FITUR, pack a compact travel umbrella; the walk between the Metro and the IFEMA entrance can be surprisingly wet.
- Book indoor activities (like the Avatar: The Experience at Espacio Delicias or a flamenco show at Corral de la Morería) for the 15th, 16th, and 22nd to avoid the heaviest rain windows.
Stay warm, grab a chocolate con churros at San Ginés when the rain starts, and enjoy the city while the summer crowds are nowhere to be found.