It is January 2026, and the halls of the Élysée Palace feel different. The "Jupiterian" energy that defined the early days of the Macron president of France era has shifted into something more complicated. Honestly, if you look at the headlines, you’d think the country was in a permanent state of collapse. But that's only half the story.
Emmanuel Macron is currently navigating the twilight of his second and final term. He can’t run again in 2027. This makes him a "lame duck" by American standards, but in the French Fifth Republic, a president never truly loses their sting until the moving trucks arrive. Right now, he is caught between a domestic parliament that basically hates every budget he proposes and a global stage where he is still trying to play the hero of Europe.
The Domestic Deadlock: Why the Math Doesn't Work
The biggest thing people get wrong about the current state of the Macron president of France administration is the idea that he’s still "in control" of the country's daily life. He isn't. Not really.
Ever since the snap elections he called back in 2024—a move many experts, including Christopher Weissberg, called a "dissolution that plunged the country into crisis"—the National Assembly has been a mess. It’s split three ways between the left-wing NFP, Macron's own centrist Ensemble, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).
As of early 2026, the revolving door of Prime Ministers has been dizzying. We've seen Michel Barnier come and go, followed by François Bayrou, and most recently, Sébastien Lecornu. Lecornu was even reappointed in late 2025 just days after quitting because nobody else could get a budget through.
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The core of the problem? Money.
France is staring at a massive fiscal deficit, the highest in the EU. Macron wants to cut spending; the left wants to tax the rich; the right wants to cut immigration costs. Nobody agrees. This has left the president with an approval rating hovering around 15–16%. That is remarkably low, even for a French president, and it puts him in the same "unpopularity" territory as his predecessor, François Hollande.
The "Global President" Pivot
While he struggles to pass a budget at home, the Macron president of France persona remains a heavyweight on the international scene. It’s a classic French move: when you can’t win at home, go win abroad.
Just last week, on January 8, 2026, Macron gave a major speech at the 31st Conference of Ambassadors. He talked about "strategic autonomy"—his favorite buzzword—and warned that Europe must not become a "vassal" to larger powers.
- He is currently pushing the "Coalition of the Willing" to support Ukraine.
- He just met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss security guarantees.
- He is planning a major state visit to India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
You’ve probably noticed that while he’s a lightning rod for criticism in Paris, he’s still the guy the world calls when they want to talk about European defense. It’s a weird duality. He’s the "President of the World" during the day and a "Lame Duck" by dinner time.
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The Le Pen Shadow and the 2027 Problem
Every move Macron president of France makes now is viewed through the lens of 2027. He is terrified of his legacy being the guy who handed the keys of the Élysée to Marine Le Pen.
He’s tried to take the wind out of her sails by moving to the right on things like immigration, but it hasn't really worked. Instead, critics say he has "normalized" far-right rhetoric. The "Republican Front"—that old alliance where voters of all stripes would unite to block the far-right—is looking more fragile than ever.
The reality is that Macron is racing against time. He wants to "futureproof" the EU with integrated capital markets and a unified military strategy before he leaves. But as Angela Merkel once reportedly complained, he often creates a "blizzard of ideas" with very little follow-through on the execution.
What’s Actually Happening on the Ground?
If you walk through Paris today, you don't necessarily feel the "paralysis" the news talks about. The trains still run (mostly). The cafés are full. But there is a deep "democratic malaise."
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People feel like their votes in the snap elections weren't respected because Macron refused to appoint a Prime Minister from the winning left-wing coalition for over a year. That’s where the 82% disapproval rating comes from. It’s not just about the pension age being 64; it’s about a feeling that the guy at the top isn't listening.
Actionable Insights: How to Follow the French Transition
If you are watching the Macron president of France saga to understand global markets or European security, here is what you need to track over the next six months:
- Watch the 2026 Budget: If Lecornu fails to pass a stable budget, we might see another motion of no confidence. This would leave France in a "technical" government mode where they just spend what they spent the year before, which would freak out the bond markets.
- The India Visit: Macron’s upcoming trip to India is a huge deal for defense contracts (Rafale jets and submarines). It’s how he keeps the French economy afloat while domestic reforms are stalled.
- The Successor Race: Keep an eye on figures like Édouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal. As Macron’s influence fades, the fight to be the "centrist" heir will get ugly.
- The "Coalition of the Willing": Watch how much French hardware actually ends up in Ukraine. This is Macron’s way of proving France is still the military leader of the EU.
Basically, the Macron president of France era is ending not with a bang, but with a very long, very loud argument. He’s still trying to "transform" France, but the country is currently more interested in just trying to "manage" the day-to-day. It’s a fascinating, messy, and very French conclusion to a decade of disruption.
For those tracking European stability, the real test isn't whether Macron can pass a new law—it’s whether he can keep the country from tilting entirely toward the extremes before he hands over the keys in May 2027.