Ever looked at a ticker and felt like you were watching a high-stakes poker game? That's the vibe with the Lundin Mining share price lately. It’s a wild ride, honestly. If you’ve been tracking it on the TSX or the Stockholm exchange, you’ve seen the numbers jump around like crazy, especially as we kick off 2026.
Just a few days ago, on January 13, the price was sitting around C$33.36. It dipped a bit from the day before, which is typical for a stock that’s sensitive to every little sneeze in the copper market. People get obsessed with the daily fluctuations, but if you look at the bigger picture, Lundin has been on a bit of a tear. We’re talking about a company that was trading way lower just a year ago. Now, it’s flirting with 52-week highs.
The copper obsession and why it matters
Basically, if you’re betting on Lundin, you’re betting on copper. Sure, they do gold, nickel, and zinc, but copper is the engine. And the engine is revving.
The world is hungry for it. Think EVs, AI data centers, and the massive grid upgrades everyone is talking about. Analysts like the ones at J.P. Morgan are throwing around numbers like $12,500 per metric ton for copper prices by mid-2026. That’s a huge tailwind for the Lundin Mining share price. When copper goes up, Lundin’s margins expand fast.
But here is the thing: it’s not just about the market price. It’s about what they’re actually pulling out of the ground.
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Caserones and the Chilean factor
Last year, Lundin made a big move by bumping up its copper production guidance. They ended 2025 looking at a range of 319,000 to 337,000 tonnes. A lot of that credit goes to the Caserones mine in Chile.
I was reading through their Q3 2025 report—yeah, I’m that kind of person—and they were highlighting how much better Caserones is performing than they initially thought. They’re finding higher grades, and the cash costs are dropping. When you can produce more for less, the share price usually follows.
However, it’s not all sunshine. Chile is a complicated place to mine. You’ve got environmental regulations, water rights issues, and political shifts that can make investors nervous. Lundin has managed it well so far, but it’s always a risk that’s lurking in the background.
The Eagle has flown: Cleaning up the portfolio
In a move that surprised some but made total sense for others, Lundin just finished selling off its Eagle mine and Humboldt mill to Talon Metals. This happened right at the start of January 2026.
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They walked away with about 275 million shares of Talon, which gives them a roughly 19.8% stake. Why does this matter for the share price? It’s a "clean-up" move. It turns Lundin into more of a pure-play copper and gold story. Investors like simplicity. They don't want a "jewelry box" of random assets; they want a focused strategy.
What the "Smart Money" is saying
If you look at the analyst ratings, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, but mostly positive. Goldman Sachs recently boosted their target for Lundin to C$35.80. Jefferies is even more bullish, looking at C$38.00.
- Scotiabank bumped their target to $31.00 recently.
- National Bank Financial is sticking with an "Outperform" rating.
- Zacks has them at a "Hold" right now, mostly because the stock has already run up so much.
It’s a classic tug-of-war. The bulls see a copper deficit and massive growth from the Vicuña District projects on the border of Argentina and Chile. The bears worry that the stock is getting ahead of itself and that a global slowdown could crush metal demand.
The dividend and the buybacks
Lundin isn't just reinvesting everything back into the dirt. They’ve been pretty consistent with shareholder returns. They just paid out a dividend of C$0.0275 in late December.
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On top of that, they’ve been buying back their own shares. In 2025 alone, they dropped about $150 million on buybacks. That reduces the number of shares out there, which, in theory, makes each remaining share more valuable. It’s a signal that management thinks the stock is undervalued, even when it’s near record highs.
Is the price "too high" right now?
Honestly, it depends on your timeline. If you’re looking at next Tuesday, who knows? The Lundin Mining share price could drop 5% because of a bad inflation report or a strike at a mine.
But if you’re looking at the next two to five years, the supply-demand gap for copper is scary. There simply aren't enough new mines coming online to meet the demand for the "green energy" transition. Lundin is sitting on some of the best undeveloped assets in the world through their 50% stake in the Vicuña projects.
Actionable insights for the regular investor
If you're watching the Lundin Mining share price, don't just stare at the daily chart. That's a recipe for a headache. Instead, watch these three things:
- Copper spot prices: If copper stays above $10,000/t, Lundin is a cash machine.
- Vicuña progress: Keep an eye out for the integrated technical study coming in Q1 2026. This is the big one. It will tell us exactly how massive (and expensive) their next growth phase will be.
- Operational costs: Mining inflation is real. Keep an eye on their "C1 cash costs." If they can keep these under $2.00/lb, they are in a very strong position.
The market has a way of overreacting to short-term news. When the share price dips on a "nothingburger" news day, that’s usually when the long-term players start nibbling. Just remember that mining is a cyclical, risky business. It's not a "set it and forget it" index fund. You've got to stay informed.
Next steps for you: Check out the latest copper price trends on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and compare them to Lundin's recent price movement. Also, mark your calendar for February 19, which is when their sister company, Lundin Gold, drops year-end results—it often sets the tone for the whole Lundin group's sentiment.