You’ve probably seen the tickers lately. As of mid-January 2026, the Lundin Gold stock price has been doing some pretty interesting dances on the TSX and Nasdaq Stockholm. On January 16, we saw shares closing around $115.97 CAD on the Toronto exchange, which is honestly wild when you look at where this thing sat just a year or two ago.
It’s up significantly—we're talking over 160% in a 12-month trailing window. But if you're just looking at the "last price" on your phone, you're missing the real story.
Gold is currently sitting near $4,000 an ounce in the early weeks of 2026. That kind of macro environment makes a Tier-1 asset like Fruta del Norte in Ecuador look like a money-printing machine. However, there’s a lot of noise about "peak production" and political risk that's actually creating some weird entry points for people who know how to read a balance sheet.
What’s Actually Moving the Lundin Gold Stock Price Right Now?
Basically, it comes down to three things: throughput, the "Lundin Premium," and those fat dividends.
Just a few days ago, on January 12, Jamie Beck (the CEO) dropped the 2025 year-end numbers. They hit 498,315 ounces for the year. That's a solid win, right in the middle of their guidance. But the market didn't just cheer for the gold. It cheered because they did it while processing a record 5,271 tonnes per day (tpd) in the fourth quarter.
The 5,500 Tonne Target
Management isn't stopping there. They want to hit 5,500 tpd in 2026.
If they pull that off, the "reserve life" conversation changes. You've got to realize that Fruta del Norte is a bit of a freak of nature geologically. Most gold mines are lucky to see 1 or 2 grams per tonne. Lundin is pulling 8.7 to 9.5 grams per tonne. When you increase the speed of the mill at those grades, the cash flow doesn't just grow; it explodes.
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The Dividend Machine Nobody Expected
A few years ago, gold miners were known for burning cash. Lundin Gold changed that narrative.
They’ve instituted a policy that is kinda legendary in the mid-tier space. You get a $0.30 USD quarterly fixed dividend, but then they tack on a variable component. In Q3 2025, they actually bumped that variable payout to reflect 100% of normalized free cash flow.
- Fixed Dividend: $0.30 per share
- Variable Yield: Subject to FCF (often 50% or more)
- Total Q3 Payout: $0.80 per share
That’s a massive return for a mining stock. It’s why you see the Lundin Gold stock price holding steady even when the broader market gets jittery. Investors aren't just buying gold; they're buying a yield play.
The "Ecuador Risk" vs. Reality
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Ecuador.
If you read the headlines, you'd think the country is too unstable for a long-term investment. Honestly, that’s where the "smart money" differs from the retail crowd. Lundin has managed to become the largest taxpayer in the country. They aren't just a mine; they’re a pillar of the Ecuadorian economy.
In late 2025, the government merged its energy and environment ministries. Some saw this as a red tape nightmare. But for Lundin, it actually seems to be streamlining their expansion permits for Fruta del Norte Sur (FDNS). An investment decision on FDNS is expected in the first half of 2026. If that gets a "green light," the stock might finally break through that $125 CAD resistance level.
Costs Are Rising—But Context Matters
You might see analysts pointing out that All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) are trending toward $1,110 to $1,170 per ounce for 2026.
Yes, that’s higher than the $800-ish we saw a while back. But look at why. It's not because they're being inefficient. It's because at $4,000 gold, the royalties and statutory profit-sharing payments they owe the government and employees go up. It’s a "good problem" to have. Your margins are still massive when you're selling for $4,000 and spending $1,100.
What to Watch in the Coming Months
If you're tracking the Lundin Gold stock price, mark February 19, 2026, on your calendar. That’s when the full 2025 audited financials come out.
We already know the production numbers, but the "Free Cash Flow" figure will be the real kicker. That determines the next variable dividend.
- Exploration Spends: They are dumping $85 million into exploration this year. That is the largest program in their history. They are looking for the "next" Fruta del Norte right next door.
- The Mill Expansion: In the second half of 2026, the board will decide if they want to push the mill beyond 5,500 tpd.
- The Gold Hedge: They’ve been riding the spot price high, but any significant correction in gold under $3,000 would obviously put pressure on the stock.
Honestly, the stock feels like a core holding for anyone who wants gold exposure without the "junior miner" heart attacks. It’s a mature, well-run operation that finally knows how to reward its owners.
Next Steps for Investors:
Review the Q4 2025 production report released on January 12 to see if the mill throughput targets of 5,500 tpd are actually achievable by mid-year. If the throughput holds steady at the current record levels, the projected 2026 production of 475,000 to 525,000 ounces looks conservative. Watch for the February 19 earnings call to confirm the cash balance—which was $494 million in September—as this will dictate the size of the upcoming variable dividend.