If you were watching the New York Yankees in early 2024, you saw a miracle. Luis Gil wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation. Then Gerrit Cole’s elbow barked in Spring Training, and suddenly, this skinny kid with a lightning bolt for an arm was starting on Opening Week.
He didn't just fill a spot. He dominated.
Fast forward to January 2026, and the conversation has shifted. It’s weird. People are actually talking about moving the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year to the bullpen. Some insiders are even whispering about trade bait.
How did we get here?
The 2025 Reality Check: Injury and the "Dip"
Most fans remember Gil’s 15-win rookie season. It was electric. But 2025 was a different story, mostly because we barely saw him.
A high-grade lat strain suffered in February 2025 basically torpedoed his year. He didn’t make it back to the Bronx until August 3 against the Marlins. On paper, his 2025 return looked fine—a 3.32 ERA over 11 starts isn’t exactly a disaster.
But look closer.
The "stuff" wasn't the same. In 2024, Gil was a strikeout machine, sitting in the 77th percentile with a 26.8% K-rate. In 2025? That number plummeted to 16.8%. That is a massive red flag for a guy who lives and dies by the power pitch.
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His velocity told a story, too. He averaged 96.6 mph in his rookie year. By late September 2025, he was occasionally dipping into the 93s.
Why the Strikeouts Vanished
It wasn't just the arm strength. It was the whiffs—or lack thereof.
- 2024 Whiff Rate: 29% (Elite)
- 2025 Whiff Rate: 21.5% (Well below league average)
Basically, hitters weren't scared anymore. They were putting the ball in play, and while Gil’s ERA stayed low due to some luck and a solid Yankees defense, his peripheral stats started screaming for help. His walk rate actually climbed to 5.21 BB/9. You can't walk five guys a game and stop striking people out. That's a recipe for a 5.00 ERA real quick.
The Bullpen Debate: Is He a Starter or a Weapon?
There’s this growing narrative that Luis Gil is destined for the 'pen.
Honestly, it makes sense if you’re looking at the roster. With Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón expected to miss the start of the 2026 season, the Yankees are desperate for stability. Gil is many things, but "stable" isn't the first word that comes to mind.
The argument for the bullpen is simple: high effort, high walks, limited third pitch.
His changeup is... fine. It sits around 91 mph, which is hard. Like, really hard. Sometimes it doesn't have enough separation from his 95 mph fastball. When he's "on," it's a 70-grade heater that rises through the zone. When he's tired? It's a flat mid-90s ball that MLB hitters eat for breakfast.
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The Financial Side of the Equation
The Yankees just settled with Gil for the 2026 season, avoiding arbitration with a $2.16 million deal.
That’s a steal.
Even if he’s a high-end reliever, $2.1 million is nothing in today's market. But if he’s a mid-rotation starter? It’s the best value on the team. Brian Cashman is many things, but he's not someone who gives away cheap, controllable talent unless he's getting a massive haul in return.
What Most People Get Wrong About His "Stuff"
You hear it all the time: "He just needs to find the zone."
Actually, Gil’s problem in 2025 wasn't just finding the zone; it was where in the zone he was living. According to Baseball Savant data, Gil is a flyball pitcher—inducing air balls on nearly 70% of his contact. In Yankee Stadium, that is a dangerous game to play.
He relies on three pitches:
- 4-Seam Fastball (50%): The bread and butter. It has elite "rise" but lost about 1.5 mph of zip post-injury.
- Slider (26%): This is his best secondary. It’s an "extreme flyball" pitch with short, glove-side cut.
- Changeup (24%): This is the swing-and-miss pitch that disappeared in 2025.
If that changeup doesn't come back to its 2024 form, Gil is essentially a two-pitch pitcher who walks too many people. That’s a reliever.
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The 2026 Outlook: Rotation or Bust?
As of right now, Luis Gil is projected to be in the Opening Day rotation.
With Max Fried and newcomer Ryan Weathers leading the charge while Cole and Rodón rehab, Gil is the "X-factor." If he finds that 97 mph heater again, the Yankees have a top-tier rotation. If he stays at 94 mph with no strikeouts, he might find himself in Scranton or the bullpen by June.
It’s a make-or-break year for the Azua native.
He’s under team control until 2029, so there’s no rush to move him. But the Yankees' window is now. They can’t afford to wait for a pitcher to "find it" while they're chasing the Orioles and Blue Jays in a brutal AL East.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're tracking Gil this season, don't just look at the ERA. That's a trap.
Watch the K/9. If he isn't striking out at least 9 batters per nine innings, he's in trouble. Watch the velocity in the 4th and 5th innings. If it drops from 96 to 93, his lat or his stamina isn't back to 100%.
Lastly, keep an eye on his walk-to-strikeout ratio. In 2025, it was nearly 1-to-1 at times. That is unsustainable for a winning pitcher.
The talent is there. The "electric" arm is real. But being a New York Yankee means you don't get a long leash, even if you have a Rookie of the Year trophy on your mantle.
To see how Gil's role evolves, you should monitor the Yankees' transaction wire during Spring Training. If they sign another veteran starter like Lucas Giolito, it’s a clear signal that the team doesn't fully trust Gil’s arm to hold up for 162 games. Check his Statcast "Run Value" on his fastball early in April; if it's in the red, expect a move to the bullpen sooner rather than later.