Look, the conversation around Lucid Group stock price usually goes one of two ways. You’ve got the die-hard fans who think Peter Rawlinson is the next Da Vinci, and then you’ve got the skeptics who see a burning pile of Saudi cash.
Honestly? Both sides are kinda right, which is what makes this stock so frustrating to watch.
We just saw the 2025 numbers wrap up, and they were... complicated. Lucid doubled its production to 18,378 vehicles. That sounds like a win until you realized they actually lowered the goalposts twice during the year just to hit that mark. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $11.00. It’s a far cry from the $50+ highs of the SPAC era, and if you’re holding bags from back then, my heart goes out to you.
But there's more to the story than just "line go down."
The Gravity Problem (And the Gravity Solution)
For the longest time, Lucid was just the "Air" company. Great sedan, incredible range, but nobody buys sedans anymore. The real pivot for the Lucid Group stock price started when the Gravity SUV finally began rolling off the line in late 2025.
SUVs are where the money is. Everyone knows it.
The Gravity isn't just another EV; it’s basically a rolling laboratory for Lucid’s efficiency tech. At the recent CES 2026, the buzz wasn’t just about the leather seats. It was about the partnership with Uber and Nuro. They’re talking about a Gravity Robotaxi. Yeah, a luxury autonomous SUV that might start roaming San Francisco streets later this year.
Why the market is staying cautious:
- Cash Burn: In Q3 2025 alone, they lost nearly $1 billion. That is an insane amount of money to spend to make $337 million in revenue.
- The "PIF" Safety Net: The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) is basically the only reason the lights are still on. They recently bumped up a credit line to $2 billion, which keeps the company funded into 2027.
- The $50k Midsize Gap: Right now, Lucids are too expensive. The "Earth" or whatever they end up calling the midsize SUV needs to hit that $50,000 price point by the end of 2026. If they miss that deadline, the stock is likely headed back to the basement.
Numbers That Actually Matter Right Now
If you're looking at the Lucid Group stock price on a daily basis, you're going to get whiplash. On January 7, 2026, the stock fell over 5% in a single session while the rest of the tech market stayed relatively flat.
Why? Because the "Zacks" crowd and other analysts are looking at the EPS (Earnings Per Share) estimates for the upcoming February 24 earnings call. They’re expecting a loss of about -$2.39 per share.
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That’s a tough pill to swallow.
However, the revenue side is actually looking up. Analysts are eyeing $430 million for the quarter—an 83% jump from the same time last year. The growth is there. The efficiency is there. The profit? Well, that’s still a ghost.
Is the Saudi Connection a Trap?
The PIF owns roughly 60% of Lucid. On one hand, you have a sugar daddy with literal trillions of dollars. On the other hand, some investors are terrified that the PIF will eventually just take the company private at a low-ball price, leaving retail investors out in the cold.
It's a valid fear.
But look at the factory in King Abdullah Economic City. The Saudis aren't just in this for a quick stock flip; they want to build a domestic auto industry. They need Lucid to survive. That gives the Lucid Group stock price a sort of "floor" that other EV startups like Fisker or Lordstown never had.
The Competition is Getting Weird
Tesla is still the big dog, obviously. But Rivian produced over 42,000 vehicles last year. Lucid is still trailing behind the "other" American EV startup. And don't even get me started on BYD. The Chinese giant sold over 2 million EVs globally last year.
Lucid is playing a premium game in a market that is increasingly looking for "cheap and good enough."
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What to Watch in 2026
If you're trying to figure out if you should buy, sell, or just walk away, there are three things that will dictate the Lucid Group stock price over the next twelve months.
First, the Gravity ramp-up. We need to see if they can actually build 30,000+ of these things without the wheels falling off (metaphorically). Second, the software. Owners have been complaining about buggy infotainment for years. If they don't fix that, the luxury "feel" disappears.
Third—and this is the big one—is the midsize platform launch.
We’re talking about a car that competes with the Model Y. If Lucid can prove they can build a $50k car with 400 miles of range, the stock isn't staying at $11.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio:
- Wait for February 24: Don't jump in before the Q4 earnings. The volatility around that EPS miss could give you a much better entry point.
- Watch the Credit Line: If Lucid starts drawing down that $2 billion PIF credit line too fast, it’s a sign of production hell.
- Verify Delivery-to-Production Ratios: In 2025, they produced 18,378 cars but only delivered 15,841. That gap means cars are sitting on lots. You want to see that gap close in 2026.
Keep an eye on the 13F filings from institutional investors. If the big boys start loading up on these $11 shares, it might be the signal that the "bottom" is finally in. Until then, keep your position size small and your expectations realistic.
Next Steps for Investors:
Review the upcoming February 24 earnings call transcript for specific updates on the "midsize platform" tooling in the Arizona factory. Check the current short interest levels on LCID; a high short interest combined with a slight earnings beat in February could trigger a significant short squeeze.