Snow in Louisville is always a bit of a gamble. One minute you're looking at a dusting, the next you're digging out of a four-inch "surprise" accumulation that the models didn't quite catch. Honestly, it’s just the nature of living in the Ohio Valley.
As of right now, Friday, January 16, 2026, things are getting interesting. If you've looked out the window this morning, you probably saw the flakes starting. We're currently sitting at a crisp 25°F, but with that south wind kicking at 9 mph, it feels more like 16°F. Not exactly patio weather.
The Immediate Snow Forecast for Louisville
The National Weather Service just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for north-central Kentucky. They're specifically looking at that corridor along and north of I-64. Basically, if you're commuting today, it’s gonna be slick.
Today's high is actually expected to hit 44°F, which sounds like a lot until you realize the snow is already here. There's a 40% chance of snow during the day and a 45% chance tonight. We aren't talking about a blizzard—most spots are looking at less than an inch—but because the pavement is so cold (around the low 20s), even a dusting is sticking immediately. That’s the real danger. It’s not the depth; it’s the ice rink forming on the untreated side streets.
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Why this winter feels so weird
People on Reddit have been complaining that it’s been a "snowless" winter, but that’s not entirely true. We had a massive cold snap in the first ten days of January, even if Christmas was a weirdly warm 65 degrees.
We’re currently in a weak La Niña phase. For Louisville, that usually means a few things:
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- Wetter than normal conditions (which we're seeing).
- Temperatures that swing wildly between "wear a t-shirt" and "where are my thermal socks?"
- A higher chance of "clipper systems" that drop quick, light snow.
Meteorologist Bryce Jones from WDRB noted that in weak La Niña years, Louisville averages about 11.2 inches of snow for the season. That’s slightly below our long-term average of 13.4 inches. We’re basically right on track for a standard, messy Kentucky winter.
Looking at the Weekend and Beyond
Don’t put the shovel away just yet. There is a second round of snow potentially coming Friday night into Saturday. The probabilities for getting more than 2 inches are low—under 25%—but we could see some "snow squalls." These are those briefly intense bursts where visibility goes to zero and you wonder if you’ve been transported to the Arctic for ten minutes.
Saturday morning will stay cold with a high of 32°F and a 20% chance of lingering flakes. After that? The moisture shuts off, but the freezer door stays open.
The Deep Freeze Schedule
By Sunday and Monday, the snow chances drop to near zero, but the temperatures are going to bottom out. We are looking at morning wind chills in the single digits from Sunday through Tuesday.
- Sunday: High of 28°F, Low of 16°F.
- Monday: High of 21°F, Low of 11°F.
- Tuesday: High of 30°F, Low of 10°F.
It’s that classic "cold and dry" pattern that settles in after the front passes.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
If you're in the 502, don't overthink the totals. Focus on the timing.
First off, check your tire pressure. These 10-degree nights will make your "low pressure" light pop on faster than you can find your ice scraper. Second, if you have outdoor pipes that aren't insulated, tonight is the night to let them drip. We are hitting 27°F tonight, but that drop to 11°F on Monday is the real pipe-burster territory.
Lastly, keep an eye on the Friday evening commute. Even if the snow stops, the "flash freeze" effect on wet roads is a real thing here. Give yourself an extra fifteen minutes. You probably won't need the heavy-duty salt for an inch of snow, but a little sand or grit on your front steps wouldn't hurt before the Saturday morning freeze sets in.