It is mid-January 2026, and if you live in Seattle, you’ve probably spent the last week oscillating between hiding under a high-quality umbrella and wondering why the sun is suddenly blinding you at 2:00 PM. We just hit a bizarre little "heat wave" where temperatures flirted with 60°F in some spots. Honestly, it felt more like early May than the dead of winter.
But anyone who has spent more than a week in the Pacific Northwest knows that a single sunny Tuesday is usually a trap.
The long range seattle forecast for the rest of winter 2026 is a weird, shifting puzzle. We are currently dealing with a "weak" La Niña. In the weather world, "weak" is a frustrating word. It means the usual patterns—cooler temperatures and more rain—aren't guaranteed. They are more like "suggestions" from the Pacific Ocean that the atmosphere might or might not follow.
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What the Models Are Actually Saying for Early 2026
Right now, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is looking at a 75% chance that we transition into "ENSO-neutral" conditions by the March-May window. Basically, the La Niña that has been steering the ship is losing its grip.
For the immediate future—meaning February and March—the outlook is a bit of a toss-up.
- February 2026: Most models lean toward slightly warmer-than-average temperatures. We're talking maybe 1 or 2 degrees above the usual 49°F highs.
- Precipitation: This is the big one. After a fairly dry mid-January, the taps are expected to turn back on. February usually sees about 16 days of rain, and 2026 is looking to stay right on that soggy track, potentially even a bit wetter than the historical average of 3.5 inches.
- The "Neutral" Shift: As we move into March, the loss of La Niña means the "jet stream" becomes less predictable. We could get hit by a random atmospheric river, or we could see more of those "Super Ridges" Cliff Mass likes to talk about that bring us those crisp, clear, but chilly days.
The Snow Drought and the Mountain Problem
If you’re a skier or just someone who likes looking at the Olympics from your office window, the current situation is kind of depressing. As of mid-January, roughly 81% of SNOTEL stations in Washington are reporting a "snow drought."
We’ve had plenty of water, but it’s been falling as rain at higher elevations than we’d like.
At Snoqualmie Pass, the snow depth has been hovering around 25-30 inches, which sounds like a lot until you realize the "normal" for this time of year is significantly higher. The long range seattle forecast suggests we might see one last "winter punch" in early February. This is often the time when a blast of Fraser Valley air meets a moisture plume from the Pacific. If that happens, we get the classic Seattle Snowpocalypse. If not? We’re looking at a very short, very slushy ski season.
Why the Forecast Keeps Changing
Predictions for Seattle are notoriously difficult because we are caught between the Olympic Mountains and the Cascades. Local experts like those at the University of Washington’s weather department often point out that "averages" are misleading here.
You can have a month that is "average" in temperature, but it consists of two weeks of record-breaking heat and two weeks of record-breaking cold.
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Current trends show that since the 1990s, La Niña winters in the PNW have actually been getting wetter. Even if it's not "cold" enough for snow in Ballard or Capitol Hill, the mountains are likely to see a late-season recovery in precipitation. But it’s a race against the clock. By the time we hit late March, the sun is high enough in the sky that any snow that does fall starts melting almost immediately.
Practical Steps for the Next 60 Days
Forget the groundhog; he has no power here. If you are trying to plan your life around the Seattle weather for the next two months, here is the reality.
Expect the "Big Dark" to linger, but with more frequent breaks of clear, cold air as the La Niña fades. You'll want to keep your gutters clear. February is historically a month for heavy, wet rain that can overwhelm drainage systems if they're still full of last November's maple leaves.
If you are planning a mountain trip, aim for the first half of February. That looks like our best window for any significant cold-air intrusion that could actually stick. By March, we're likely transitioning into a very standard, "gray-and-drizzly" spring that will feel endless but won't be particularly extreme.
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Check your car's tire pressure now. These 20-degree temperature swings we've been seeing between day and night are notorious for triggering that annoying "low pressure" light on your dashboard.
Keep the sunglasses in your car, but don't you dare put the heavy coat in storage yet.