Honestly, predicting weather in Southern California is a bit like trying to guess which freeway lane is going to move fastest at 5:00 PM on a Friday. You think you’ve got it figured out, and then everything shifts. Right now, everyone in LA is looking at the sky and wondering if we’re in for another winter of atmospheric rivers or if the "Junuary" sunshine is here to stay.
The long range forecast for los angeles california for early 2026 is currently caught in a tug-of-war between a dying La Niña and a rapidly shifting atmosphere. If you’ve been living here for a while, you know the drill: the experts say it’ll be dry, then suddenly you’re buying new windshield wipers because a "thousand-year storm" just decided to park itself over Santa Monica.
The La Niña Fade-Out
We’ve been under the thumb of La Niña for a bit now. Usually, that means "bone dry" for us. But the Climate Prediction Center is currently tracking a transition. They’re seeing a 75% chance that we move into "ENSO-neutral" territory between now and March.
Basically, the ocean is losing its grip on our weather patterns.
When we hit that neutral phase, things get weird. The predictable "dry south, wet north" pattern breaks down. Instead of a steady stream of storms or a constant ridge of high pressure, we get volatility. For the next few weeks, the long-term models are leaning toward warmer-than-average temperatures. We’re talking highs in the low 70s for most of the basin, with the valleys potentially creeping higher.
📖 Related: The Betta Fish in Vase with Plant Setup: Why Your Fish Is Probably Miserable
But don't pack away the umbrellas.
Historical data from the National Weather Service suggests that even "weak" La Niña years—which is what we're wrapping up—can be surprisingly wet for Southern California. In fact, since the 90s, we’ve actually seen more "wet" La Niñas than the old textbooks said we should. It's a bit of a climate curveball that keeps local meteorologists up at night.
What the Models Are Saying for Spring 2026
Looking further out into April and May, the long range forecast for los angeles california suggests we might be heading for a toastier-than-usual spring. The ridge of high pressure that’s been hovering over the Southwest is expected to stay somewhat stubborn.
Here is the vibe for the coming months:
👉 See also: Why the Siege of Vienna 1683 Still Echoes in European History Today
- Late January/Early February: Expect a "storm door" to crack open. While the first half of the month was dry, the end of February is historically one of our wettest windows. Models show a potential for "rainy periods, some heavy" toward the final week of February.
- March: This is the transition month. As the ENSO-neutral state takes over, we could see a few "inside sliders"—those cold, windy storms that drop more snow in the mountains than rain in the city.
- The Heat Factor: By April, the signal for above-normal temperatures gets much stronger. If you’re planning outdoor events, late spring looks like a winner for sunshine, though the "May Gray" will likely still do its thing along the coast.
The Wildcards: MJO and Atmospheric Rivers
You've probably heard of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It’s a bit of a weather celebrity lately. Basically, it’s a cluster of clouds and rain that travels around the equator. When it hits a certain "phase," it can kick-start an atmospheric river that aims right for Point Conception.
Right now, the MJO is active.
This is the big reason why you can't just look at a "seasonal outlook" and assume it'll be dry. One single atmospheric river can dump 50% of our annual rainfall in 48 hours. The current long-range signals don't show a massive "Pineapple Express" yet, but the setup for late February is looking suspicious.
Why This Matters for Your Weekend
If you're a hiker, this is the "Golden Window." The hills are green, the air is crisp, and the rattlesnakes are still mostly snoozing. But keep an eye on those late-February dates. If the models hold, we’re going to see a sharp dip in temperatures—down to the 50s for highs—around the 20th of February.
✨ Don't miss: Why the Blue Jordan 13 Retro Still Dominates the Streets
Water-wise, we’re in an okay spot, but the "drought" talk is never far away. Because the forecast leans toward a drier-than-normal summer, whatever rain we get in the next six weeks is basically all we’re getting until next November.
Actionable Steps for Angelenos
Instead of just checking the app every morning, here is how to actually prep for the rest of the 2026 wet season:
- Check your drains now. Seriously. If the late-February storms hit as predicted, you don’t want to be clearing leaves out of your gutters in a downpour.
- Plan your desert trips for March. The transition to ENSO-neutral usually makes for spectacular, slightly cooler-than-normal days in Joshua Tree before the April heat sets in.
- Don't trust the "average." Los Angeles rarely gets "average" weather. We get three weeks of nothing and then a month’s worth of rain in a weekend. Stay flexible.
- Watch the snow levels. If you're heading to Big Bear or Wrightwood, the late February window is likely your last chance for "real" fresh powder before the spring melt begins in earnest.
The long range forecast for los angeles california isn't a guarantee, it's a map of probabilities. Right now, the map says "enjoy the sun, but keep the boots by the door." The transition out of La Niña is always a bit of a rollercoaster, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates, which usually drop on the third Thursday of every month. They offer the best look at these long-term shifts before they show up on your local news.