Long Island weather is notoriously fickle, and honestly, if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the "ocean effect" can either be your best friend or your worst nightmare. Right now, we’re looking at a classic January mess. Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, is shaping up to be one of those days where you start with an umbrella and end with a snow shovel.
Basically, we’re stuck in a transition zone.
The current weather update long island shows a damp, chilly start with light rain and a temperature hovering right at 32°F. It’s that raw, bone-chilling kind of cold that feels heavier because of the 97% humidity. If you’re heading out to grab bagels in Huntington or Patchogue this morning, watch out for slick spots. Even though it’s "rain" right now, that ground temperature is a real gamble.
The Afternoon Shift: Rain to Snow
Here’s the deal. We’ve got a coastal system sliding up that’s playing tag with a cold front.
According to the latest data, the high for today is only hitting 36°F. That’s not much of a window for melting anything. By this afternoon, that 60% chance of precipitation is expected to pivot. We’re looking at a 72% chance of snow during the daytime hours as the wind shifts to the northeast at about 8 mph.
It’s not a blizzard. Let’s be clear about that.
But it’s enough to make the Southern State Parkway a headache. The forecast suggests the rain will mix with and eventually turn over to all snow as the column of air above us cools down. Tonight, the low drops to 27°F, and the chance of snow lingers at 45%.
What’s Happening on the Water?
If you’re a mariner or just someone who likes to walk the beach at Montauk or Robert Moses, the conditions are pretty gnarly.
- Current Wind: East at 3 mph (shifting NE later).
- Visibility: Dropping to 1 to 3 nautical miles in the snow.
- Seas: We’re seeing waves around 4 to 5 feet, occasionally hitting 6 feet in open waters.
There’s actually a Small Craft Advisory in effect through Monday afternoon. The water temperature is hovering in the low 40s—specifically 45°F about 30 miles south of Islip and a much colder 37°F near Montauk.
Why This Winter Feels Different
People keep talking about how 2025 ended on a super dry note. We had a nearly 10-inch rainfall deficit last year, and December was the coldest we've seen since 2010.
💡 You might also like: The 2004 Sumatra Earthquake Death Toll: Why the Numbers Keep Shifting
Now, in 2026, we’re seeing these "Miller-B" type storms. These are the ones that redevelop off the coast and make life difficult for meteorologists because the rain-snow line sits right over the LIE. A few miles north or south makes the difference between a slushy driveway and a winter wonderland.
Experts like the team at the National Weather Service in Upton are watching this closely because the Arctic air mass behind this Sunday system is the real story. Once this snow pulls away, we are staring down a "deep trough" that’s going to usher in some seriously bitter air.
The "Bitter" Next Steps
By Monday and Tuesday, the conversation is going to shift from "how much snow did we get?" to "why is my heater running constantly?"
We are expecting wind chills to dip into the single digits by Tuesday morning. This isn't just "cold"—it's the kind of weather that freezes pipes and kills car batteries.
Actionable Advice for Long Islanders:
- Salt the walkways now. Since we have light rain falling before the freeze, that water is going to turn into a sheet of ice tonight when it hits 27°F.
- Check your tire pressure. These 30-degree swings in temperature usually trigger that annoying dashboard light.
- Bring the pets inside. Even the ones with thick coats aren't meant for the single-digit wind chills coming early next week.
- Watch the bridges. The Throgs Neck and Whitestone always freeze before the main roads. If you’re commuting off the island tomorrow morning, give yourself an extra 20 minutes.
This weather update long island confirms that while today's snow might only be a few inches of slushy accumulation, the subsequent freeze is the real winner—or loser, depending on how much you hate the cold. Stay warm out there and keep an eye on the sky as that rain turns white later this afternoon.
Be prepared for the rapid temperature drop tonight. Ensure your outdoor faucets are covered and your vehicle's antifreeze levels are sufficient before the sub-freezing lows set in after midnight.