So, if you’re like most of us out here on the Island, you probably woke up this morning, looked at the frost on the windshield, and immediately started wondering when we’re getting that mid-winter break. It’s January 13, 2026, and honestly, the air has that sharp, "slap-you-in-the-face" kind of bite. But if you’ve been tracking the long island 7 day forecast, things are about to get weirdly comfortable before they get potentially messy.
Winter in Nassau and Suffolk is never just one thing. It’s a mood.
The Mid-Week "Fake Out" and What’s Actually Coming
Right now, we’re looking at a classic January oscillation. Today, Tuesday, is holding steady with highs around 45°F. It’s sunny-ish, but that southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph makes it feel more like a brisk walk through a meat locker if you aren't moving fast enough.
But check out Wednesday. We’re actually hitting the upper 40s. Some spots might even tickle 50 degrees. Sounds great, right? You’re thinking about finally taking the dog for a long walk at Jones Beach or maybe hitting the trails at Bethpage without four layers of fleece.
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Don't get too comfortable.
By Wednesday night, the humidity starts climbing—reaching up to 84%—and that’s when the rain moves in. It’s not a "romantic drizzle" situation either. We're looking at a 50% chance of a soaking rain that’s going to make Thursday morning’s commute on the LIE a total nightmare.
The Thursday Shift: Rain to Snow?
This is where the long island 7 day forecast gets tricky. Thursday starts out mild at 45°F, but as the day progresses, the wind shifts to the northwest. That’s the "cold air chasing the moisture" scenario every Long Islander dreads.
By Thursday night, the mercury is going to crater. We’re talking a drop from the mid-40s down to a frigid 22°F.
- Precipitation: Rain turns to snow showers.
- Accumulation: Right now, the models are suggesting about an inch.
- The Problem: It’s that flash-freeze potential. Anything that was wet at 4:00 PM is going to be a sheet of black ice by 10:00 PM.
Why "Average" Weather is a Myth on the Island
Honestly, people look at the "average" temperature for January on Long Island—which usually hovers around 35°F—and they think they know what to expect. But averages are just the middle point between extremes. This week is a perfect example. We go from 48°F on Wednesday to a high of only 31°F on Friday.
That’s a 17-degree swing in 24 hours. Your sinuses are going to feel that. Your heating bill is definitely going to feel that.
Friday is going to be the "real" winter day of the week. Even with the sun poking through, that 31°F high is going to feel much colder thanks to the WNW winds. If you're heading out to the East End for some quiet winter sightseeing, dress for the Arctic.
The Weekend Outlook: More Flurries on the Horizon
If you were planning on a dry weekend, you might want to keep the shovel near the garage door. Saturday stays cold with a high of 39°F, but Saturday night brings another 40% chance of snow showers.
Sunday, January 18, looks like a carbon copy. Morning snow showers, then clearing up with a high of 36°F. It’s not a "Stock up on bread and milk" blizzard, but it’s enough to make the driveway annoying.
Real Talk on the Long Island 7 Day Forecast
We have to talk about the "La Niña" factor. The National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center have been tracking a weak La Niña this season. Usually, that means the East Coast stays a bit warmer than usual, but it also makes the storm track more erratic.
Basically, we're stuck in a "see-saw" pattern. One day you’re wearing a light jacket at the Tanger Outlets, and the next you’re digging out your heavy-duty parka because the wind is whipping off the Sound at 20 mph.
Here is the breakdown of what to actually expect:
The early part of the week is all about the "thaw." Enjoy the 40s while they last. The transition happens Thursday night. That is the pivot point. Friday through next Monday, we’re back in the freezer. Highs will struggle to get past the mid-30s, and lows will consistently stay in the low 20s.
If you're a commuter, Wednesday night and Thursday night are your danger zones. Rain followed by a freeze is statistically more dangerous on our roads than a straightforward three-inch snowfall.
Actionable steps for the next 7 days:
- Check your tire pressure now. These 20-degree temperature drops will trigger your "low pressure" light faster than you can say "Suffolk County."
- Salt the walkway Wednesday night. Don't wait for the rain to turn to ice on Thursday. Getting a base layer of salt down can prevent that bottom layer of ice from bonding to the concrete.
- Top off the washer fluid. Between the salt spray on the Parkway and the intermittent snow showers, you're going to go through a gallon of the blue stuff by Sunday.
- Plan indoor activities for Friday. With a high of 31°F and gusty winds, it’s a "stay inside and order a pizza" kind of day.
This week is a reminder that on Long Island, the weather doesn't just change; it resets. Keep an eye on the sky, stay off the roads during the Thursday night flash-freeze, and maybe keep an extra scraper in the trunk. You’re going to need it.