Look at the headlines and you'll see a lot of noise about "death from above" and billion-dollar jets. It’s easy to get swept up in the cinematic drama of defense contracting. But if you’re looking at Lockheed Martin corporation stock through that lens, you’re basically watching a trailer instead of the movie.
The real story isn't just about the F-35. It's about a massive, slow-moving machine that has spent decades entrenching itself into the very bedrock of global security. Honestly, it’s less of a tech company and more of a sovereign-backed utility at this point.
The $179 Billion Elephant in the Room
Most investors fixate on quarterly earnings. That's a mistake. With Lockheed, the number that actually matters is the backlog. As of early 2026, that backlog sits at a staggering $179 billion. Think about that. That is more than two and a half years of guaranteed work already on the books.
You’ve got a company that doesn't really have to "find" customers in the traditional sense. The customers—mostly the U.S. government and its allies—are literally waiting in a multi-year line.
- F-35 Dominance: In 2025, they delivered a record 191 jets. To put that in perspective, that’s five times the production rate of any other allied fighter.
- The PAC-3 Surge: Just this month (January 2026), Lockheed inked a deal to triple production of the PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement. They’re jumping from 600 units a year to 2,000.
- Global Footprint: It’s not just the Pentagon. Nations like Italy, Denmark, and Finland are aggressively expanding their fleets.
Why the Stock Isn't Just a "War Play"
People love to say defense stocks only go up when things go south globally. While geopolitical tension—like the recent operations in Lebanon or drone engagements over Poland—certainly puts a spotlight on the sector, Lockheed’s value proposition is actually about predictability.
In early 2025, the stock took a hit because the Air Force slightly trimmed its F-35 request for fiscal year 2026. The market panicked. Shares dropped about 5%. But that's the "noise" I was talking about. While one branch of the military might tweak an order, the overall trajectory of the U.S. defense budget is pointing toward $1.5 trillion by 2027.
The Dividend Machine
If you’re holding Lockheed Martin corporation stock, you’re likely in it for the income. They just authorized a fourth-quarter 2025 dividend of $3.45 per share.
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That is the 23rd consecutive year they’ve hiked the payout.
Management also just topped off the tank on share buybacks, adding another $2 billion to the authorization, bringing the total to roughly $9.1 billion. They are essentially returning cash to you as fast as the Pentagon pays it out.
The "Fixed-Price" Trap
It isn't all smooth sailing. Lockheed has been getting dinged by "reach-forward losses" on classified fixed-price contracts. Basically, they agreed to build something for a set price, inflation or supply chain snags hit, and now they have to eat the extra cost.
In the second quarter of 2025, they recorded pre-tax losses of $1.6 billion. That’s a massive chunk of change. It reminds us that even a giant isn't immune to the reality of rising labor costs and the complexity of building things that have never been built before.
What to Watch in 2026
We’re seeing a shift toward what they call "21st Century Security." This is basically marketing-speak for "making old hardware talk to new software."
- Space Dominance: Their work with the Space Development Agency (SDA) is growing. They’re building the "Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture"—a mouthful that basically means a mesh network of satellites for missile tracking.
- Hypersonics: This is the next frontier. If Lockheed can own the "Golden Dome" integrated missile defense initiative, they move from being a jet maker to being the literal shield for the entire country.
- The PAC-3 Expansion: Watch the margin on those 2,000 missiles. Tripling production is hard. If they can maintain efficiency while scaling that fast, the Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment will become the stock's primary engine.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
Don't treat Lockheed Martin corporation stock like a high-growth tech play. It's a defensive anchor.
If you're looking to enter a position, keep an eye on the $550-$570 range. We’ve seen significant support there as the market digests the recent record-breaking F-35 delivery news.
Watch the "Fixed-Price" narrative. If the company reports more major losses on classified programs in the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, it might provide a temporary dip. For long-term holders, these dips have historically been buying opportunities because the underlying government demand doesn't change based on one bad contract.
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Verify the Dividend Capture. If you want that $3.45 (or whatever the next hike brings), make sure you're holding before the ex-dividend date, usually early in the month of the quarter's end.
Diversify within Defense. Don't put everything in Lockheed. While they lead in air superiority, companies like General Dynamics own the sea with the Columbia-class subs, and Northrop Grumman is the king of the B-21 stealth bomber. A balanced defense portfolio should include a mix of these "primes" to hedge against specific program cuts.
The reality is that as long as global tensions remain high and the U.S. continues to modernize its aging fleet, Lockheed Martin remains the primary beneficiary of a massive, non-negotiable government spending cycle.