Lilly Second Quarter 2025 Results Call: What Most People Get Wrong

Lilly Second Quarter 2025 Results Call: What Most People Get Wrong

Honestly, the energy around Eli Lilly right now is just different. It’s not just a pharmaceutical company anymore; it’s a cultural phenomenon that happens to report earnings. When the Lilly second quarter 2025 results call kicked off on August 7, the numbers were basically screaming. We’re talking about a 38% jump in revenue to $15.56 billion. That is a massive number for a company of this size.

If you were listening to the call, you could almost hear the confidence in David Ricks’ voice. The CEO wasn't just talking about beating expectations—which they did, by a lot. They were talking about a fundamental shift in how they’re meeting global demand for their incretin therapies. You've probably heard of Mounjaro and Zepbound by now. They aren't just drugs; they are the primary engines behind this 2025 surge.

The Massive Numbers Behind the Q2 Call

The earnings per share (EPS) hit $6.31 on a non-GAAP basis. To put that in perspective, Wall Street was expecting something closer to $5.59. That’s a 12.88% surprise. In the world of mega-cap stocks, that kind of "beat" is usually followed by a ticker tape parade, but the market is a fickle beast.

Even though Lilly crushed it, the stock actually took a dip right after the call. Why? Well, investors are sorta worried about valuation. When a stock has run up as much as Lilly has, even a "perfect" quarter sometimes isn't enough to keep the momentum going without a breather. But if you look at the fundamentals, the story is incredibly strong.

Net income for the quarter was $5.66 billion. That is nearly double what they brought in during the same period last year. It’s rare to see a company with a market cap this large growing its bottom line at that speed.

Breaking Down the Revenue Engines

Mounjaro is the undisputed heavyweight champion here. Worldwide revenue for this single drug increased 68% to $5.20 billion in just three months. Most of that—about $3.30 billion—came from the U.S. markets.

Then you have Zepbound. The growth there is even more astronomical if you look at the percentages. U.S. revenue for Zepbound leaped 172% year-over-year to $3.38 billion. Basically, if you can make it, people will buy it. The biggest bottleneck for Lilly hasn't been demand; it’s been the physical ability to put medicine in vials and get them to pharmacies.

What Really Happened During the Lilly Second Quarter 2025 Results Call

During the call, management spent a lot of time talking about "realized prices." This is an important nuance that a lot of casual observers miss. While volume was up 42%, the actual price Lilly gets for each dose dropped by about 6%.

This happens because of a few things:

  • Higher rebates and discounts for insurance companies.
  • Changes in the "mix" of who is buying the drug (government vs. private).
  • The launch of 2.5 mg and 5 mg single-dose vials in the U.S. to help with supply.

Essentially, they are trading a little bit of price for a whole lot of volume. And when your volume is growing at 46% in the U.S., you can afford to take a small hit on the per-unit price.

The Manufacturing Miracle

One of the most impressive stats from the Lilly second quarter 2025 results call was the production update. They produced 1.6 times more saleable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024. That’s a lot of factory floor expansion in a very short amount of time.

They’ve been pouring money into facilities in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, and they even mentioned upcoming sites in Virginia and Texas. They aren't just hoping the demand stays high; they are betting billions of dollars on it.

The Pipeline: It's Not Just About Weight Loss

It’s easy to get tunnel vision with the obesity drugs, but the Q2 call highlighted some other major wins.

  1. Kisunla (Donanemab): This is their big Alzheimer’s play. It’s now launched in 13 countries and got a new dosing schedule approved by the FDA.
  2. Verzenio: Their cancer drug grew 12% to $1.49 billion. It’s a steady, reliable performer that gets overshadowed by the GLP-1 hype.
  3. Jaypirca: This one is for mantle cell lymphoma and CLL. Sales hit $123 million, but more importantly, it showed great results in head-to-head trials against competitors.
  4. Orforglipron: This is the "holy grail"—an oral (pill) version for obesity. They shared strong Phase 3 data and are looking to submit it for approval by the end of the year.

If you’re an investor, you love to see this. It means if the "weight loss craze" ever slows down, the company isn't a one-trick pony. They are diversified across oncology, neuroscience, and immunology.

Why the Guidance Raise Matters

Lilly didn't just report the past; they promised a better future. They raised their full-year revenue guidance by $1.5 billion. They now expect to bring in between $60 billion and $62 billion for the full year 2025.

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They also bumped up their non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $21.75 to $23.00. When a company raises guidance mid-year, it’s a signal that they have a very clear line of sight into their supply chain. They know exactly how many doses they can produce and exactly how much they can sell.

Actionable Insights for Investors and Observers

If you're trying to make sense of the Lilly second quarter 2025 results call, here’s the "so what" for the next few months:

  • Watch the Supply Chain: The stock price is currently a function of how many doses Lilly can physically manufacture. Any news about new plants coming online early is a huge catalyst.
  • Monitor the Formulary Changes: There was a mention that CVS excluded Zepbound from some template plans starting July 1. This could be a small headwind in Q3, so don't be shocked if those specific numbers look a little different next time.
  • Keep an Eye on the Oral Pills: The data for orforglipron is arguably more important for the long-term than the current injectable sales. A pill is much easier to distribute globally than a cold-chain injection pen.
  • Pay Attention to the "Non-Incretin" Growth: If Verzenio and Kisunla continue to gain traction, Lilly’s valuation might start to look more reasonable to the skeptics.

The reality is that Lilly is currently the leader in the most important drug class of the decade. While competition from Novo Nordisk and others is real, Lilly's Q2 results proved they are executing at a level that is very hard to beat.

Next Steps for You:
If you're an investor, review the 10-Q filing for the specific breakdown of international vs. domestic margins. If you're a healthcare consumer, watch for the increased availability of the single-dose vials, as Lilly indicated these will be the primary way they bridge the supply gap through the end of 2025. Finally, keep an eye on the upcoming FDA decision dates for their expanded cardiovascular indications for tirzepatide, as this could open up an even larger patient pool.