It is Saturday, January 17, 2026, and if you're looking for a Ligue des Champions today match, you’re actually a few days early. The frantic energy of the mid-week nights hasn't kicked in yet. We are currently in that weird, tense "lull" before Matchday 7 of the league phase kicks off on January 20. But don't let the empty schedule fool you. Behind the scenes, the math is getting scary for some of Europe’s biggest names.
Honestly, the new format has turned January from a "dead month" into a total survival gauntlet. We used to be done with the group stages by December. Now? We're heading into the final two rounds of this massive 36-team table, and the "big hitters" aren't all safe. Not even close.
Why the League Table is a Mess Right Now
Arsenal is currently sitting pretty at the top with 18 points. They’ve been perfect. Six games, six wins. Mikel Arteta has basically turned the Emirates into a fortress, and their +16 goal difference is essentially an extra point at this stage. But look further down and things get chaotic.
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Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City are hovering in the top four, but the real story is the battle for that 8th spot. Why does 8th matter? Because the top eight teams skip the playoff round entirely. They go straight to the Round of 16. Everyone from 9th to 24th has to play an extra two-legged playoff in February.
Look at the current standings:
- Real Madrid is 7th.
- Atlético Madrid is 8th.
- Liverpool is 9th.
Liverpool is literally one goal away from avoiding two extra games in an already bloated season. The stress in those front offices must be through the roof.
The Real Madrid "Crisis" (Sorta)
You've probably heard the noise about Real Madrid this week. They just sacked Xabi Alonso after a brutal stretch, and Álvaro Arbeloa has stepped in. They managed a 2-0 win against Levante today in La Liga, but their European form has been... shaky. They lost 2-1 to Manchester City in their last Champions League outing back in December.
Kylian Mbappé scored a penalty today to bring his league tally to 19, but the Bernabéu crowd is restless. They expect to be 1st, not 7th. Their upcoming match against AS Monaco on Tuesday is massive. If they slip, they could fall out of the top eight entirely.
What’s Actually Happening Next Week?
The Ligue des Champions today is quiet, but Tuesday, January 20, is going to be a bloodbath. Here is what the schedule looks like for the start of Matchday 7:
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- Tottenham vs. Borussia Dortmund: This is the headline act. Dortmund just scraped a 3-2 win against St. Pauli today thanks to a 90th-minute Emre Can penalty. They’re sitting 10th in the CL table. Spurs are 11th. Both have 11 points. This is effectively a playoff for the top eight.
- Inter Milan vs. Arsenal: A battle of the heavyweights. Inter is 6th, Arsenal is 1st. If Inter wins, they likely secure a top-eight seed.
- Sporting CP vs. PSG: Sporting has been the "giant killer" of the season, currently sitting 14th. PSG needs a win to keep their top-three status.
- Real Madrid vs. Monaco: As mentioned, this is Arbeloa’s first European test. Monaco is 19th and desperate to stay in the playoff spots.
The Bubble Teams You Should Watch
Everyone talks about the giants, but the real drama is at the bottom of the 24-team cutoff. Teams like PSV Eindhoven (21st), Napoli (23rd), and FC Copenhagen (24th) are clinging to life.
Napoli has been a shadow of its former self in Europe this year, with a -5 goal difference. They travel to Copenhagen on Tuesday. If they lose that, they could legitimately be eliminated before the final matchday. That’s the "beauty" (or the horror, depending on who you support) of the new 36-team single league. There’s no Europa League safety net anymore. If you finish 25th or lower, you are just... out. Done. Go home.
The Travel Factor
One thing nobody talks about enough is the travel. Kairat Almaty (from Kazakhstan) is hosting Club Brugge on Tuesday afternoon. That is a brutal trip for a Belgian side. Kairat is 36th—dead last—but playing in Astana in late January is a nightmare. Don't be surprised if Brugge drops points there, which would be a disaster for their 31st-place standing.
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Actionable Strategy for Matchday 7
If you're following the action or looking at the numbers, here is how to navigate the upcoming week.
Watch the "Goal Difference" early.
In this format, goal difference is the primary tiebreaker. In Matchday 7, if a team like Bayern Munich (2nd) is up 2-0 against Union Saint-Gilloise, they won't take their foot off the gas. They need every goal to stay ahead of PSG and City. Expect high scores in the late stages of these games.
The Tuesday/Wednesday Split.
The schedule is split almost evenly, but the "desperation" games are mostly on Tuesday. Tottenham, Dortmund, Inter, and Arsenal are all playing on the first night. By Wednesday, we’ll already know what the "magic number" of points is to secure safety.
Ignore the "Form" of Domestic Leagues.
Look at Dortmund. They struggled against a bottom-tier St. Pauli today, needing a last-second penalty. Does that mean they'll lose to Spurs? Not necessarily. This season has shown that teams are prioritizing the Champions League "League Phase" money and prestige over domestic consistency.
The road to the Puskás Aréna in Budapest for the final on May 30 starts getting very narrow this week. Keep an eye on that 8th and 24th place line—that’s where the real season is won or lost.
Next Steps to Prepare for Matchday 7:
- Check the official UEFA standings on Monday morning to see if any late injury reports (like Mbappé’s minor knock today) shift the odds.
- Set your alerts for the early kickoff on Tuesday (Kairat vs. Brugge) as it sets the tone for the entire week's math.
- Monitor the weather in Northern Europe; games in Bodø and Copenhagen are expected to be sub-zero, which always favors the home side in the new format.