Lia Thomas is basically the most debated name in swimming history. You’ve seen the headlines, the heated Twitter threads, and the cable news segments. Most of that noise centers on 2022, when she became the first openly transgender athlete to win an NCAA Division I title.
But here’s the thing: the narrative around Lia Thomas before transition is often a mess of cherry-picked stats.
Some claim she was a "mediocre" swimmer who suddenly became a champion only after switching categories. Others argue she was always an elite-level powerhouse. The reality, as is usually the case with elite sports, is buried in the timing of her personal bests and the physiological toll of hormone replacement therapy (HRT).
If you want to understand the actual data—without the political spin—you have to look at her time at Westlake High School and her first three seasons at the University of Pennsylvania.
Was Lia Thomas actually "ranked 462nd" before transitioning?
This is the number that gets thrown around the most. You’ve probably seen it in memes or opinion pieces. It sounds like a smoking gun, right? A jump from 462nd to 1st seems like an impossible leap without some kind of massive biological advantage.
But honestly? That 462nd ranking is pretty misleading.
That specific number usually refers to her ranking in the 200-yard freestyle during the 2019-2020 season. Why does that matter? Because by then, Thomas had already been on HRT for months. She started hormone therapy in May 2019.
By the time she was recorded as "462nd," she was already losing muscle mass and aerobic capacity. She was literally in the middle of a medical transition while still being forced to compete on the men’s team because of NCAA eligibility rules at the time.
If you look at her sophomore year (2018-2019)—the last full season she competed as a male without any suppressing hormones—the picture is totally different.
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She wasn't mediocre. She was an All-Ivy League swimmer.
During that 2018-2019 season, she ranked:
- 65th in the 500-yard freestyle.
- 32nd in the 1,650-yard freestyle (the mile).
- 2nd in the Ivy League for the 500, 1,000, and 1,650 freestyle events.
She was also a top-100 recruit coming out of high school in Austin, Texas. In her freshman year at Penn, she even posted the 6th fastest 1,000-yard freestyle time in the entire country among men. You don't hit those numbers if you're a "benchwarmer."
The high school years at Westlake
Before the Ivy League, Thomas was a standout at Westlake High School. If that name sounds familiar, it's because Westlake is a sports factory. It’s the same school that produced Drew Brees and Nick Foles.
Thomas wasn't just a body in the water there. She was a state finalist.
In the Texas 6A state championships—which is basically the "deep end" of high school swimming—she placed 6th in the boys' events. Swimming in Texas is notoriously fast. Placing top 10 in that state is usually a one-way ticket to a D1 scholarship, which is exactly what happened when she signed with Penn.
Breaking down the "before" and "after" times
To really get what happened to her speed, you have to look at the raw numbers. People talk about "biological advantage," but HRT is a massive physical equalizer.
Take the 500-yard freestyle.
In 2019, before she started blockers and estrogen, her personal best was 4:18.72.
When she won the NCAA title in 2022 on the women’s team, her time was 4:33.24.
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She was nearly 15 seconds slower than her own male personal best.
In the swimming world, 15 seconds in a 500 is a lifetime. It’s the difference between being an elite college athlete and being a very good high schooler.
The drop-off in the 1,650-yard freestyle was even more dramatic. She went from a 14:54.76 as a sophomore male to a 15:59.71 as a senior female. That is a 65-second difference. It’s hard to wrap your head around that much of a performance dip unless you’ve felt what it’s like to have your testosterone levels tank to near zero while trying to maintain 20 hours of training a week.
The 2019-2020 "Limbo" Season
There was a weird year in there that a lot of people forget. During her junior year, Thomas was "out" to her team but was still required to swim in the men's category to maintain her four years of eligibility.
It was a rough time. She told Sports Illustrated she was depressed and felt like she was "faking" it.
Physically, she was a mess. She was undergoing feminizing hormone therapy but still trying to keep up with the men’s training regimen. This is where those "low" rankings come from. Her times were plummeting because her body was changing.
Then COVID-19 hit.
The 2020-2021 season was canceled for the Ivy League. Thomas took that year off school entirely. It was a strategic move—she wanted to make sure she had a full year of HRT under her belt before she ever stepped onto a block for the women’s team, meeting the NCAA’s requirements to a T.
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Complexity beyond the headlines
So, was she a "failed" male athlete? No. The data doesn't support that. She was an elite D1 swimmer in the men's category who was likely headed for a career as a multi-year Ivy League finalist.
Did she get "faster" relative to her peers? Yes.
Going from 65th in the country to 1st in the country is a significant jump in standing. That’s the core of the fairness debate. Critics like Riley Gaines or Nancy Hogshead-Makar argue that even with a 15-second drop in speed, the "skeletal and physiological advantages" of going through male puberty weren't fully erased.
On the other side, advocates point out that Thomas followed every single rule the NCAA put in front of her. She didn't "cheat." She waited. She took the meds. She let her body change.
What the data actually shows
If you’re trying to form an opinion based on facts, here are the three things you sortal have to keep in mind:
- She was a standout before. She was a top-tier recruit and a top-100 national male swimmer before any medical intervention.
- The "462" rank is a partial truth. It’s a real number, but it was recorded after she had already started transitioning.
- She was significantly slower after transition. The hormones worked exactly how they were supposed to—they reduced her strength and speed by a massive margin.
The debate isn't really about whether she was "good" before. She was. The debate is about whether the "reduced" version of an elite male athlete is the same thing as an elite female athlete.
The sports world is still trying to figure that out. Since Lia graduated, World Aquatics (the governing body for international swimming) has effectively banned trans women who went through male puberty from elite competition. The University of Pennsylvania even eventually modified its record books following federal civil rights settlements in 2025.
Basically, the "Lia Thomas" era changed the rules for everyone who came after her.
If you're looking for the next steps in understanding this, look into the specific biological markers that the NCAA and World Aquatics now use for eligibility. You can also research the "legacy effects" of male puberty, which sports scientists like Dr. Ross Tucker have discussed at length regarding aerobic capacity and bone density. Understanding those specific metrics gives you a much clearer picture than any headline ever will.