It has been roughly fourteen months since the world breathed a sigh of relief when a ceasefire was inked in November 2024. But honestly, if you've been following the lebanon and israel news over the last few days, that "peace" feels more like a technicality than a reality.
Just this past week, in mid-January 2026, the sounds of explosions returned to places like Sohmor and Mashghara. The Israeli Air Force carried out a wave of strikes targeting what they call "reconstitution efforts" by Hezbollah. It’s a messy, tense situation where both sides are basically pointing fingers while the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) try to prove they can actually hold the ground.
What Really Happened With the 2024 Ceasefire?
To understand today’s headlines, you have to look at what was supposed to happen. The deal brokered back in 2024 was built on a simple, if optimistic, premise: Hezbollah moves its heavy weapons north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army takes over the south.
By January 8, 2026, the LAF officially declared "operational control" south of the Litani. That sounds great on paper. They even launched a plan called "National Shield" (Dir al-Watan) to start a phased disarmament.
But there’s a massive gap between a government declaration and what’s happening in the actual valleys of South Lebanon. Israel claims Hezbollah is already trying to rebuild its tunnels and weapon caches. In response, the IDF has been conducting what it calls "preventative" strikes. Between January 5 and January 11 alone, multiple Hezbollah operatives were targeted in drone strikes near Jwaya and Khirbet Selm.
The UNIFIL Problem
UN peacekeepers are stuck in the middle. Literally.
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On January 16, 2026, a UNIFIL patrol near the town of Adeisseh found themselves in a terrifying spot. While checking out a suspicious device, an Israeli drone dropped a grenade just 30 meters away from them.
UNIFIL called it a violation of Resolution 1701.
Israel said they were targeting "suspects" near a Hezbollah structure.
This isn't an isolated incident. Just a day later, an Israeli Merkava tank reportedly fired rounds at a UNIFIL position near Kfarchouba. When the people meant to monitor the peace are getting caught in the crossfire, you know the "ceasefire" is hanging by a thread.
Why Lebanon and Israel News Still Matters for Regional Stability
You might wonder why a few drone strikes in a rural village matter to the rest of the world. It’s about the "escalation ladder."
The logic is terrifyingly simple:
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- Israel strikes to prevent Hezbollah from re-arming.
- Hezbollah feels pressured to retaliate to show they aren't "beaten."
- Lebanon’s new reform-minded government, led by a president elected in 2025, loses credibility if they can't stop Israeli jets or disarm the militias.
Right now, Hezbollah is in a tough spot. They've been significantly degraded compared to two years ago. They’re focusing on "domestic issues" and trying to avoid a full-scale war that would finish off what's left of Lebanon's economy. But if Israel continues to strike deep—like the recent hits in the Bekaa Valley—the group might feel they have no choice but to fire back.
The Iran Connection
We also can't ignore the shadow of Tehran.
Experts like Scott N. Romaniuk have pointed out that the Lebanon front is inseparable from Israel's broader conflict with Iran. There is a lot of "round two" talk in Israeli political circles. If Israel feels that Iran is using the lull in Lebanon to funnel new advanced drones or missiles to Hezbollah, the current "low-level" exchange could turn into a regional firestorm overnight.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Border
People often think the border is a clear line with "good guys" on one side and "bad guys" on the other. It’s actually a patchwork of "Blue Line" outposts and disputed hills.
One major sticking point is that Israel hasn't fully withdrawn. Even though the 2024 deal required a total pull-back, the IDF still maintains a presence at five specific border outposts. Lebanon sees this as a violation. Israel sees it as a necessary buffer because they don't trust the Lebanese army to keep Hezbollah out.
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Basically, nobody trusts anyone.
The Lebanese government has removed roughly 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles since late 2025. That is a massive achievement for a military that many thought was too weak to act. Yet, Israel downplays these gains, continuing low-altitude drone flights that keep the population in a state of constant anxiety.
Actionable Insights: How to Follow This Conflict
If you’re trying to make sense of the daily noise, here is how to filter the lebanon and israel news effectively:
- Watch the Evacuation Warnings: When the IDF Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, starts posting specific building maps on social media, a strike is imminent. This is now the standard "de-confliction" method.
- Follow the LAF, Not Just the Militias: The real story in 2026 is whether the Lebanese Armed Forces can sustain their presence in the south. If they pull back, the ceasefire is officially dead.
- Monitor UNIFIL Statements: They are the only relatively neutral eyes on the ground. Their reports on "Blue Line" violations tell you who is actually pushing the boundaries day-to-day.
- Look for "Normalization" vs. "Stabilization": Don't expect a peace treaty. Success in 2026 looks like "quiet," not "friendship."
The window to cement this peace is closing fast. Lebanon has a rare chance to restore its sovereignty, but only if the international community can keep Israel’s "preventative" strikes from turning into a new invasion and if Hezbollah's leadership decides that survival is better than another round of war.
Stay informed by checking updates from the National News Agency (NNA) in Lebanon and military briefings from the IDF, but always compare the two. The truth usually sits somewhere in the middle of the rubble.